With Labour Day gone, the GP world is getting back into their offices to do deals while the LP world is wondering whether they actually will. Given the massive inventory of mature deals in PE portfolios the big question on how this will unwind - or indeed if it ever will - will be one of the key talking points at the autumn season AGM dinner conversations (apart from holiday and Netflix tips as usual). Observations over the last 2 weeks provide a very mixed view: There is the GP manager who said that the US market is still at „peak broken auction“ and likened it to online dating as „20% of the deals get 100% of the attention.“ Only the top assets trade at unchanged high multiples. Same old, same old… However, the very same manager also managed to just offload a „B asset“ (his words, not mine) at a nice multiple to another sponsor who took the full 6x leverage offered by credit funds. And the same manager acquired a new platform at a 40% discount to what was offered and declined in 2022 from another PE. We see the cautious return of strategic buyers mimicking PE buy&build strategies buying growth in a low growth environment. We have seen GP teams buying portfolio companies after several failed exit processes. I meet excited investment bankers with massive backlogs and hear about virtual data rooms populated with more data than all audience videos taken during the whole Eras Tour combined. (The last statement is not fact-checked) Valuations on the (too) few exits across the portfolio have been mixed: many bang on last quarter valuations cemented after very long exit processes, some with a bit of a mark-down and - more recently - the return of the classic 20%+ exit booster. Hence, my talking points for the AGM dinner conversations: ↗ exit volume will increase in 2025 at ok valuations but ↗ it will not be a „stampede“ of deals and ↗ holding periods will continue to increase ↗ driving further buy&build in portfolio companies to drive MOIC and „creative“ leverage solutions on fund levels to protect IRRs ↗ any C & D assets in the portfolio? Good luck… (yes, it is always boring to sit next to me at AGM dinners) „Cautiously optimistic“ is the cliché the asset managing industry likes to use in such situations. It is a cliché and yet - I believe - the best state of mind to be investing in this asset class.
Interesting and funny usual, Daniel!!
fair assessment as usual. In my humble view, the industry is still sweating out the excesses of years of zero rates and will need to find some more time get back into equilibrium. Is the asset class much more reliant on cheap capital than we are thinking?
Investor | Board Member | General Manager Private Equity & Venture Capital
4moI'd happily sit next to you at any future AGM dinner ;-) We could chat about the popular solution to shift the problem into the future aka continuation vehicles...