Endro SUNARSO, CPP®, PMP®, FSyl, F.ISRM’s Post

https://lnkd.in/gAwBr6Fh

As expected, all talk no action. ASEAN cannot do anything but talk & issue watered down statements that do not mean much. Since the Feb 2021 coup, violence has surged through Myanmar as ASEAN ponders how to address the problem. In June 2021, the division between ASEAN members over the approach on Myanmar became apparent when the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution to condemn the coup & demand the release of political prisoners in Myanmar. Within ASEAN, only 6 members (Singapore, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia & Myanmar) voted in favor of the resolution while the other 4 (Brunei, Cambodia, Laos & Thailand) abstained. At that time of the UN resolution vote, Myanmar’s UN ambassador, Kyaw Moe Tun, was a member of the previously ruling party, the National League of Democracy. This was an indication that obtaining consensus on the Myanmar crisis would be very challenging. ASEAN member states can be divided into autocracies & democracies, which impacts their decisions on how to address Myanmar’s military coup. For the last 3 years, ASEAN has been split on whether they should take a stronger stance against the violent actions of the junta. It has struggled to create a cohesive & practical approach to the Myanmar crisis. However it is constrained by the bloc's principles of non-intervention & consensus building which limits its ability to impose consequences on the military government in Myanmar. Despite these challenges, ASEAN has managed to take some action but implementation remains elusive. In April 2021, a 5-Point Consensus (FPC) represented a rare consensus among ASEAN members. The FPC called for an immediate end to violence in Myanmar, dialogue among all parties & the appointment of a special envoy. For Singapore, Indonesia & Malaysia, the FPC is an ultimatum that the junta must meet. For the other ASEAN members, it is an agreement that calls for dialogue since the FPC states that ASEAN should engage all parties, including Myanmar’s military government & the opposition groups, in the hope of bringing stakeholders to the table for negotiations. However, the FPC has become a meaningless statement, neither stopping the violence in Myanmar nor initiating fruitful dialogue among all parties. ASEAN's helplessness was evident as it could only meekly watch the junta stonewall the ASEAN special envoy. ASEAN has stumbled very badly in implementing an effective policy to address the significant political, economic & humanitarian crises that Myanmar faces. After a year of territorial losses, the junta is staring military defeat in the face. Out of desperation, it has called anti-junta forces to the negotiating table but to no avail. The junta no longer looks at ASEAN with disdain as it hopes to play for time by engaging anti-junta forces in endless insincere negotiations. If ASEAN cannot convince the junta to fully implement the FPC, it loses all credibility as a constructive group that can provide solutions amid regional crisis.

There is NO painting over the increasingly coercive & intimidating actions by the China Coast Guard & fishing militia. Be man enough to admit it, China is just a bully. China’s claim of more than 90% of the South China Sea (SCS) contravenes the established EEZs of 6 SE Asian countries. Within days of the nine-dash map’s release, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia & Indonesia lodged diplomatic protests. Beijing refused to budge, reiterating its “indisputable sovereignty over the islands of the SCS & adjacent waters” & “sovereign rights & jurisdiction over the relevant waters as well as the seabed & subsoil thereof.” In 2016, an international tribunal under UNCLOS found no legal basis for China’s expansive claims & authority, thereby invalidating the rights to resources & oversight each claimed feature provided. Although China is a UNCLOS signatory, which makes the tribunal’s verdict binding, China’s Foreign Ministry dismissed the ruling, calling it “null & void." After being rebuffed in international courts, China employed pugnacious forms of military coercion to secure de facto control of the SCS. China has waged “gunboat diplomacy” by bullying its maritime neighbors into accepting its illegal territorial claims. Hostile gambits designed to resolve territorial disputes through sheer force have undermined years of Chinese public diplomacy. Sensing the enmity, Chinese leaders have touted “cooperation” & “openness” to reach an amenable solution in the SCS. In practice, they invoke restrictions & incite armed confrontations. On 17 Jan 2022, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing would never wield its economic or military strength to “bully” other nations, particularly in the SCS. “Stressing only one side’s claims & imposing one’s own will on the other is not a proper way for neighbors to treat each other, it goes against the oriental philosophy of how people should get along with each other.” In 2022, at an ASEAN summit, President Xi said “China was, is, & will always be a good neighbor, good friend, & good partner.” He promised that China “absolutely will not seek hegemony or bully the small.” Top Chinese officials have lamented foreign powers that have stepped up manipulation & involvement in SCS disputes & prevented sustainable development. It takes a special kind of memory loss, acrobatic diplomacy, or mental bifurcation to peddle this narrative. China’s newfound “neighborly approach” produced a transient tactical shift, but Beijing’s revanchist strategy remain unchanged.

Is this a surprise? I think not. Anyone who did not see this coming was out of touch with reality.

Outgoing President Jokowi was never really interested in foreign policy & it showed. Incoming President Prabowo will likely play a far more active role if the past couple of months are any indication. With his military background & record, Probowo can be counted on to take quick, decisive & sometimes unpleasant actions to resolve issues. He may be diplomatic but certainly no pushover - a smiling tiger.

The purpose of ASEAN was to stabilize & manage regional relationships so that they do not boil over, putting the region as a whole, in a better position to navigate Great Power dynamics. ASEAN has never been to resolve inter-state disputes, to help untie every troublesome Gordian knot between its member states. It is to make sure that those knots do not swell up or worsen to the point where they can potentially strangle or irreversibly damage intra-ASEAN relations. Every member of ASEAN still has some issue or friction with another. The primary function of ASEAN is to merely to ensure that the region doesn’t fracture & allow external powers to capitalize on. Hence the emphasis in always about seeking consensus in order to preserve the unity of the organization. Think of ASEAN as a loose rafting together of various oddly-sized & oddly-shaped pieces of wood - the intention was not to build a cruise ship, but something sufficiently capable of holding together & floating, to navigate the choppy waters. There is no dispute resolution mechanism in ASEAN. Indonesia & Malaysia’s dispute over the Ambalat oil fields; the Philippines’ claim on Sabah; Thailand and Cambodia’s dispute over the Preah Vihear temple; plus the overlapping claims in the South China Sea - none of these have been resolved through ASEAN. They were mostly addressed bilaterally, on a state-to-state basis. Or through UN mechanisms. Going forward, the most important problem facing ASEAN is without a doubt, how to position ASEAN in the ongoing China/USA influence tug of war. Historically, China considered ASEAN to be an instrument designed to encircle it & kept a safe distance from the bloc. Economically there is no question that China is really the only major player out here. Politically its more tricky as there are countries within ASEAN with strong ties with the US. However if push comes to shove I believe they will decide on a rising close neighbor & not a far away declining power. But they would rather not have to make that decision yet. ASEAN has its disadvantages: 1. It is very challenging for ASEAN to reach a consensus. ASEAN houses 10 countries with different economic situations, political institutions & religions making it difficult to implement effective policies that are acceptable to all. 2. Economic cooperation between ASEAN countries are not exclusive & inclusive enough to increase regional trade relations. Their biggest trading partners are not fellow ASEAN members but China, the US, Japan, South Korea. 3. The influences & intervention of superpowers into the region. ASEAN members depend on China or the US in many aspects, including economics & national security. Thailand & the Philippines are US allies. Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar & Brunei are in China's camp. Malaysia & Indonesia seem to be recalibrating their foreign policies. Singapore & Vietnam are not taking sides & have chosen to maintain good relations with both superpowers. How can consensus ever be attained?

Awesome

When there is a will, there is a way. Given enough time & resources, any security or defence system can eventually be overcome/breached.