CoreTrust’s Post

"For 2024, Hatzius and company expect more of the same. Many economists think the lagged effect of higher rates could yet trigger recession. But Hatzius thinks lags are misunderstood. The lags from rates on the level of output are long, but the lags on the growth of output are short, and are already behind us, he said. So inflation can continue to ebb alongside solid growth as supply recovers further. The latest data haven’t been friendly to Goldman’s forecast. Retail sales were weak in January, and inflation was high. Goldman blamed that inflation on start-of-the-year price hikes that reflect past rather than future trends. Housing costs also rose briskly. But in a 13-page report published Sunday delving into private rent data and Labor Department methodology, Goldman argued that January’s jump was anomalous. There are still plenty of soft-landing skeptics around. Dudley has expected a sizable rise in unemployment and recession. But, Hatzius’s former boss acknowledged, “Things are definitely going Jan’s way.”"

Given the increasing market volatility, I asked my teammate James Bitonte, Senior Portfolio Strategist at Key Private Bank, for his thoughts. He’s a valuable resource for our Florida region. "Market pullbacks, while painful now, are often seen as healthy in hindsight. Here are some reasons for the current volatility:" 1. Unemployment: Unemployment rose to 4.3%. 2. Federal Reserve Actions: The Fed is holding interest rates steady but discussing possible cuts by September. Markets want faster cuts, raising the VIX. 3. Volatility Index Spike: The VIX has spiked to 57, higher than recently but lower than during major crises. 4. 10-Year Interest Rate Drop: The rate fell from 4.4% to 3.67%, increasing bond buying and raising the VIX. 5. Yield Curve Shift: The yield curve is no longer inverted, possibly signaling an end to the recession. 6. Consumer Confidence: Confidence and spending are down, influenced by higher interest rates and rising unemployment. 7. Manufacturing Slowdown: Manufacturing readings below 50 indicate a slowdown. "Despite these issues, the economy remains productive. With geopolitical events, an election year, and current weather conditions, there’s room for speculation. We’re looking for opportunities to reposition allocations, focusing on quality and managing risk." If you have any questions or want to set up an appointment to meet our team, please feel free to reach out. 📲 - (239)257-9638 📧 - jay_santos@keybank.com #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialInsights #PortfolioManagement #MarketAnalysis #WealthManagement #FinancialPlanning #IAmKey

Dunham 2024 Mid-Year Market Outlook: "Choppy Waters Ahead!" Key Takeaways: 1. Consumer Spending and Inflation: Financial strain on consumers with rising delinquencies and falling retail sales may signal lower inflation but could hurt business growth. 2. Real Estate and Wealth: Real estate represents a significant portion of wealth for 99% of households, making them vulnerable to property declines and high interest rates that limit refinancing options. 3. Interest Rates and Yield Curve: Volatile rates and an inverted yield curve hint at economic uncertainty and impact the bond market. 4. Equities and Growth Momentum: Opportunities in undervalued small-cap stocks. Dunham Core Equity Portfolio is adjusting to leverage these opportunities. Explore more in the full report below:

CIO W. Bradford McMillan, CFA, CFP® joined Mornings with Maria and explained, “When you look at the earnings results, which, again, are coming in well ahead of expectations, companies are doing well, and I think the markets are just responding.” Watch the full interview for his thoughts on the latest inflation data, potential Fed rate cuts, and next week’s jobs report. https://lnkd.in/gJxfBjtz #thefed #stockmarket #commonwealth #financialadvisor

David Nelson, CFA CMT, and Chief Strategist at Belpointe, offers an in-depth analysis of the May jobs report, highlighting significant discrepancies between ADP and BLS data and what these differences mean for the labor market. Nelson explores the impact of higher interest rates on #inflation, arguing that the Fed may need to cut rates to address persistent inflation effectively. Nelson also examines how substantial government spending is undermining the Fed's efforts to control inflation, leading to what he describes as an "unsustainable path." Watch now with Jeremy Szafron: https://lnkd.in/gvBscV3m 👈

At East Bay, we approach the future with a practical mindset, understanding that economic and market predictions often miss the mark. Take, for instance, the beginning of 2023: widespread expectations of a US recession and consequent interest rate cuts by the Fed proved to be off-base. To illustrate this, consider this chart showing the S&P 500 estimates from various firms. The disparity between their predictions and reality underscores the frequent inaccuracies in economic forecasting. Stay informed by joining our email list: https://lnkd.in/efWtgn6w #EastBayInsights #MarketRealities #FinancialForecasting

#economy #inflation #deflation #recession #interestrates #bonds #stocks #fixedincome #equitymarkets #softlanding #hardlanding #nolanding Insightful and thoughtful. Agree or disagree, something to ponder. For Canada, the old adage still applies, "When America sneezes, Canada catches a cold." So will the world's still number one economy sneeze? Will Canada catch a cold? Only time will tell, but being on heightened alert seems prudent; plus taking a little profit and rebalancing to target asset allocations seems like a no brainer. Happy Holidays and Happy investing.

Good Life | #MarketUpdate 🔍 How did the market respond to August 5th’s declines? ▪️Last week was the S&P 500’s best week of the year (up 4%). ▪️July retail sales, initial jobless claims, and consumer sentiment suggest cooling growth, but don't indicate an economy in sharp decline. ▪️The Fed's Jackson Hole symposium starts this week, with Fed Chair Powell delivering economic outlook remarks on Friday. Stay up-to-date with our latest insights 👉 https://bit.ly/46UX2UD #FinancialNews #MarketNews #Investing #Finance #MarketInsights #InvestorUpdate #EconomicTrends

It was an uphill battle for #CRE in 2023. Higher interest rates, elevated inflation and the threat of a recession all contributed to a year of turbulence and uncertainty. Despite the challenges, the industry demonstrated bright spots of resilience and adaptability. What does that mean for 2024? Here are 10 Critical Questions we’re asking, along with our predictions for 2024.

In a nuanced analysis, John Beuerlein, chief economist at the Pohlad Companies, delves into the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, juxtaposing economic metrics like inflation and labor market strength. Beuerlein's April 2024 report unveils a cautious approach from the FOMC, indicating a likely rate cut in July amid evolving market dynamics. With insights into member projections and recent economic performance, Beuerlein navigates the complexity of balancing inflation targets and labor market resilience, shedding light on the Fed's deliberate strategy amidst positive economic indicators. Read more on this in this article. #oregonrealestate #portlandrealestate #oregon #oregonrealtor #portlandrealtor #portlandoregon #pnw #commercialrealestateagent #portland #commercialrealestateagent #pdxrealestate #pdx #pdxrealtor #CRE #pnwcommercialrealestate #officespace #warehouse #realestateinvesting #industrialspace #flexspace #commercialproperty #business #land #portlandrealestateagent