As the game of soccer has evolved, the significance of a great midfielder — adept at both offense and defense — has become paramount. As investors, we see parallels in the financial world. What was once a set and rigid for investors – aka the 60/40 portfolio structure based on 60% equities for growth and 40% bonds for risk protection – is now more open and fluid. To use the soccer analogy again, equities are like the forward and wingers of the financial game, focused on offense with high volatility and high reward. Bonds, with their relative stability, are your defense, offering yield with a potential buffer against downturns. Cash, the ultimate safety net, is your goalkeeper. It preserves capital and offers liquidity, waiting to be called into action. But in finance, like in soccer, the Volatility Gap™ between equities and bonds can similarly expose a portfolio to potential losses. Think about that 60/40 portfolio. The risk is in the asset allocation itself, and most advisors are overlooking it. Notably, 93% of the volatility in a traditional 60/40 portfolio is rooted in its equities portion. Given the historical standard deviations and drawdowns of the asset class given their higher volatility, equities contribute disproportionately to the portfolio’s overall volatility. The result? Equities are delivering high returns to investors with a lot of volatility, but fixed income is not negating that volatility. They’re actually matching it, with almost no return. That’s the volatility gap, and it is inherent in any stock - bond portfolio.
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PE Turned Financial Advisor. I help engineers: • Design financial plans • Pay less tax • Build more diversified portfolios
Here is a concept every investor (and baseball fan) should understand: Reversion to the mean. In mid-April, I posted about how Aaron Judge was off to a slow start. He was batting about 100 points below his career average of .281. Fast forward to today and his average for the season is back in line with his career average. That’s not surprising at all. He reverted to his mean. That being said, it has taken an average during May of .376 to get him back to that point. He is unlikely to sustain that pace as well since it is too far above his career average. Investing in assets can be just like this. Assets tend to revert back to their long-term averages. Just beware that slumps and hot streaks in assets can last over a decade. Patience and a long-term plan are key to staying the course!
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The Premier League season has kicked off once again and many will be attempting to put together and maintain their own fantasy football teams. We can draw several parallels between building your fantasy football team and constructing an investment portfolio, where both aim to select the right mix of players (or assets) that compliment each other to achieve the best results. By combining different factors such as value and quality, investors aim to create a more resilient and diversified portfolio that can perform well in various market conditions. Just like in factor investing, building a successful fantasy football team requires selecting players based on their performance metrics and potential. You need to find the right balance of factor exposures to create the optimal portfolio/team. Key factors to consider: Value: choosing cheap players (assets) worth more than their fundamental worth – undervalued assets that deliver more than their price suggests Momentum: selecting trending players based off recent form, like owning stocks on an upward trajectory, they may look expensive, but that performance could continue to accelerate Quality: reliable, seasoned veterans that stay healthy and rarely miss a match (or a dividend) – not always the star players but dependable points scorers less likely to disappoint It is essential to regularly assess your team based on new information – prices change, form comes and goes, and reliable winners can be overcome by injury (market shock) or transfers (takeover), so rebalancing to maintain factor exposures is essential for consistent performance. For more details on our Passive and Enhanced Indexing capabilities please get in touch with your usual abrdn representative. #SystematicInvestment #MarketAnalysis #FactorInvesting #abrdnQIS #QIS #EnhancedIndex #Passive #IndexInvesting #FantasyFootball #PremierLeague
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⚾📈Picture this: A baseball player is up to bat; the pitcher is 60 feet away, where a baseball is thrown at 100 MPH (give or take); the batter is meant to make split second decisions to swing or not. Talk about a difficult call in a short period of time! Now think about those decisions in terms of investment management. Although there are not reports flying at 100 MPH, there are many factors that need to be assessed in a short period of time. Clint McGarvin, CFA, slows the pitch down in his recent writing, follow the link to read more. https://lnkd.in/grf84iph #InvestmentStrategy #WealthManagement #MarketAnalysis #Baseball
