Energy, (Geo)Politics & Money (EPM)’s Post

DOOMBERG writes, Energy has driven much of geopolitical strategy since the advent of commercially developed fossil fuels. World wars have been decided by which side had the readiest access to oil, and diplomats around the globe seem to grasp why the Middle East sits at the center of much political jockeying—it isn’t because of the sand. Our entire financial system is predicated on cheap, abundant energy and would surely collapse in its absence. Energy is life, the lack of energy is death, and there is not much nuance in between. Ignoring these widely understood and deeply fundamental axioms of power, the current slate of Western leaders demonstrates a complete lack of knowledge of how the global energy markets work. Nowhere is this ignorance more clearly displayed than in the haphazard attempts to reduce Russia’s energy revenue by attacking its supply, a strategy guaranteed to backfire spectacularly for one simple and obvious reason: Putin would more than make it up on price. In early June of 2022, mere weeks into the sanctions regime, we spelled out the associated buffoonery in a piece called “Crazy Pills.” #lng #oilandgas #naturalgas #economy #stagflation #permianbasin #middleeast #russia #unitedstates

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Welcome to EPM, where we take our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Energy, (Geo)Politics and Money. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, we provide you both the information and the objective, neutral commentary that you need to make sense of it all – and beat the market. After a busy weekend, we look at the following in this round up: - Why the upward price spikes over recent weeks have been less than during earlier periods of significant Middle Eastern upheaval - Why jet fuel demand has not kept pace with the increase in flight activity - The focus of the world’s largest trading houses on harnessing the capabilities of Big Data and AI - The IMF view on the US economy, which is that it is being inflated by government deficit spending - The likely Israeli attack on Iran, which was downplayed by Tehran; where EPM provides its assessment, highlighting both what is reassuring and what is concerning in this latest event - The new $95 billion support package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan approved by the US House of Representatives. (EPM explains why we believe it is unlikely to change momentum on the Ukrainian battlefield; which came around the same time that the US announced it will warn China not to support Russia with weapons-related technology; we explain why this (clearly hypocritical) US position is unlikely to change the Russia – China relations - JPMorgan’s view that the world needs a “reality check” on its move from fossil fuels to renewable energy - Scotland’s decision to shelve its goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 75 per cent by 2030 from 1990 levels - The new EU law to place methane emission limits on Europe's oil and gas imports from 2030 - Tesla’s most recent price cuts in the US, across the board of its range of vehicles, including its self-driving software - The US plan to developed and implement advanced carbon offset standards to prevent green washing - Non-partisan, objective & neutral analysis where global developments in energy, business & geopolitics intersect & sourced from leading global sources. https://lnkd.in/gnEjNb_s #energy #energysecurity #energygeopolitics #geopolitics #politics #money #energypoliticsmoney #energyequity #EPM

By George McMillan The Situation The United States foreign policy planners have successfully separated their European allies from affordable energy sources by rapidly moving NATO Eastward to encircle all of the oil and natural gas pipelines emanating from Russia to keep them from infrastructurally integrating with Russia and ultimately allying with them economically, diplomatically and militarily. The US foreign policy planners have successfully replaced affordable Russian oil and natural gas delivered by overland  pipeline with Liquified Natural Gas shipped overseas that is roughly 30% more expensive. Since energy costs are in every step of making every consumer good and service delivering them, the US has successfully driven up the costs of all goods and services, yielding inflation, deindustrialization, job loss, and the decline in the standard of living in Europe. The problem that the US policy planners face now is how to replace the cheap Russian oil and natural gas delivered by pipeline with something that is equally affordable before the next election cycle. If the Europeans elect politicians to repair the Nordstream pipelines and return to purchasing Russian oil and natural gas by paying directly in Rubles, then the last 30 years of their effort, along with the hundreds of thousands of dead and maimed Ukrainian soldiers, will have backfired tremendously. The Purpose of NATO is to keep the US in Europe, to keep Germany down in Europe and to keep Russia out of Europe. The policy path chosen could completely reverse that and put Russia in Europe, unite the German World and Central Slavic World in Europe, and push the US out of Europe. The US foreign policy planners are acutely aware of this and are now desperately scrambling for solutions before anyone can figure out what is going on. The US policy planners have a history of: (1) destabilizing Iraq and essentially leaving Iran in charge, (2) destabilizing Syria and strengthening the position of Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon and Southern Syria, (3) destabilizing Libya with no solutions to restabilize it, (4) left $80 billion dollars’ worth of weapons and training to the Taliban during the withdrawal from Afghanistan in order to return to Operation Cyclone and disrupt Russian and Chinese infrastructure projects in Central Asia. For the Rest of the article and George's summaries, check it out on energynewsbeat.co and follow George for more updates and opinions. Tom Kirkman, Rey Treviño III, T Nemeth, Armando Cavanha, Irina Slav, what are your thoughts on the full article on News Beat? #nato #geopolitical ##eu

What economic indicators should be monitored to detect signs of China preparing for military conflict? This critical question was addressed at a recent Congressional hearing by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission. One expert who testified, Gabriel Collins of the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES), provided an in-depth look at the critical role energy plays in modern warfare. He highlighted that the production and stockpiling of energy resources, such as coal, crude oil, and natural gas, can reveal clues that China might be preparing for conflict. Ursa Space, mentioned by Collins in his testimony, provides satellite-based data that can be used to effectively monitor China for these warning signals. In a series of articles, we will explore this topic, discussing in greater detail the different signals and how they can be monitored, starting today with an overview. https://lnkd.in/eq2y852m

