Dr. Al-Jufairi, K.’s Post

The latest from the Globe and Mail's business commentary, by Eric Reguly: French politics just got messier, and may stay messy for a long time as political paralysis sets in. A round of jostling and squabbling among the party bosses is certain, with an uncertain outcome, and a stalemate possible, while the economy and markets will stay jittery.

With just days to go until France’s snap parliamentary election kicks off, victory for the far right looks increasingly likely in the first phase of the two-stage runoff. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and its allies are seen winning 36% of votes, signalling growing support for the party’s euroskeptic, anti-immigration agenda, according to the latest opinion polls from Elabe released ahead of the first vote on June 30. The shift away from centrist politics has spooked investors and analysts, who warn of implications ranging from “political paralysis” to “immediate financial crisis.” But predicting the outcome of France’s final vote on July 7 is less clear-cut, given the complexity of France’s voting system. I took a look at the likelihood of a far-right French victory and the impact for markets in my latest for CNBC International: #Frenchelections #politics #farright #LePen #Bardella #Macron

🇫🇷 The Far-Right won’t govern France: Le Pen/Bardella only 3rd after the Left (big win) and the Macronists (who hold) What if Macron’s strategy wasn’t a gamble? As his minority government was set to lose political support while facing a rising far right, he counterintuitively decided to accelerate that process as the best antidote against its full realization. Today’s electoral results proved him right, and despite the uncertainties linked to the formation of the next government, Macron remains in the picture as does his party. Isn't that what he sought for? Yet months of political gridlock could lie ahead. The most likely scenario is the left coalition to split and the moderate sides of the Socialists and the Greens forming a government with Macron’s Ensemble. The ongoing French electoral reshuffle coincides with major reconfiguration of EU political landscape. A result of this unexpected electoral result, Macron will continue to have a chance to shape not only France - albeit downsized in political influence - but also the EU, and to do that on the eve of the vote on VdL and the next College of Commissioners and new EU political agenda. #legislatives2024

https://lnkd.in/dZFUtgpy "The more likely scenario, however, is that National Rally falls short of a majority, leaving France with a hung Parliament. Things would quickly become messy. As the biggest party, National Rally would still try to gather the support of other parties to pass legislation — but no one, perhaps besides a few defecting deputies from the right-wing Republicans, will want to enable the far right to govern. With a weakened Mr. Macron atop a fractious and uncooperative assembly, France would enter a profound political crisis with no remedy in sight. In the event of a hung Parliament, Mr. Macron would have very few options. No modern French president has faced a situation of such political and institutional blockage. His only option would be to attempt to bring about a so-called national unity government, comprising deputies from Renaissance, the Republicans and possibly some moderate deputies from the New Popular Front. But it’s doubtful that such an opportunistic gathering would reach a majority..."

This Thursday we turn our attention once again to France. Many people in Brussels are watching this election closely following the French results in the EU Parliamentary polls. Now the Council is the legislator in focus for those in EU affairs as France decides how their own government will be composed. Our analysts will discuss the key pointers to watch: • What do the latest polls tell us about second round races? • Will France be put into Excessive Deficit Procedure during the campaign? • Will Le Pen continue to play by the Meloni playbook? • What are the chances of a right-wing coalition? • How likely can the left implement its disruptive fiscal programme? • What would happen in a hung parliament? 🗓 Thursday 20 June 🕒 15.00-15.30 🔗 https://lnkd.in/ewY6xgUH

France's coalition aversion jeopardizes stability of any new government. France’s Aversion to Coalitions Risks Early Collapse of New Government In a recent development that has captured global attention and topped Google search trends today, France faces significant political instability as the country’s leaders continue to resist forming coalitions. This aversion to alliances could lead to the premature collapse of any new government. For more detailed information, refer to this news article. Snap Election and Political Stalemate On July 9, 2024, France held a snap election that resulted in a deeply fragmented National Assembly. The election brought forth three roughly equal political blocs, each unwilling to compromise or form what […] https://lnkd.in/dDK9QVcv https://lnkd.in/dJWQ6rRi

