Dominique Pierre Locher 🥦🥕🍓🥬🚜 🐶’s Post

#Citigroup has updated its European food delivery forecasts to reflect recent app and web data from its innovation lab, which suggest Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (LSE:JET, NASDAQ:GRUB) could have the edge over rivals this results season.    #JustEat is expected to unveil its results for the fourth quarter on 17 January, and #Deliveroo is due to publish its results two days later on 19 January. Citi analysts said their estimates of Just Eat's gross merchandise value (GMV) are 'in-line' with general forecasts for the quarter, suggesting “more constructive” optimism for the delivery company's UK and Ireland business, but caution around activities in North America, Europe and Australasia.   Just Eat is expected to deliver more gross transaction value (GTV), quarter over quarter, than food delivery rival Deliveroo, according to #Citi analysts.  More at #Proactive #ProactiveInvestors #ETR #OTCQX #DHER #DLVHF http://ow.ly/jzjT1058B3O

Thanks for sharing Dominique Pierre Locher 🥦🥕🍓🥬🚜 🐶 Very interesting. The combination of a supercompelling proposition for consumers with, now, a sustainable business model, suggests that food delivery and quick commerce platforms will keep gaining share in the future

Deliveroo PLC (LSE:ROO) has broadened its market proposition by expanding into retail and grocery deliveries, but in doing so could ‘dilute’ its profits, according to some analysts.   Deliveroo’s focus on adding new verticals grocery and retail to its platform, following its recent investor day, could dilute its gross margin, according to analysts at #ShoreCapital.   They said in a research note that customer fees and price integrity are top-of-mind for customers ordering through Deliveroo’s traditional restaurant stream, which represents approximately 80% of total order volume.  Analysts suggest that retail and grocery will act as a ‘further pull’ on investment at #Deliveroo, prolonging the runway for the group to improve its position on fees in the traditional food and drink vertical.  More at #Proactive #ProactiveInvestors http://ow.ly/1Law10552ka

An interesting article. The next few years will see a lot of sensitivity around costs and no doubt consolidation in a number of industries via M&A or companies being picked off by opportunity funds. Companies with poor business models which survived during low interest rate environments will find it hard to stay alive when their debt interest rate doubles. I wonder who will ultimately end up winning the food delivery market share war…

Leading online food delivery groups in Europe and the US have racked up more than $20bn in combined operating losses since they went public, after a fierce battle for market share. Shares in Deliveroo, Just Eat Takeaway.com , Delivery Hero and DoorDash — the four largest standalone, publicly listed food-delivery businesses in the US and Europe — are all trading well below their pandemic-era peaks, as investors scrutinise their business models. Following a period of pandemic lockdown-fuelled growth, the four companies are now contending with a tougher macroeconomic environment that has hit consumers.

🗣 Just Eat Takeaway.com 𝙧𝙚𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙨 11% 𝙜𝙧𝙤𝙬𝙩𝙝 𝙞𝙣 𝙐𝙆 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙄𝙧𝙚𝙡𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙞𝙣 𝙛𝙞𝙧𝙨𝙩 𝙦𝙪𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙤𝙛 2024: Just Eat Takeaway has reported 11% #growth in its #UK and #Ireland operations in the first quarter of 2024. In a trading update, the company said its UK and Ireland business accelerated gross transaction value (GTV) growth to 11% (7% constant currency) in the first three months of the year. It also reported continued momentum in GTV growth in Northern Europe and constant currency GTV growth, excluding North America, of 3% in the first quarter, within the 2024 guidance range of 2% to 6% year-on-year. The business reiterated its guidance, including adjusted Ebitda of approximately €450m and positive free cash flow before changes in working capital in 2024 and thereafter. It has a long-term target of group adjusted Ebitda margin in excess of 5% of GTV. Jitse Groen, chief executive of Just Eat Takeaway, said: “Just Eat Takeaway started the year well, with the acceleration of GTV growth in UK and Ireland, and our continued momentum in Northern Europe in Q1 2024. We are excited that the investments in our business are paying off, and we are looking forward to the rest of the year.” The company said under the share buyback programmes announced in April and October 2023, 8.9% of the issued shares were repurchased as of 12 April 2024. It has also decided to discontinue all operations in New Zealand in the coming weeks, with the financial impact “immaterial”. The company also continues to actively explore the partial or full sale of its Grubhub business. It added: “There can be no certainty that any such strategic actions will be agreed or what the timing of such agreements will be. Further announcements will be made as and when appropriate.” PROPEL HOSPITALITY LIMITED #hospitality #food #takeaway #ebitda #LFL #trading

