International Crisis Group’s Post

Lebanon stands at a crossroads. With Hezbollah severely weakened, the Gulf nations have made it clear that their reconstruction aid will require more than rebuilding homes – it will require a commitment to long-term peace and stability. This could mean disarming Hezbollah, empowering the Lebanese Armed Forces, and embracing governance reforms.   https://lnkd.in/gnH7cBJ5

Such a horrible conflict. This is happening today, “a conflict that has caused a vast humanitarian crisis, displacing more than 10 million people and driving parts of the country to extreme hunger or famine.” With “documented summary executions, sexual and gender-based violence, and abductions of women and young men” and likely over 150,000 dead, with civilian populations targeted. Where “there is a high risk of ethnically targeted violations and abuses, including summary executions and sexual violence”. Welcome to Sudan. Again. We could also be looking at Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Myanmar, China, Turkey, Syria, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan. Or the ongoing repression in so many countries like Iran, Afghanistan, Cuba, Yemen, Venezuela and countless more (at least a quarter of the countries in the world). But the world doesn’t really focus on these ongoing conflicts or situations. No one is in the street, no one cares to protest or call them out while so many people suffer or are robbed of even having a chance. https://lnkd.in/eZKzPFCD https://lnkd.in/ee2EAHpH

Here's a brief report on the current security situation in Syria: --- *Security Situation in Syria* *Date:* December 23, 2024 *Overview:* Syria is currently experiencing a volatile and uncertain security situation following the collapse of the Assad regime on December 6, 2024⁽¹⁾. The country is at a historic crossroads, with a mix of hope and chaos as various armed groups and regional powers vie for control⁽¹⁾. *Key Developments:* 1. *Regime Collapse:* The Assad regime fell after swift advances by the Military Operations Command, an armed coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)⁽¹⁾. 2. *Caretaker Authority:* A caretaker authority, composed of officials from the self-styled Syrian Salvation Government, has assumed power⁽¹⁾. 3. *Regional Tensions:* Northeast Syria, including parts of Aleppo, remains under the control of the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)⁽¹⁾. Tensions have risen along the Euphrates River following the expiration of a five-day ceasefire brokered by the US and Turkey⁽¹⁾. 4. *Israeli Involvement:* The UN peacekeeping mission, UNDOF, has observed Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) advancing into Syrian territory in the Golan Heights⁽¹⁾. There have been numerous airstrikes on Syrian military facilities, which Israel describes as defensive measures⁽¹⁾. *Challenges:* - *Humanitarian Crisis:* The security situation has exacerbated the humanitarian crisis, with over one million Syrians displaced since late November⁽¹⁾. - *Political Transition:* The UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, emphasized the need for careful management by both Syrians and the international community to ensure a credible political transition⁽¹⁾. *Conclusion:* The current moment offers a rare opportunity for peace and rebuilding in Syria, but it is fraught with risks⁽¹⁾. The international community must remain engaged to support a stable and inclusive political transition. --- Does this cover what you were looking for, or is there something specific you'd like to add or change? Sources: [1] Syria faces uncertain future after regime’s collapse amid humanitarian ... (https://lnkd.in/dax7RXP9)

As of December 8, 2024, Syria is experiencing a significant escalation in conflict, marking the most intense military activity since 2020. A coalition of rebel forces, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Turkish-backed groups, has launched a rapid offensive, capturing key cities such as Aleppo, Hama, and Daraa. These advances have brought insurgents to the suburbs of Damascus, posing a substantial threat to President Bashar al-Assad's regime. The Syrian government has suffered considerable territorial losses, with its control now limited to central and western regions. The fall of Homs is particularly critical, as it serves as a strategic link between Damascus and the Mediterranean coast, where Russian military bases are located. The loss of this city could sever vital supply lines and further destabilize the regime's hold on power. Internationally, the situation has prompted varied responses. Russia, a key ally of Assad, has conducted airstrikes in support of the Syrian government but has also advised its citizens to consider leaving Syria due to the deteriorating security conditions. The United States has maintained a policy of non-involvement, with President Trump stating that the U.S. should refrain from engaging in the Syrian conflict. The humanitarian situation continues to worsen, with over 90% of the population living in poverty and 80% facing food insecurity. The renewed fighting has exacerbated these conditions, leading to further displacement and suffering among civilians. In summary, Syria is undergoing a critical juncture, with rapid rebel advancements challenging the Assad regime's stability. The evolving conflict has significant implications for regional security and the humanitarian landscape, necessitating urgent international attention and efforts toward de-escalation. Source: The sun, The wall street Journal, AP