France is at a turning point of its history. Except huge surprise, on Sunday July 7th evening, the country will start to be governed by an extreme-right political party, the "Rassemblement National" (RN). It will be the 1st time that France will be governed in such conditions since 1940. The problem now is to know if the RN will have an absolute or relative majority at the national assembly : number of seats : 577, absolute majority : 289. According to the 1st round of the election, an absolute majority for RN seems unlikely, which means that RN will seek for alliances with other right-wing parties ("Renaissance, President Macron's party and "Les Républicains" classical right party). The other problem will be the weight of the left-wing party "Front Populaire" (socialists, extreme-left, communists and ecologists), which, in any cases, will be inferior to the RN. This is also very important for Europe where yoy have today 2 countries, Hungary and Slovakia, which are leaded by extreme-right governments and whare we see a growth of extremists parties according to the last european elections. In fact, France is today a living political laboratory to study how an extreme-right party will run one of the most important european countries. There are, of course, a lot of withdrawal strategies working today, but, "at the end of the day", the people will decide themselves. This is democracy !! Next round : Sunday July 7th.

During the years 2019-2024, the European Parliament was the protagonist of the second attempt in its history to initiate a reform process of the European institutions, which led to the approval of the text for the reform of the Treaties with the vote on 22 November 2023. At this historic moment, in 2024, after the #Covid pandemic, #Russia's aggression against #Ukraine and the rekindling of the long #conflict in the #MiddleEast, European citizens are going to vote again and will have to decide whether or not to renew their trust in political parties that want to empower Europe as federal, sovreign and democratic or against those who campaign for less Europe. This is the reason why we are so committed as European Federalists with our political campaign for the incomping European election: 1) with our political manifesto calling all political families to commit themselves to reform the Treaties through the opening of a Convention; https://lnkd.in/ez8QE2hs 2) with an analysis of the political manifestos of the various European political parties to show who is significantly committed to the reform of the Treaties and on which issues they are in favour or against; https://lnkd.in/eWXuVAUU 3) with a pledge that will be presented to as many candidates as possible asking for a direct commitment on the reform of the Treaties and to become a member of the next Spinelli Group; https://lnkd.in/enXeFYCy Follow our campaign here: https://lnkd.in/eSnTS4B8

As speculation abounds, let me get this straight: the next EU Commission President won’t have a PERMANENT parliamentary majority. That's not how the EU works. Instead, the next Commission President will have variable support depending on the policy file. This means that we may have an EPP-S&D-Renew majority for electing the commission president (with some ECR & co votes), but then an EPP-Renew-ECR on some policy files... https://lnkd.in/d_5QaENB

Three thoughts on right-wing and populist politics and the European Parliament: 1.        Their influence goes beyond the number of seats won and how they will use them future. The right has already succeeded in dragging the policies and positions of the centre-right and centre closer to it in terms of policies they put forward in the campaigns.  2.        The right wing’s most influential delegations are split between different political groups. Some have a ‘detoxification’ agenda for national politics that doesn’t support enhanced right-wing collaboration in Brussels. This leads to a complex picture. The AfD appears ready to try and rejoin the ID group minus Maximilian Krah which would have important funding benefits for the German party. It is questionable whether Marine Le Pen would accept this considering she now has eyes on the Parliamentary elections in France. Giorgia Meloni is probably best placed to maximise influence where her party is now; in the ECR group.  3.        Two of the top three largest national delegations in the European Parliament are now from the right: France’s Rassemblement National (No. 1 with 30 seats) and Fratelli d'Italia (No. 3 with 24 seats) who sandwich the CDU/CSU (29 seats). These delegations are a useful platform in daily parliamentary business for disruption, or the extraction of concessions from the mainstream, depending on the situation or day of the week.