Dipti Deshpande’s Post

Retail inflation in April 2024 dipped to an 11-month low of 4.83%, a marginal decrease from the previous month's 4.85%. This aligns closely with expectations and falls within the RBI's tolerance band of 2-6%. Breaking down the data, food inflation rose slightly to 8.7%, with vegetables showing a decrease to 27.80%. Notably, fuel and light inflation contracted by (-)4.24%, indicative of market dynamics. Governor Shaktikanta Das emphasized inflation as a key challenge in the recent RBI meeting. While there's optimism about inflation nearing the desired threshold of 4%, uncertainties persist due to erratic food prices and global factors like rising crude oil prices. With the MPC maintaining its inflation forecast for the fiscal year at 4.5%, investors are navigating potential impacts from events like the Red Sea crisis and anticipating normal monsoon conditions. --- #RetailInflation #EconomicInsights #IndiaEconomy #CurrentAffairs

𝐑𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐥 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐟𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐭𝐨 5.6% 𝐢𝐧 𝐍𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 #Retailinflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (#CPI), likely fell to 5.6% in November from a 14-month high of 6.21% in October, according to the median of 17 estimates. The sharp decline in the headline print was mainly due to cooling food prices, specifically of vegetables. In November 2023, CPI inflation stood at 5.55%. The National Statistical Office - PNG (NSO) will release the #retail inflation data for the month, on Thursday. #Inflation #ConsumePriceIndex #Economy #Policy

𝐔𝐊 𝐑𝐏𝐈 𝐚𝐭 2.7%    There was a slight decrease in the rate of inflation in the 12 months to August 2024 – Retail Prices Index = 2.7% in September, 3.5% in August. The index itself has moved from to 389.9 to 388.6, a decrease of 0.34% for the month. The inflation-linked deposit products we offer at IDAD are linked to RPI, which continues at a higher level than the ‘headline’ inflation rate CPI, which was down by 0.5% month on month at 1.7%. Air fares, up in the previous month, fell back again in September, partly due to lower fuel costs overall (which made a significant contribution to the overall fall) and also because of a drop off in demand after the Summer season. Food and non-alcoholic beverages saw a significant increase month on month, but the biggest year on year contributors to inflation remain squarely on the Services side – up 5.6% vs Goods down 1.4%. We didn’t see an interest rate cut in September, but I think another 0.25% is likely in November. Longer term interest rates have been trending higher recently on the expectation rate cuts may not come as fast as previously hoped and there seems little to change this view for now. 

Retail Inflation Drops to 5.48% in November : Food Prices Show Notable Decline 🍏📉 Retail inflation has eased to 5.48% in November, down by 0.73% from October's 6.21%. This drop is mainly attributed to a reduction in food prices, which significantly impact the inflation basket (about 50%). Key Highlights: Urban inflation : Decreased from 5.62% to 4.83% Rural inflation : Decreased from 6.68% to 5.95% Food inflation : Dropped from 10.87% to 9.04% Why Does Inflation Matter? Inflation affects our purchasing power. For instance, with a 6% inflation rate, Rs 100 today would only have the value of Rs 94 tomorrow. To protect your wealth, it's important to invest while considering inflation. 💰 What Drives Inflation? Inflation fluctuates based on supply and demand. If demand outpaces supply, prices rise. More money in circulation often leads to higher demand and thus higher prices. Inflation & CPI : The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks price changes of around 300 goods and services. It helps determine the cost of living and guides inflation trends, alongside other factors like oil prices and production costs. #RetailInflation #CPI #FoodPrices #InflationImpact #InvestSmart #EconomyUpdate #FinancialPlanning #IndiaEconomy #PriceTrends 📊

📉 Retail inflation at 1-year low of 4.75% in May on cheaper staples 📉 🔹 Retail inflation has dropped to a one-year low of 4.75% in May, driven by a decline in prices of essential kitchen staples. 🔹 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for retail inflation was 4.83% in April and 4.31% in May 2023. 🔹 Industrial growth, however, saw a slip, with the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) falling to a three-month low of 5% in April from 5.4% in April 2023. 🌾 Veggie prices down, pulses up 🌾 🔸 Vegetable inflation dropped due to higher cereal and pulse prices. 🔸 Food inflation eased to 3.4 percentage points, and core inflation (excluding food and fuel) eased to 3% in May from 3.2% in April. 🔍 Key insights: Food Inflation: Significant contributors include vegetables and pulses, with the government's measures expected to keep prices in check. Core Inflation: Expected to rise from Q2 FY25, driven by higher core CPI. Future Projections: Inflation expected to average 4.8%, with the RBI likely to cut policy interest rates in H2 FY25 if food inflation moderates. 🔹 Industrial Sector: The manufacturing sector remains subdued, while mining and power segments perform well. The broader industrial performance saw a decline, reflecting challenges in the manufacturing sector. Stay informed on economic trends to make better business decisions! 📊 #Economy #Inflation #IndustrialGrowth #CPI #EconomicTrends #BusinessUpdate

