Deutsche Bank Private Bank’s Post

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, set the stage for the 2nd-quarter earnings season which is about to begin – and reflected on what that could mean for equities. “Earnings expectations are very high, and that needs confirmation,” Christian said. “But in general, we do expect a very solid earnings season.” He also explained why investors might want to look at small- and mid-cap stocks in the coming quarters. U.S. inflation figures are due in the coming week, and Christian said that it could take some time for prices rises to come down to the Federal Reserve’s target. But he said an interest-rate cut this year remains a possibility. Download and subscribe from Apple Podcasts and Spotify or listen here now: https://lnkd.in/emvemAau (When investing, your capital may be at risk) #privatebanking #wealthmanagement #CIOWeeklyInvestmentOutlook

On today's US Markets Wrap, we had Mark Giambrone Head of US Equities and Portfolio Manager & Analyst at Barrow Hanley Global Investors on our show! He shared his insights on how long he thinks the temporary pullback we're seeing in the markets will last, whether the oil markets have already priced in the conflict between Iran and Israel and what trouble the Fed is dealing with. During the rare periods where inflation has turned negative due to sharp economic downturns, bonds have outperformed stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 Index. But as inflation levels rise, that dynamic shifts. With that in mind, Mark also does a deep dive on whether risks have shifted from recession to inflation? https://lnkd.in/gg9vSa4Y

In this week's Investment Outlook podcast, Global Chief Investment Officer Christian Nolting shares his quick takes on the earnings season, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, and what recent data tell us about the Eurozone economy. The focus on price pressures in the Fed minutes mean that "if inflation would start to pick up, the Fed probably would have to hike rates", he said. But Christian still expects the Fed to begin lowering rates in the second half of the year. Looking at the ECB, he anticipates a rate cut in June, and says "everything else would be a massive surprise". Finally, Christian elaborates on the price jumps of both copper and gold this year. "The current inflationary environment of 2-4% is a nice environment for gold", he says. But even as prices pressures ease, industrial metals like copper could continue to benefit, as "there's more demand for infrastructure, such as data centres". Download and subscribe from Apple Podcasts and Spotify or listen here now: https://lnkd.in/emvemAau (When investing, your capital may be at risk) #privatebanking #wealthmanagement #CIOview #CIOWeeklyInvestmentOutlook

What actions should #investors consider taking in a landscape marked by a blurred #inflation outlook, ambiguity regarding potential #ratecuts and record-breaking #market highs? Tune in to the latest episode of the Investor Download to find out: https://okt.to/Jyxb65

The stock markets performed well in the course of last week, benefiting from the stabilisation of government bond yields and from the quarterly corporate earnings reports. The macro picture confirmed that the US economy, while still solid, is not heading for an overheating phase, whereas in Europe industrial output showed signs of weakness, fuelling investor expectations for the opening of the ECB’s rate cut cycle in June.  Investor focus is now entirely on the US inflation reading, out on Wednesday, called to validate the soft-landing scenario priced in since the beginning of the year. Conti’s analysis is also available in our podcast #EurizonWeekly #MarketWeek #EurizonPodcast #Eurizon

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for Europe, Middle East and Africa, Dr. Dirk Steffen, considers the outlook for the European economy and European stocks after the ECB's decision to get ahead of the Federal Reserve and begin to bring rates down. In the week to come, the Federal Reserve’s policy decision will be on investors' radar, along with a fresh reading of the inflation picture in the U.S. And markets are still digesting critical elections in India and Mexico. Download and subscribe from Apple Podcasts and Spotify or listen here now: https://lnkd.in/emvemAau (When investing, your capital may be at risk) #privatebanking #wealthmanagement #CIOview #CIOWeeklyInvestmentOutlook

There is some great further elaboration on the rolling recession case.

U.S. Economist Matt Bush and Investment Strategist Maria Giraldo discuss the macro and market implications of the Fed's decision to cut interest rates. They also provide commentary on the latest issue of Quarterly Macro Themes, which provides fresh perspectives on important inputs to our economic and market outlook. https://lnkd.in/gX9Gv7me

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook, the Private Bank’s Chief Global Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, says that the European Central Bank’s recent back-to-back interest-rate cuts do not necessarily mean it will ultimately bring down rates massively from their current levels in this cycle. “They need to also watch inflation, which we still think is sticky," Christian says. For now, the main topic in markets is the ongoing U.S. earnings season, Christian says. “Favourite sectors, I think no surprise, are technology and communication services, followed by healthcare. And energy would be expected to be the weakest sector.” Download and subscribe from Apple Podcasts and Spotify or listen here now: https://lnkd.in/emvemAau (When investing, your capital may be at risk) #cioweeklyinvestmentoutlook #privatebanking #wealthmanagement

Happy to be joined by Oren Klachkin in our latest podcast discussing our outlook for Fed policy and the markets’ expectations following yesterday’s FOMC meeting. And special thanks to Brian Kirk for weaving in audio commentary from Chair Powell at his press conference. #fed #federalreserve #markets #rates #economy