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Top 5% East Bay Realtor - Oakland, Berkeley, El Cerrito, Orinda, Lafayette

The 2023 housing market in one chart: the percentage of all homeowners locked in at each mortgage rate level. Due to mortgage rates averaging in the 7%s most of the year and hitting a high of 8.03% a few weeks ago, not many homeowners want to sell and give up their 2-3% mortgage rates and take on a 7-8% mortgage rate. Inventory is down here in the East Bay around 30-35%. The casual move is dead, unless you have a ton of equity or deep pockets. Most of the sales this year are due to death, aging out of the house, divorce, job relocation or no longer wanting to be a landlord. Supply and demand have driven prices up this year with December 2022 being the bottom of a fast and swift correction that started in July 2022 - up to a 30% price drop on some neighborhoods looking at monthly data from June 2022 to Dec 2022. We are still only about half way back up towards the all time highs of Q2 2022. I expect mortgage rates to stay in this 7-9% range for at least several more months, though I do think they will start to come down sometime late next year as inflation continues to fall, the economy slows, weak job numbers and/or the Fed cuts rates. I expect slightly higher inventory next year, especially if rates fall into the 5-6% range. This all points to the best time to buy is now, while rates are high and demand is just 3 offers per house (with quite a few houses missing offer date and sitting) because once rates come down into the 6%s, then buyer demand (and competition) will pick up even more. Also, know that we had enough buyer demand this year at 7-8% rates to take care of most of the inventory and prices have risen this year. A healthy percentage of buyers were all cash, more than 20% down and/or received gift money from family. There is a lot of money out there and real estate is seen as a better bet than the stock market by many. Designing Dreams, David Hirota 415-577-4714 Top 5% East Bay Realtor #firsttimehomebuyer #homebuyers #homebuying #housingmarket #luxuryrealeate #homebuyingprocess #oakland #berkeley #eastbay #sanfrancisco #eastbayhomes #berkeleyrealestate #berkeleyrealtor #oaklandrealtor #oaklandrealestateagent #oaklandrealestate #eastbayrealtor #eastbayrealestateagent #eastbayrealestate 02140500 #bayarearealestate #bayarearealtor Source/credit: eMBS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

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