Emily Roland’s Post

If the U.S. #economy had a relationship status, it would be it's complicated. We had two different U.S. business surveys showing vastly different trends in June from the #ISM reflecting a deterioration to the S&P (previously Markit) with an improvement to 2-year highs. The June #jobs report had a similar story with the headline job gains beating expectations at +206k, but prior two month revisions were -111k. The biggest sectors for job gains government +70k and health care +49k. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%. This week we have another key #CPI (inflation) report on tap. John Hancock Investment Management

☀️ Good morning! This week’s #marketintelligence weekly is up! Tune in below for 5 minute highlights with Matthew Miskin CFA 💡 comment or DM with any questions 🗓️ message me to schedule a 20min 1:1 zoom review with Matthew Miskin CFA or Emily Roland #teamJH #marketcommentary #marketoutlook John Hancock Investment Management

The Economy Begins To Show Signs of Exhaustion. 💰📊🤑 Financial markets began tumbling last week and continued their fall early this week after the release of the July jobs report. The report showed job gains slowing to 114,000, well below expectations of 175,000 and the weakest number gained since October 2019 (excluding the three pandemic months of job losses). The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest rate since October 2021. Excluding the pandemic era, unemployment has not been this high since September 2017, when it was still on its long, slow retreat from the Great Recession. This followed a report from the Institute for Supply Management, which showed manufacturing employment moving sharply lower in July. https://lnkd.in/e2r2_2GH #costarnews #unitedstateseconomy #economicexhaustion #economicupdates #financialmarkets #unemplymentrates #economicchanges #realestate

The U.S. economy showed steady growth in 2023. The job growth rate in the United States exceeded expectations, while unemployment dropped lower than anticipated. We recap some key takeaways from Q4 2023 so you can plan for the future. https://bit.ly/3T4iIqN #EBWealth #MarketUpdate #MarketOutlook

The recent releases from the BLS paint a picture of an economy approaching a sort of crossroads. As the minor panic that followed the July jobs data release has subsided many wonder if we are headed toward a recession. Others believe the economy remains robust with the recent slowdown being a return to its long-term normal functioning. #JustEconomy #JobsReport https://hubs.ly/Q02Lvpyn0

Earlier today, the much anticipated U.S Jobs report was released. When Economists “miss” by a large margin, it is usually a sign that the economy’s momentum has accelerated faster in the “other” direction. My model is showing the following: 1) Equity market correction by first week April. 2) Wave growth will flatten, then decline. 3) So called Inflation will continue to decline to 1.5% by the end of Q3. 4) EPS will slow throughout the rest of the year. 5) unemployment will continue to rise.

The latest jobs report for June 2024 exceeded analysts' predictions with an addition of 206,000 jobs, but the rise in unemployment to 4.1% raises concerns. Job growth was seen in various sectors, showcasing a broader-based recovery, while steady wage growth outpacing inflation poses challenges for policymakers. The U.S. economy is on a recovery path with resilience shown in job creation, but monitoring indicators like unemployment and inflation will be crucial for future policy decisions. https://lnkd.in/ePWY-bPn

ECONOMY WATCH: STAFFING Consumer Confidence Index Little Changed in March Conference Board News Release (03/26/24) The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was 104.7 in March, essentially unchanged from a downwardly revised 104.8 in February. The Present Situation Index increased to 151.0 in March from 147.6 in February. The Expectations Index dropped to 73.8, down from 76.3 last month. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals a forthcoming recession. Assessments of the present situation were primarily driven by more positive views of the current employment situation. Notably, the employment differential—those saying jobs are plentiful minus those saying jobs are hard to get—rose in March and has been trending higher this year. However, expectations for the next six months slipped to the lowest level since October 2023. Consumers’ outlook for future business conditions, labor market conditions, and income expectations all deteriorated in March.

A lot of people's rather pessimistic sentiment about the U.S. economy is still disconnected from the reality of our strong economy across most indicators. Yesterday's new economic data proofs that the U.S. economy continues to be the best performing large economy globally. Here is some of the newest economic data: - U.S. employers added a seasonally adjusted 300,000+ jobs in March, significantly more than economists expected and making it thereby the 39th straight month of job growth. - Our unemployment decreased to 3.8% in March vs 3.9% the month prior. The labor participation rate climbed and is currently at 62.7%, higher than a year ago. - There are nationwide 8.8 million job openings as of the end of February, indicating we still have a lot of job growth ahead of us as long as we have the educated workforce available and continued strong immigration. - Average hourly earnings rose 4.1% from a year ago while inflation has fallen drastically from its peak of 7.1% to 2.5% in February, a tremendous sign of progress. I do understand people's frustration with higher prices for most goods and services than a few years back but the economic reality of the U.S. is very positive. Hopefully sooner than later, people's sentiment in the U.S. matches stronger the objective economic reality in our country than currently it does.

The July jobs report has been dominating headlines as data came in weaker than expectations, with 114,000 jobs added to the US economy and unemployment rising to 4.3%. The July jobs data triggered the highly-watched recession indicator known as the Sahm Rule, but what exactly is it? More: https://lnkd.in/eCY5eqNf #yahoofinance #finance #economy #markets #money