EPSRC’s Post

Extreme UK flood levels are happening much more often than they used to, analysis shows Louise Slater Professor of Hydroclimatology, University of Oxford Jamie Hannaford Principal Hydrologist, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Heavy rain across southern Britain meant that a vast majority of rivers in England swelled at the beginning of 2024, prompting widespread flooding. The River Trent was among the most severely affected. Water levels at the Drakelow gauging station in the west Midlands reached 3.88 metres on January 4 – well above the previous record set less than four years earlier in February 2020. Are floods growing larger and happening more often in the UK? There are two ways to answer this question. One is to consult computer models which project Earth’s climate in the future, and the other is to search the historical record. Climate projections are important but highly uncertain as they indicate a wide range of potential futures for any given river. Projections also only tell part of the story as they do not reflect the patterns of water use, changes to groundwater levels or to the urban environment that can decide flooding on a particular river. Join our readers who subscribe to free evidence-based news That’s why we give equal importance to historical data, although we cannot project past changes directly into the future. Historical archives of river monitoring data can help us understand how the largest floods are changing on the River Trent. For instance, how is the 50-year water level (the highest point a river would be expected to reach in 50 years on average) changing? On the River Trent at Drakelow, the 50-year water level has risen from about 3.46 metres in 1959 to 3.83 metres in 2024. This means the largest floods are indeed getting bigger Read on at https://lnkd.in/eDG6yehj

“Don’t forget us … changing precipitation in the U.S. Northeast” While the U.S. southern, western, and midwestern states often headline national water news … the northeast is also experiencing historical baseline changes in hydrology. It is well documented that since 1996 there has been a marked increase in extreme precipitation across this region.  Yet, the response of flood seasonality to these changes in extreme precipitation and the spatial distribution of these effects remain largely uncertain. What does it all mean for flood managers? Historically, snowmelt-dominated northern regions were relatively insensitive to changes in extreme precipitation.  However, under recent climatic warming, the dominance of snowmelt floods is decreasing.  Consequently, extreme flood regimes in northern regions are becoming increasingly susceptible to changes in extreme precipitation. While extreme precipitation increased everywhere in northeastern U.S. in 1996, it has since returned to near pre-1996 levels in the coastal north while remaining elevated in the inland north.  The inland north region has and continues to experience the greatest changes in extreme flooding seasonality, including a substantial rise in floods outside the historical spring flood season.  This has been particularly noticeable in smaller watersheds. Study results highlight that treating the entire Northeast as a uniform hydroclimatic region conceals significant regional variations in extreme discharge trends.  It is likely that climatic warming will increase the sensitivity of historically snowmelt dominated watersheds to extreme precipitation. As the authors maintain, understanding this spatial variability in increased extreme precipitation and increased sensitivity to extreme precipitation is crucial for enhancing disaster preparedness and refining our water management strategies in affected regions. For the full breadth of the study, please see Richardson, Renshaw, and Magilligan (2024) in Hydrological Processes, “Spatial Variation of Changes in Extreme Discharge Seasonality Across the Northeastern United States”

Flood scheme launch to erase modelling uncertainty #ukfloods #floodsscheme #emergingrisks #floodadaptation https://lnkd.in/e7dvhGpC

#RES_Focus Title：Global prediction of extreme floods in ungauged watersheds Authors：Grey Nearing, Deborah Cohen, Vusumuzi Dube, Martin Gauch, Oren Gilon, Shaun Harrigan, Avinatan Hassidim, Daniel Klotz, Frederik Kratzert, Asher Metzger, Sella Nevo, Florian Pappenberger, Christel Prudhomme, Guy Shalev, Shlomo Shenzis, Tadele Y Tekalign, Dana Weitzner & Yossi Matias Abstract： Floods are one of the most common natural disasters, with a disproportionate impact in developing countries that often lack dense streamflow gauge networks. Accurate and timely warnings are critical for mitigating flood risks, but hydrological simulation models typically must be calibrated to long data records in each watershed. Here we show that artificial intelligence-based forecasting achieves reliability in predicting extreme riverine events in ungauged watersheds at up to a five-day lead time that is similar to or better than the reliability of nowcasts (zero-day lead time) from a current state-of-the-art global modelling system (the Copernicus Emergency Management Service Global Flood Awareness System). In addition, we achieve accuracies over five-year return period events that are similar to or better than current accuracies over one-year return period events. This means that artificial intelligence can provide flood warnings earlier and over larger and more impactful events in ungauged basins. The model developed here was incorporated into an operational early warning system that produces publicly available (free and open) forecasts in real time in over 80 countries. This work highlights a need for increasing the availability of hydrological data to continue to improve global access to reliable flood warnings.   Source：Nature DOI：https://lnkd.in/eA-uNWDs #floods #prediction #artificialintelligence #forecast