Background Aspects of 𝑨𝑳𝑳 𝑬𝒀𝑬𝑺 𝑶𝑵 𝑹𝑨𝑭𝑨𝑯 :- 3 min covering all aspects 👇👇 The phrase "All Eyes on Rafah" has become prominent in recent news, reflecting the global attention on the escalating conflict in Rafah, a city in the southern Gaza Strip. The situation has drawn significant international concern due to intense military operations conducted by Israel, aimed at dismantling Hamas' infrastructure in the area. As of late May 2024, the conflict has entered its eighth month, with Rafah becoming a focal point. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have been conducting targeted strikes in Rafah, which have led to widespread displacement and significant civilian casualties. Over 100,000 Palestinians have been ordered to evacuate, moving to designated humanitarian zones in nearby areas like Khan Younis and Al-Mawasi (Yahoo News – Latest news & headlines) (UPI). The United Nations and various international bodies have raised alarms about the humanitarian crisis. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) recently ordered Israel to halt its military actions in Rafah and to allow humanitarian access, describing the situation as "disastrous. " Despite these orders, Israel has continued its operations, citing the need to meet its security demands (UPI) (ABP Live). Global reactions have been varied, with some countries and organizations calling for immediate ceasefire and international intervention. High-profile figures and celebrities have also joined the call to "bear witness" to the events in Rafah, urging governments to demand a ceasefire and stop arms supplies to the region (Yahoo News – Latest news & headlines). Overall, the phrase "All Eyes on Rafah" encapsulates the urgency and severity of the ongoing conflict, highlighting the need for international attention and action to address the escalating humanitarian crisis.

Source: @VoA US: Geneva's Sudan talks will proceed, with or without Sudanese army August 12, 2024. By Nike Ching FILE - In this photo released by the Sudanese Army on May 30, 2023, Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan visits the troops in Khartoum, Sudan. FILE - In this photo released by the Sudanese Army on May 30, 2023, Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan visits the troops in Khartoum, Sudan. STATE DEPARTMENT — Talks aimed at ending Sudan's 16-month civil war between rival military factions and addressing the dire humanitarian crisis will proceed this week, even without the Sudanese army's participation. On Sunday, consultations between the Sudanese government and the United States in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, ended without an agreement on whether a delegation from the army or the government would participate in the Geneva peace talks, casting doubt on the cease-fire negotiations set to begin on August 14. The United States has invited leaders of the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, to discuss a potential cease-fire. The RSF has confirmed its participation in the talks. “Unfortunately, the SAF has not” accepted the U.S. invitation to take part in the peace talks, State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel told VOA during Monday’s briefing. “Our view is that talks will proceed with or without the SAF to develop shared action plans toward a nationwide secession of violence, opening additional humanitarian access and a robust monitoring and implementation regime,” Patel added. More than a year of fighting between SAF and RSF troops has displaced nearly 10 million people across the Greater Horn of Africa country and left 26 million facing crisis-level hunger. https://lnkd.in/gQbSrVbR