Welcome to EPM, where we take our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Energy, (Geo)Politics and Money. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, we provide you both the information and the objective, neutral commentary that you need to make sense of it all – and beat the market. After a busy weekend, we look at the following in this round up: - Why the upward price spikes over recent weeks have been less than during earlier periods of significant Middle Eastern upheaval - Why jet fuel demand has not kept pace with the increase in flight activity - The focus of the world’s largest trading houses on harnessing the capabilities of Big Data and AI - The IMF view on the US economy, which is that it is being inflated by government deficit spending - The likely Israeli attack on Iran, which was downplayed by Tehran; where EPM provides its assessment, highlighting both what is reassuring and what is concerning in this latest event - The new $95 billion support package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan approved by the US House of Representatives. (EPM explains why we believe it is unlikely to change momentum on the Ukrainian battlefield; which came around the same time that the US announced it will warn China not to support Russia with weapons-related technology; we explain why this (clearly hypocritical) US position is unlikely to change the Russia – China relations - JPMorgan’s view that the world needs a “reality check” on its move from fossil fuels to renewable energy - Scotland’s decision to shelve its goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 75 per cent by 2030 from 1990 levels - The new EU law to place methane emission limits on Europe's oil and gas imports from 2030 - Tesla’s most recent price cuts in the US, across the board of its range of vehicles, including its self-driving software - The US plan to developed and implement advanced carbon offset standards to prevent green washing - Non-partisan, objective & neutral analysis where global developments in energy, business & geopolitics intersect & sourced from leading global sources. https://lnkd.in/gz9gmhnD #energy #energysecurity #energygeopolitics #geopolitics #politics #money #energypoliticsmoney #energyequity #EPM

Welcome to EPM, where we take our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Energy, (Geo)Politics and Money. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, we provide you both the information and the objective, neutral commentary that you need to make sense of it all – and beat the market. In this roundup, we look at: - Why Middle East unrest has not driven oil higher for longer - Chinese state energy giant Sinopec efforts to build its first fully-controlled overseas refinery in Sri Lanka, and what this says about the company’s strategy - Why the Russian economy ministry has downgraded its forecasts for the country's crude oil export prices for the next three years to $65 per barrel - The step up in Israeli military attacks on Gaza, shortly after the US Senate approved further financing support for Israel; where EPM reflects on what this means for the “big picture” - Why the US believes that despite its economic challenges, China will push forward its plan to develop the military capability to invade Taiwan by 2027 - Why the US and Germany do not yet see eye-to-eye when it comes to China; and why some analysts believe the Germans are being shortsighted in this - Why the outlook for green hydrogen has severely soured over recent months - Why the White House climate envoy John Podesta’s recent remarks on policy effectively indicate that the US is working to develop a ETS plus CBAM system in order to close the border for Chinese products - Tesla’s very bad, no good quarter; and what the company plans to do in order to return to profitable growth - Why the transition to an electrified fleet for companies in the delivery sector is being slowed down by a lack of supply - Why Europe’s ability to survive a cold winter hasn't been tested yet, and where the risks remain https://lnkd.in/duf6tp8m #energy #energysecurity #energygeopolitics #geopolitics #politics #money #energypoliticsmoney #energyequity #EPM

After a few days of silence – technical issues… – we welcome you back to EPM! In this roundup of the latest news in the interconnected worlds of Energy, (Geo)Politics and Money, curated from the world’s leading sources of information, we look at: - Why and how geopolitics are likely to provide support to oil prices this week - Why in the view of Mohammed El Arian, India has already become “systemically important” to the global economy, and what this will require from Indian policymakers - The most recent developments in the Israeli War on Gaza; where EPM explains the current U.S. plans, as well as Netanyahu’s response - Why the U.S. has asked Ukraine to stop attacking critical Russian energy infrastructure - The continued talks between the U.S. and Iran, on removal of the U.S. sanctions on Iran - U.S. and Japanese plans to significantly upgrade their security alliance to counter China - The strong pushback by European airlines against forthcoming European SAF mandates, which they say will harm their global competitiveness - Why inflation and financing concerns are causing South East Asian nations to slow down their energy transition plans https://lnkd.in/gWjEe76g #energy #energysecurity #energygeopolitics #geopolitics #politics #money #energypoliticsmoney #energyequity #EPM

Welcome to EPM, where we take our daily look at the interconnected worlds of Energy, (Geo)Politics and Money. Curated from the world’s leading sources of information, we provide you both the information and the objective, neutral commentary that you need to make sense of it all – and beat the market. In this roundup, we look at: - Vitol's view that oil price are likely to remain in the $80-$100 per barrel range this year, supported by oil demand growth of 1.9 million barrels per day - JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon’s view that the oil & gas divestment movement is “wrong” and “enormously naïve” - US plans to continue increasing sanctions on Russian energy exports - The meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Beijing, just days after the visit to China by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen - The “drumbeats of war” that in the EPM view can be heard in the hallways of the buildings where the EU political and military elites gather; where EPM explains why we believe this is not in the EU’s economic interests - The political pressure on Israeli prime minister Netanyahu to attack Rafah, in defiance of the Biden administration’s wishes - The view that €800bn investment is necessary to meet the EU 2030 climate targets, and a total of €2.5tn is needed for the bloc to complete the green transition by 2050 and stay in business - TotalEnergy’s energy transition strategy https://lnkd.in/grFKRAyb #energy #energysecurity #energygeopolitics #geopolitics #politics #money #energypoliticsmoney #energyequity #EPM

Here's the latest non-partisan, objective & neutral analysis of global developments curated from sources covering the world of energy, geopolitics & investment. https://lnkd.in/gFeUJtys #energy #energysecurity #energygeopolitics #geopolitics #politics #money #energypoliticsmoney #energyequity