Dr. Rabia Akhtar’s Post

I'm pleased to share a new article just published in International Affairs, coauthored with Isak Kulalic and John Mayle. In it, we propose a new framework for studying the "hybridity" of conflicts based on their scope, centralization, and militarization. By recognizing that *all* conflicts feature a mix of hybrid elements, scholars and policy makers can move beyond endless definitional debates of what is (and is not) hybrid war. This provides a more dynamic way to study how and why states incorporate hybrid elements into multi-domain conflict strategies.

RUSSIA'S COVERT INFO WAR | THE WORLD DECIPHERED EP. 5 There is concern this week about Russian Active Measures and Information Operations as officials at the U.S. Department of Justice shared details from a 32-page indictment accusing the Kremlin of pouring millions of dollars into a media company in an effort to influence U.S. opinion. Today, we’re talking with someone who knows a lot about Russian covert and information operations - Cipher Brief Expert and former senior member of the British Foreign Office Nick Fishwick, about Russia’s success in running operations abroad. Also in the show, Cipher Brief Chief International Correspondent Ia Muermishvili from Tblisi, where she sat down with two Eastern European leaders who are calling on western countries that are supporting Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself from Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine - to lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range weapons to target Russian airfields deep inside Russian territory. Chairman of Estonian Parliament's foreign relation committee tells us that Russia, under President Putin's leadership, aims to reshape the geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe and alter the global order. Marko Mihkelson highlights Russia's efforts to form alliances with China, Iran, and North Korea, which on a global level aligns with China's broader strategic interests. Speaking about his perception of the post-election U.S. policy towards Russia, Rihards Kols argues that showing fear towards Russia and accommodating its demands could signal weakness. He emphasizes that the outcome of the war in Ukraine will directly impact the future national security of the United States, urging U.S. leaders to understand the importance of a decisive response to Russia's actions. #TheCipherBrief

📘 As Stockholm-based SCEEUS publishes a report on Russia`s influence in South Caucasus, Mahammad Mammadov & Murad Muradov from Topchubashov Center team up to analyze the Kremlin`s overrated regional influence, misunderstood tools, & underestimated staying power. As a weakened Moscow adapts, regional actors rise, fueling geopolitical uncertainty. https://lnkd.in/e7ArwiKF

IR Book of the Week! "Russia and Ukraine: Entangled Histories, Diverging States" by Maria Popova & Oxana Shevel. Russia and Ukraine were on a collision course the moment Ukraine gained independence in 1991. This book is essential for understanding why.

I did not think it possible, but an academic I respect, Niall Ferguson, actually defends Donald Trump's foreign policy ideas throughout this video. As someone interested in understanding someone whose opinions I disagree with, I think it important to understand their thoughts as completely as I can. Ferguson points out that the USA is paying 69% of the cost for NATO, and it was during Trump's presidency that European partners increased their share of contributions. He said that Biden made a mistake by trying to resuscitate the Iran nuclear deal and try to work with them by letting them sell more oil. This money is now being used to fund the Axis of Resistance. He says that what is going on right now between China and the USA is detente as happened between the USSR and the USA. As was the case with the USSR, Western countries can beat China by just waiting for one-party command economy systems pathologies to take hold. This is happening now with the economic problems in China due to its overbuilt housing stock. His one caveat is that Western countries must remain united. Well, I would never vote for Trump even if I was American. But, this just goes to show that even he has part of the truth about what is happening in the world. Always love to get surprised like this. https://lnkd.in/g8Vu28Sf

Central Europeans towards the New Cold War I am delighted that the Polish academic journal Stosunki Międzynarodowe-International Affairs, partnered with Taylor&Francis, published an initial version of my article, which is publicly available via the enclosed link. The articles are published before the peer-review process hence the final version will probably differ but all comments are welcome. In any case here is my argument in a nutshell: Central European states #security is based on #alliances. In the past (during the interwar period) Central Europeans responded to their threat by either joining an alliance to #balance against their source of threat (Poland, Czechoslovakia) or join in with the predator (Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria). How are the Central Europeans likely to behave now when confronted with the #Russian threat? I argue that this choice depends on the following factors: geographical proximity to the source of threat, historical legacy and the assessment of reliability of existing alliances (NATO and the US in this case).

Out today for EPC Observatory - "European Security: The Backbone of the EPC". You can read it at the link below.

💡 "There is significant consensus that the highest value of the European Political Community (EPC) may be represented by its nonnormative framework, under which difficult conversations can be had among top-level leaders. [...] Despite the obvious benefits of flexibility, avoiding the traps is daunting. Being well positioned to serve as a venue for pan-European consultation on dealing with Russian aggression and for the eventual aftermath of the war in #Ukraine beyond the short term, the EPC can only preserve a common front, address and mitigate differences and eventually perhaps start a process of designing relations with post-war, post-imperialist #Russia if it avoids the risk of sacrificing the values-based cohesion at the core of the EU and NATO in favour of outright transactionalism", ✒ write Global Focus Center Director Oana Popescu-Zamfir and Global Focus Center Expert Daniela Burciu, for the EPC Observatory. Read about the 'polycrisis' Europe is facing & how the EPC can step up to the challenge, in the new article "European Security: The Backbone of the EPC", now available on the EPC Observatory website (link below 👇 ) #GlobalFocusCenter #EuropeanPoliticalCommunity #EPC #EPCObservatory #EPCSummit #EU #Security #Cooperation

Shifting Sands: Gulf Countries, BRICS, and the New World Order (The Gulf) Paperback – January 13, 2024 by GEW Intelligence Unit (Author), Hichem Karoui (Editor) =============================================== In contrast to the West, the BRICS+ consortium (Argentina, Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates) is widely acknowledged as an embodiment of the broader phenomenon known as the "Rise of the Rest." This occurrence, which is representative of modern-day global affairs, signifies the progressive development of the economic, political, and military capabilities of specific nations and their coalitions. As a result, the Western powers' formerly hegemonic dominance has notably diminished. Simultaneously, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has conventionally been regarded as an alliance that emerged during a period when cooperation between the West and countries that produced energy was crucial. However, improved connectivity between the BRICS+ and the GCC (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman) is possible, especially with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as members, due to their complementary natures and ability to reconcile divergences. The aforementioned potential is founded upon the BRICS nations' ascent to a crucial position in global cooperation and development, in contrast to the GCC countries' ongoing dominance as primary providers of energy on an international scale. The potential exists for these blocs to strengthen their individual positions on the international stage through the amalgamation. This dynamic environment presents a thought-provoking subject for analysis, in which the interplay between GCC and BRICS dynamics takes place while the United States maintains its prominent position as a global actor. Amid the persistent power struggles and significant geopolitical realignments, there is a possibility that strategic and economic convergences will arise between the GCC and BRICS, thereby exerting additional influence on the global geopolitical arena. The objective of this book is to comprehensively examine the evolving dynamics between the GCC and the BRICS consortium from a variety of vantage points. Enriching and contributing to a nuanced and well-informed discourse on the evolving relationship between the GCC and the BRICS+ should be contingent on the outcome that ensues. Practical insights and actionable recommendations are prioritised in order to provide stakeholders with the necessary tools to navigate the intricate geopolitical landscape undergoing a significant transformation.

Our recent AWC publication is now available on Project MUSE: "War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World," edited by Hal Brands - featuring chapters from Will Inboden & Peter Feaver. Read it today at https://lnkd.in/gVPrSiNZ "The war in Ukraine has altered the course of global history. These authors explore how." "Essays cover topics including the twists and turns of the war itself, the successes and failures of US strategy, the impact of sanctions, the future of Russia and its partnership with China, and more."