#NOAA, #USACE Team Up on New Pilot Project to Improve #Drought and #Flood Forecasts ✍ Theo Stein, NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service | NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) | #flooding #forecasting #floodprevention #floodmitigation

Global prediction of extreme floods in ungauged watersheds - hydrological simulation models typically must be calibrated to long data records in each watershed - artificial intelligence can provide flood warnings earlier and over larger and more impactful events in ungauged basins - the model was incorporated into an operational early warning system that produces publicly available (free and open) forecasts in real time in over 80 countries

Given the increasing global concern over the intensifying frequency and severity of flood events due to climate change. International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) Presents the webinar "Adaptive Flood Management: Inundation Forecast and Mitigation" will delve into advanced methods and strategies for forecasting and mitigating flooding in rural areas and farmland. REGISTER NOW !!!   https://lnkd.in/dudDv5tZ The need for adaptive approaches that can respond to evolving climatic conditions and unpredictable weather patterns is more pressing than ever. Traditional flood management techniques are proving inadequate in the face of these new challenges, underscoring the need for innovative solutions. This session will explore the science of inundation forecasting, the latest technological advancements in flood prediction, and practical mitigation measures that can be implemented at local, regional, and global levels. By bringing together experts from various fields, we aim to foster a comprehensive understanding of adaptive flood management and provide actionable insights to enhance resilience against future flood risks.

This is a really important study as it demonstrates one of the really tangible community benefits from these projects - communities who are often several miles downstream from the sites. We should be looking at high risk areas for flooding (South Esk for example) and targeting these areas with restoration and afforestation projects.

Floods are difficult to prevent but can be managed in order to reduce their environmental, social, cultural, and economic impacts. Flooding poses a serious threat to life and property, and therefore it’s very important that flood risks be taken into account during any planning process. This handbook presents different aspects of flooding in the context of a changing climate and across various geographical locations. Written by experts from around the world, it examines flooding in various climates and landscapes, taking into account environmental, ecological, hydrological, and geomorphic factors, and considers urban, agriculture, rangeland, forest, coastal, and desert areas. Features Presents the main principles and applications of the science of floods, including engineering and technology, natural science, as well as sociological implications. Examines flooding in various climates and diverse landscapes, taking into account environmental, ecological, hydrological, and geomorphic factors. Considers floods in urban, agriculture, rangeland, forest, coastal, and desert areas Covers flood control structures as well as preparedness and response methods. Written in a global context, by contributors from around the world. Link: https://lnkd.in/dJkE8AVF

“Levee setbacks … keeping an eye on the primary objective” Levee setbacks are considered an important nature-based solution for managing large rivers and their diverse ecosystem services. In fact, they are part of a growing array of “nature-based solutions” with potential to not only improve flood protection provided by levees but also strengthen the climate resiliency of levee-protected communities and enhance overall conservation of riverine biodiversity. While such seemingly diverse benefits reveal the potential for “win-win” solutions between people and nature, let’s not forget that flood control must have TOP PRIORITY … and in an age when the full threat of intensifying storms, river peak flows, and inundation extent are largely UNKNOWN ... flood protection must have priority over EVERYTHING else. Levee setbacks have historically been implemented in an ad-hoc, reactive manner, resulting in not only missed opportunities for system-scale flood risk management and the additional societal and ecological benefits inherent such strategies. The image below summarizes many of the important considerations to ponder when selecting sites for implementing levee setbacks as noted by van Rees et al. Please see van Rees et al. (2024) in WIRES Water, “An interdisciplinary overview of levee setback benefits: Supporting spatial planning and implementation of riverine nature-based solutions”