My latest op-ed highlights the urgent need to address the Sudan conflict due to imminent threats of the Horn of Africa plunging into widespread turmoil. With nearly 10 million displaced and over 25 million facing acute hunger, the humanitarian toll is catastrophic. The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has escalated despite numerous failed peace initiatives, exacerbating the suffering of civilians. The risk of the conflict spilling over into neighboring countries is growing, raising fears of a broader regional crisis. The international community’s response has been inadequate and without a credible, enforceable peace process. It’s imperative that peace efforts be coordinated and inclusive, involving not just the warring factions but also the Sudanese public. https://bit.ly/3YKlzJV

General Giora Eiland, former head of Israel's National Security Council and a prominent figure known for his controversial "Generals’ Plan," has strongly criticized the outcome of the recent conflict in the Gaza Strip, calling it a "resounding failure" for Israel and a "victory for Hamas." According to Eiland, not only did Israel fail to achieve its objectives, but Hamas managed to strengthen its position, maintaining control over the region. The ceasefire agreement, mediated by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, includes several phases. Among these are a prisoner exchange involving the release of Palestinian detainees by Israel in return for 33 Israeli citizens, and a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. However, Eiland believes that the agreement will not prevent Hamas from rebuilding its military capabilities. He warned that if Israel were to breach the agreement in the future, it would bear the responsibility for doing so. Introduced by Eiland in September 2024, the "Generals’ Plan" aimed to gain total control over northern Gaza through extreme measures such as forced displacement of civilians and a siege intended to break both fighters and the population. The objective was to destabilize Hamas and reduce casualties among Israeli soldiers. However, the plan failed to achieve its goals and, according to the general, ultimately strengthened the Palestinian movement, demonstrating the ineffectiveness of strategies based solely on force. Eiland’s observations raise questions about the strategies adopted by Israel to address the situation in Gaza. They highlight how the lack of political and humanitarian solutions is fueling a cycle of instability, empowering Hamas, and undermining long-term security. The general’s analysis underscores the need for a reassessment of Israel’s security strategies, sparking debate over alternative methods to ensure lasting peace in the region.

What if Sudan’s warring parties, and their major allies and arms providers, are only getting started? Sounds incredible, given what’s taken place. But it looks possible and maybe even probable. Things are so bad in Sudan that even the Nuba ethnic militia has aligned itself with al-Burhan’s Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF; backed by Egypt) – the very same army that conducted (widely reported) genocidal operations against Nuba civilians.   Today’s situation is absolutely appalling – and may get much worse. After only a year of warfare, Sudan is already a catastrophe of epic proportions: 8.5 million displaced, slaughter even more intense (reportedly) than during Darfur’s earlier genocide, extreme levels of sexual violence (mainly against females, but also males) – and now, famine. It takes your breath away.   Yet there are signs that things are spinning further out of control. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF; backed by the UAE) mercenaries are in the lead and keep gaining ground. They have demonstrated an intense focus on carnage and domination, and certainly not on governing. What if Hemedti’s RSF and al-Burhan’s SAF both draw from former President al-Bashir’s playbook to intentionally use famine as another means of achieving ethnic cleansing? In fact, this already may be underway.   Here's one very big challenge: current international efforts to secure urgently needed humanitarian access and provisions may unintentionally enhance the legitimacy of the warring factions. It’s definitely encouraging that the US has a new Special Envoy for Sudan (Tom Perriello). But what really matters, internationally, is what the main backers of the current mayhem (Egypt and the UAE) do. That's where the rubber meets the road. If things keep going as they are, starvation, slaughter, rape and much more may intensify, and ultimately, the RSF may rule (not govern) the entire country. This article provides a useful overview of where we are, 1 short year into this truly awful war. Bruce Jones Cedric de Coning Enrique Roig Frances Z. Brown Tom Perriello Ruth Lawson Alex de Waal Ramtane Lamamra Joseph Sany Mvemba Phezo Dizolele Michael O'Hanlon Judd Devermont Vanda Felbab-Brown Denise Natali Niemat Ahmadi Carolyn Greco Manal T. Samah Salman   https://lnkd.in/evkKbnuv  

Comprehensive and realistic report on Sudan.