Deliveroo PLC (LSE:ROO) (Deliveroo PLC (LSE:ROO)) said it expects adjusted earnings to be slightly ahead of guidance after a return to growth in its international arm. The food delivery outfit said gross transaction value (GTV) growth of 3% was in line with guidance of lower single-digit percentage growth in constant currency. Adjusted Ebitda is expected to be slightly above the £60-80 million guidance range. In the fourth quarter, Deliveroo said GTV growth remained resilient, with an improving trend in orders with GTV up 4% year-on-year (YoY) constant currency. Order growth improved slightly to flat YoY, while food price inflation moderated, but with GTV per order still up 4% YoY in constant currency. UK and Ireland GTV growth was 7% YoY, with underlying GTV trends remaining steady. More at #Proactive #ProactiveInvestors #LSE #ROO #deliveroo #food #takeaway http://ow.ly/Janx1059Hfy

FOOD 🥘 🍱 DELIVERY 🚴 APP COMPANIES FINALLY DELIVERING A PROFIT: IS THERE LIGHT 💡 AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL ? Financial Time reports that all the 3, Deliveroo, Just Eat, and Delivery Hero are expected to report positive adjusted EBITDA, (excluding share based compensation) in 2023. Despite years of languishing ↘️stock prices, this seems finally a proof of concept that their business model works. And of course the opportunities for these companies to increase ⬆️ sales and market penetration by: -entering new developing markets and - further adoption of food delivery by the younger generations will allow to significantly increase margins, thanks to - economies of scale and of delivery 🚚 logistics. One estimate is that operating margins, after depreciation and amortization, can reach 6% of sales, hence, say, a EBITDA margins of 7% 💵 Sector trades 6.8x EBITDA, with large food retailers at about 6x. So, my calculations indicate that in 5 years' considering: - their market cap today 💰 - a 4x 🆙 increase of turnover - a 2x increase of debt - a 7% ebitda margin Their market cap in 5 years' would move as follows: Markt Cap increase vs today DELIVEROO +41% JUST EAT +46% DELIVERY HERO -17% AVERAGE INCREASE +24% Could they represent an interesting investment proposition ? Deliveroo Just Eat Delivery Hero Cropfield Consulting SAS #agriculture #food #foodtech #agribusiness #ned #fractionalcfo https://lnkd.in/d56nP8YF

Deliveroo and Just Eat Takeaway.com face deadlines to deliver profits The once-soaring European food delivery sector, represented by industry leaders Delivery Hero, Just Eat Takeaway.com, and Deliveroo, is facing a challenging period that has triggered a significant erosion of investor confidence. Since their peak in September 2021, the combined market value of these platforms has plummeted by over €45 billion, raising concerns about their ability to achieve sustainable profitability in the wake of fading pandemic-era demand. Elias Halbig, a portfolio manager at Union Investment in Frankfurt, acknowledges the sector's need to rebuild trust with shareholders, emphasizing, "There is still much to do in order to achieve profitability on a sustainable basis." Unlike their US counterpart DoorDash, which has witnessed substantial share price gains, European players like Delivery Hero and Just Eat Takeaway.com have experienced a decline of over 25% in share performance this year. Concerns about achieving profitability and free cash flow targets, especially given the adjusted measures employed, have left investors questioning the industry's long-term potential. While recent adjusted earnings suggest some improvement, the sector's actual losses remain high. Operational changes, including reduced marketing spending and increased service charges, have been implemented, but analysts point to the need for further efficiency improvements, such as optimizing delivery routes. As these companies aim to shore up profits, sales growth is under pressure, with inflation impacting customer spending on restaurant takeaways. The challenges of maintaining growth are compounded by market saturation, prompting analysts to forecast modest annual gross merchandise value (GMV) increases for the next five years. Despite the hurdles, valuations of these firms may already account for many of the challenges they face. Forward price-to-sales ratios for Delivery Hero and Just Eat are significantly below their three-year averages, indicating potential undervaluation. To navigate the evolving landscape, the companies are actively working to narrow losses and generate positive free cash flow in the coming year. Additionally, consolidation through potential deals, such as Delivery Hero's talks to sell part of its Southeast Asia operations, may reignite investor interest. However, regulatory challenges persist, with EU competition raids targeting Delivery Hero sites in Berlin and Barcelona. As Europe's food delivery giants navigate these multifaceted challenges, the industry's future will likely hinge on their ability to strike a delicate balance between profitability, operational efficiency, and regulatory compliance.

Profitability and sustainability as an afterthought are very hard to achieve.