₵ryptospace ₮oday’s Post

No crystal ball? No problem. Meet crypto ball! Muyao S. writes for Bloomberg: "Taking a look at the X feed of Shayne Coplan, the founder of the blockchain-based betting platform Polymarket, it’s easy to buy into what he believes: Prediction markets are the future of news, at least stories trying to predict the outcome of big events. Polymarket was the first place to call J.D. Vance as former president Donald Trump’s vice president pick, Coplan said on X. The betting market also “priced” Biden’s chances of dropping out of of the presidential race earlier than the media and with a higher probability, he wrote in another post." The theory underlying Polymarket? "To some degree, it’s true that prediction markets like Polymarket seem to be more accurate than predictive media headlines. After all, when enough money is at stake, people tend to be more truthful and serious. And the real-time element of the predictions market allows for dynamic updates on the possibilities of different outcomes, exactly like what a global news desk strives to do with reporting." Ah, the good old wisdom of the crowd married to some stakes to keep it real. "“Polymarket’s market pricing is interesting insight into the wisdom of the crowds and people’s perception of what is or is not likely to happen, which I think is really where Polymarket competes with the news,” said Tom Schmidt, a general partner at venture capital firm Dragonfly, which is a Polymarket investor. Op-eds, on the other hand, “are one person’s opinion and in many ways it’s better to get an average of the crowd,” he added." 🤔 That's one opinion, and a conflicted one at that. I'm pretty sure even parents are more reliable judges of their children's prospects than VCs who've invested in a company they're shilling. As to the brilliance of Polymarket, two predictions hardly a crystal ball makes. And Coplan fails to mention Polymarket's apparent failure to predict the SEC approval of the ETH ETF (https://lnkd.in/g8ZFr7NF) until news from the SEC broke (https://lnkd.in/gDFhEm43). And as Shen explained: "First, a look back at the history of predictions markets in general and Polymarket specifically shows that they have heavily relied on large news events like the US presidential election to generate volumes and buzz, which means that the betting markets could end up influencing real-life outcomes." Moreover, that "crowd" looks a little Trumpian: "At the same time, even though Polymarket logged record high volume in July at above $271 million, that only involved about 33,540 active traders, based on data created by Dune Analytics user rchen8. That many participants may not be a large enough sample to provide the most accurate information." Let's call a spade a spade. Gamblers gotta gamble: https://lnkd.in/ge3rPkDu. Roll the dice often enough; you're sure to get snake eyes. That's probabilities, not prediction. It's a ball alright, but a bingo ball, not a crystal ball. https://lnkd.in/gcW2_PjD

Predicting the top of a crypto market cycle is as much an art as it is a science. Here are five tools crypto investors turn to when they dust off the crystal ball every four years: Read more from the 0xResearch newsletter: https://lnkd.in/evpxsteQ

The Next Big Coin in Cryptocurrencies: Analyzing Trends and Potential

Crypto VCs, take note 📊 New research on the relationship between TVL and token prices reveals surprising insights: Key findings: 1. Chain maturity impact: Established chains show stronger TVL-price correlation (e.g., Ethereum shows most stable relationship) 2. TVL paradox: - Mainstream L1s: Higher TVL reliably predicts higher token prices - Emerging L1s: TVL-price relationship breaks down, suggesting speculation dominates This challenges conventional wisdom about TVL as a universal valuation metric. Data sources: The Naked Collector, Yahoo Finance Dive deeper here: https://lnkd.in/dy-Cnz-Y h/t: Kyle Samani, Keone Hon, Mason Nystrom, Dan Morehead, Chris Dixon, Saeed H., Danilo S. Carlucci, Borislav Hrinchev

Researchers have different predictions for this year. As noone can foresee the future so you have to manage your risk tolerance before you invest in any asset class. Let’s learn & spread the information via #MoneyInTheRightDirection Movemement. #CorionX https://t.co/5WvAEcJutE

In this week's newsletter, we examine the increasing leverage in DeFi. We assess the effects of advanced strategies on both individual participants and the broader market landscape. https://lnkd.in/dnAxhFPj

Here’s Why This Analyst Is Predicting A Rise To $360

DeFi season is here, bringing unexpected players to the party. Memes are in the spotlight, and airdrops are everywhere. But beyond the hype, innovative projects are paving the way for DeFi’s future. What’s trending in DeFi? Check out our latest blog post: https://lnkd.in/ddtsPQXT

😱🤑#Crypto Fear & Greed Index is incredibly relevant during the rollercoaster we are experiencing. So, you probably saw the numbers. But do you know what they really mean and how to use them? If not, you can find all the answers in the latest article from Yellow Capital⬇️ #FearandGreed https://lnkd.in/dFNkNT5M

Three weeks. Three events. We organized 3 back-to-back-to-back events in partnership with DevCon 2024 on 3 very interesting topics. 1. BLR Restaking: Honestly, I was hella skeptical (and still am) about restaking and its unique use case. But understanding restaking and more importantly, pooled security from the ground up was informative. Takeaway: Bootstrapping security is hard. Restaking makes it easier. But it does set the stage for rehypothecation risk in the long term. Gotta watch out. 2. BLR Modular: Chain building is outta my pay grade. But when Prabhav Gupta broke down modularity from the ground up, and I had a cup of coffee to keep me up, I listened. Quite an interest from a bifurcation of key blockchain layers: • Settlement layer • DA layer • Consensus layer • Execution/App layer Takeaway: Drink coffee before long talks. And think of blockchains as moving parts. 3. BLR DeFi: The most used application in decentralized blockchains is DeFi. We know that. And in the past 10 years of Ethereum, and about 4 years of DeFi a lot has happened – AMMs, lending and liquidity pools, synthetic assets, algo-stablecoins, and more. But there's a whole market of – credit, forex, debt, and commodities that are not on DeFi. Takeaway: Every evolution of DeFi has solved at least 1 real-world use case. Now we need to solve the use case of memecoins. Fun event. Good times.