Comment on CPI Inflation May 2024 The retail inflation edged down marginally to 4.75% in May 2024 from 4.83%, a month ago. The moderation in the core inflation and a sustained deflation in fuel & light pushed the retail inflation down to a 12-month low in May 2024. The food inflation remained flat at 8.7% in May 2024. Despite elevated vegetables inflation, the food inflation stayed flat due to low inflation in spices and milk. The inflation of these items slipped to a 29-month low of 4.3% and 35-month low of 2.6% respectively. Nevertheless, the worrisome fact is that food inflation has now stayed above 8% for seven months. This is not a good news for the households belonging to the lower income bracket whose consumption basket mainly consists of food items. The impact of high food inflation is finding a reflection in some other indicators such as consumer non-durables whose output declined 2.4% yoy in April 2024. Unfortunately, the adverse weather conditions especially in the north due to the heat waves are likely to keep fruits & vegetables and in turn food inflation firm even in June 2024. Moreover, the price hike announced by the some of dairy cooperatives will also add to the already elevated food inflation. The core inflation edged down further to 3.1% in May 2024. This is the lowest print in the 2011-12 series and is reflective of three things a) impact of tight monetary policy, b) the weak consumer demand and c) relatively stable inputs costs. The services inflation dipped further to 2.7% in May 2024, lowest since the data is available. Despite some moderation in headline inflation, the fight on inflation front is far from over as food inflation continues to high and if not checked it can give rise to a wage-price spiral. Furthermor, still 42.9% of the total commodities in the CPI basket have an inflation above 4%. Ind-Ra expects the retail inflation to remain at 4.8% in June 2024. It would be heading down to below 4% due to a favourable base effect in 2QFY25, but would pick up again thereafter to above 4.5% in 2HFY25. The climate related events have made the trajectory of food inflation trajectory uncertain and therefore inflation moving closer to the 4% target on a durable basis also looks uncertain. Factoring in all of the above, India Ratings and Research believe that the central bank would continue to maintain a status quo on policy rates and stance till 2HFY25. #indianeconomy #fy25 #May2024 #cpi #inflation

#inflation #retailinflation #macroeconomy #indianeconomy Retail inflation has risen to 5.49 per cent in September from 3.65 per cent in August, PTI quoted government data on Monday. The retail inflation rose mainly due to higher food prices, said government data. The consumer price index-based inflation was 5.02 per cent in September 2023. Read on

The economic question I am most often asked by my friends and family is whether a lowering of inflation means a lowering of prices where it matters most to everyday people - in the grocery store, at the gas pump, in rent prices, and in doing things we love with the people we love. Yesterday, the inflation milestone CPI Index came in under 3% for the first time since 2021. The CPI index measures inflation of consumer goods and services (core inflation excludes gas and groceries). The index is important because it measures the average change in price over a certain period of time. In this case - the CPI showed a 2.9% increase in prices from July 2023, which is a slightly smaller increase in price than expected and forecasted. The lowering of the rate of inflation (disinflation) means that prices are still increasing, just not at the same rate of speed as they were previously. In other words: my grocery bill looks closer to the same each week. What does influence prices? YOU (and supply chain, global conflicts, market competition etc…). Being savvy in your purchasing decisions and making informed decisions is more powerful than you think in helping to drive better consumer prices. Here is a great article that discusses the relationship between inflation and prices:

Inflation Update: The rate cut anticipated this year has been delayed until February as India’s retail inflation climbed to 5.95% in October. Rising food prices have been a major driver, especially for essentials like potatoes, onions, and tomatoes, which saw year-over-year increases of 50%, 44%, and 115%, respectively. In September, inflation was largely fueled by vegetables and edible oils, with October seeing further price pressures across additional food items. Historically, food prices tend to ease during the winter months when fresh harvests arrive, leading to price dips from October to December. However, this year’s cooling may come later, likely around late November. A good kharif season, though, offers hope for price stability by December. The RBI remains cautiously optimistic, projecting CPI to stabilize at 4.5% for FY25. Rishabh Kale

🚨🚨 *RBI raises FY25 Consumer Price inflation forecast to 4.8% from 4.5%* as October retail inflation hits a *14-month high of 6.21%* https://lnkd.in/gAd_4YHC