International Crisis Group’s Post

Sudan's civil war, which erupted in April 2023, has led to brutal clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), wreaking havoc on Khartoum and its residents. The ongoing conflict has resulted in widespread displacement, a severe humanitarian crisis, and significant damage to the city's infrastructure. 𝐀𝐬 𝐊𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐨𝐮𝐦 𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐰𝐚𝐫, 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐢𝐭 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐩 𝐛𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐨𝐧? https://lnkd.in/d4y4quC2

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime is a historic moment, but Syria’s future hinges on whether the transitional government can unite the country’s many armed factions: the Free Syrian Army (FSA), Kurdish forces (YPG/SDF), Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Jaysh al-Islam, and others. These groups, which have often been at odds with each other during the conflict, now face the daunting task of putting their differences aside for the greater good of Syria. Their visions for the future are diverse—ranging from autonomy for the Kurds to control of key territories, and each faction has unique grievances and alliances. For Syria to rebuild, the transitional government must find a way to create a framework for cooperation and power-sharing that addresses these competing interests. If successful, Syria could begin its long road to recovery, stability, and a more peaceful future. However, failure to reconcile these factions risks prolonging divisions and uncertainty. This is a defining moment for Syria, and the world will be watching closely to see if unity can emerge from years of conflict.

An all-out war in the Middle East, especially in its traditional manner, is unlikely. However, the armed groups involved in this broader conflict will continue to militarize their existence and the domestic politics in which they are engaged. For many more years, many parts of the Middle East will remain in a state of "preparation" of war, whether the threat is real or created. Of course, escalation can lead to unexpected outcomes, but many groups involved in this conflict strategically prefer the continuation of the war or the fear of war without fully committing to it. In certain contexts, such fears of war can be used as a means to establish specific local power structures. To gain a better and more comprehensive perspective, we should also look at war as a means to achieve and impose certain local political objectives, including in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon. As a result of the current war and its escalation in different parts of the Middle East, the internal politics of many countries will have to contend with parties interested in declaring a state of exception and suspending normal political processes. This poses a significant barrier to development, peace, and the addressing of real governance issues.

Sudan is entering the new year still gripped by a war that erupted on April 15, 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Allied forces and external powers also fuel this brutal civil war. Alarm, shock, unfathomable, catastrophic, appalling, devastating—all terms used to describe the 20 months and counting of war that ensued. Sudan is now the largest displacement crisis in the world, the largest child displacement crisis in the world, and one of the largest hunger crises in the world. Looking to 2025, there is little to no respite in sight. The following update details the humanitarian and displacement situation in Sudan as of December 2024: https://bit.ly/4gmTGhd

Reportedly, reinforcements were spotted this morning on the #Damascus - #Homs route, allegedly from the 4th Division. In spite of the fact that the 4th Division has had in the past carried operations in other governorates; but, officially, its mandate is securing the capital – Damascus. Now, this could mean two things: 1) That the battle for Homs is Syria's version of Stalingrad, and its outcome will seal the fate of the country. Therefore, the SAA is heading towards it with full force. 2) These reinforcements may actually make a detour to the Syrian coast along with the SAA forces stationed outside Homs, which will usher in the partitioning of Syria into four autonomous states or a confederation of four semi-autonomous regions. At this juncture, everything is possible. My advice to all Syrians is, don't get too emotional; don't get too attached; politics is a diabolical affair and the craft of the devil. Remember, whatever it may be: This too shall pass!

A Bit of Context Regarding Israeli Maneuvers in the Golan Heights The IDF appears to be establishing its presence in the demilitarized zone between Israel and Syria for the first time since 1974. This buffer zone was created after the Yom Kippur War ceasefire, requiring Israel to withdraw from territories captured during the war and return to pre-war borders, establishing the Alpha (Israeli) and Bravo (Syrian) lines, along with UNDOF to maintain the agreement. Israeli media report that IDF special forces, elite units, and tanks have crossed into the buffer zone and seized key positions after Assad's forces fled. This includes the strategic Syrian side of Mount Hermon, the tallest mountain in the region (2,814 meters or 9,232 feet), offering a vital vantage point. The IDF says this move responds to Syria's chaos, strengthening its positions and providing strategic depth to Israeli border towns amid rebel movements. How long the IDF plans to stay in these areas - that remains unclear.

Africa's Cry for Help: Enforcing Peace Amidst Chaos By Kofi Thompson The unfolding catastrophe in Sudan serves as a stark reminder of Africa's desperate need for a robust and effective peacekeeping force. The wanton destruction, heinous crimes against humanity, and unimaginable suffering inflicted upon innocent civilians by power-hungry warlords and their minions cannot be allowed to continue. It is high time for the African Union to take bold action and establish an elite special forces intervention unit, trained and equipped by the world's most effective military force, the Israeli Defence Forces. This unit would be tasked with intervening in African nations plagued by civil wars, genocide, and other humanitarian crises. The Israeli Defence Forces, renowned for their operational expertise, technological advancements, and adaptability, would provide invaluable training and support to this African Union-led initiative. Their involvement would significantly enhance the unit's capabilities, ensuring a swift and decisive response to emerging crises. We commend Uganda's Army Staff Chief, General Mahoozi Kainerubaga, for his courageous condemnation of the civil war in Sudan. We urge Uganda to provide the nucleus for this proposed elite special forces intervention unit. Their leadership would be pivotal in bringing this vision to life. The international community has a moral obligation to support this endeavour. We owe it to the people of Sudan, and to countless others across Africa who suffer at the hands of ruthless despots and warlords. The time for empty rhetoric and hand-wringing is over; it is time for collective action. Let us rally behind this vision for a more peaceful and stable Africa. Let us empower the African Union to take the lead in protecting its citizens and enforcing peace amidst chaos. The people of Africa deserve nothing less. We must act now. The fate of Sudan, and the future of our beloved continent, depend on it. #AfricanUnionForPeace #PeaceInSudan #IsraeliDefenceForces #UgandaLeadsTheWay #AfricaDeservesPeace #CollectiveActionNow

‘The Axis of Resistance is Over’ Syria in a New Reality After Assad Overthrow w/ Kevork Almassian Bashar al-Assad is no longer the president of Syria after a shocking coup that has left the world wondering: What deal was made behind closed doors? As we wait for answers, Rebranded Al-Qaeda (HTS) has pledged to create a transitional government, and Israel is already ramping up strikes against the Syrian military and expanding its occupation of Syrian territory. Kevork Almassian, Host of Syriana Analysis, noted that the end of the Syrian Government likely means the end of the "Axis of Resistance," as the new government that takes shape is expected to have the interests of the U.S., Israel and Turkey directly involved, which means cutting off the supply lines to Hezbollah and other groups that support the Palestinian resistance. Source links: https://bit.ly/4f6zZsw Follow Kevork Almassian on X, and subscribe to Syriana Analysis on YouTube and Patreon https://lnkd.in/dYM4Kr5D