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Here's an in-depth examination of the traded picks by the #Bears and the consequential waves they sent throughout the #NFL. 👇 #DaBears https://lnkd.in/esNs9r22
Analyzing the Bears' 2024 NFL Draft Trades and Their Impact - Chicago Sports Nation
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Like baseball, success in investing is rarely determined by constant transactions and tinkering. In fact, frequent trading can work against investors. For more, please see A New Season Begins by Brian Kozel, CFP® https://ow.ly/qHft50QEhH3
A New Season Begins
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Jayson Tatum needs to bring Boston a championship this year. After a number of respectable playoff runs, it seems this year must be his time to bring his team to the ultimate goal. Tatum was the 7th highest scorer in the NBA this season. But his scoring is not enough to bring Boston a championship. It takes much more than side-step 3-pointers to win a championship - passing, rebounding, transition defense, coaching and hustle plays are just as important. Many people are quick to look at an NBA players shooting ability and decide that he is elite, the same way they see a good rate of return and think they have a great financial situation. A true financial picture is not just about a strong rate of return. Excellent cash flow allocation, risk management, and proper tax strategies are all important in building a championship worthy financial picture. (Celtics over Nuggets in 7)
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What does the Federal Reserve have to do with coaching? It has to do with prudently making decisions. Starting with the end in mind, the goal, defining steps, seeking guidance and wisdom from others where necessary, acting intelligently, and being ACCOUNTABLE. Being prudent in balancing courageousness/fearlessness with giving thought to your steps and actions. “Counting the cost”, avoiding harm to yourself and others, and learning to live without fear of all risk.
I may not currently work in finance, but I think I'm still allowed to write about the FOMC meeting. The FOMC decision is in many ways much like decisions MLB General Managers had to make at yesterday's trade deadline. Maybe we can learn something about decision making from the FOMC? Maybe. Or maybe we could all learn to stop reading FOMC recaps! Maybe we'll learn the wisdom that Warren Buffett quipped in 2015, when he said: "We think any company that has an economist has one employee too many" and that he bases no decisions based on economic predictions. The Federal Reserve System does have a lot of economist... https://lnkd.in/gEBFTJDa
FOMC Recap: FOMC Trade Deadline Edition
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The Most Profitable Cards to Buy Now: NFL Quarterbacks, Carson Beck, Najee Harris, and More Discover the most profitable trading cards to invest in right now, including NFL quarterbacks, Carson Beck, Najee Harris, and more. Get insights into the potential returns and why these cards are worth buying. Don't miss out on this opportunity for significant gains! #TradingCards #InvestmentOpportunity #NFLQuarterbacks #CarsonBeck #NajeeHarris #TradingCardInvesting #SportsCollectibles #CardFlipping #ProfitableInvestment #TradingCardMarket
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Fantasy and betting updates: Rookie of the Year odds improving for Cameron Brink, Angel Reese by Eric Moody Eric Moody takes a look at the fantasy and betting information you need to know. https://ift.tt/czNKHTC
Fantasy and betting updates: Rookie of the Year odds improving for Cameron Brink, Angel Reese by Eric Moody Eric Moody takes a look at the fantasy and betting information you need to know. https://ift.tt/czNKHTC
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Security Researcher & Development | Cloud Security | Application Security | DevSecOps | SOAR & SOC SME
“My first rule of hitting was to get a good ball to hit.” – Ted Williams In baseball, as in investing, patience and selectivity are key. Ted Williams, one of the greatest hitters, knew that success doesn’t come from swinging at every pitch—it’s about waiting for the right opportunity. In investing, this translates to being deliberate, analyzing carefully, and only acting when the right opportunity presents itself. “In investing, when the right opportunity comes along, hit it hard.” – Stanley Druckenmiller When you finally find that opportunity, it’s time to act decisively. Stanley Druckenmiller’s words remind us that once conditions are favorable, conviction is essential. Whether it’s in business, life, or investing—wait for the right moment, and when it comes, give it your all. #Investing #Opportunities #Patience #Success #TedWilliams #StanleyDruckenmiller #Strategy #BusinessGrowth
“My first rule of hitting was to get a good ball to hit” - Ted Williams In investing, as in baseball, it’s tempting to swing at every pitch, especially when markets are rising and fear of missing out takes hold. The most dangerous mistake is swinging at the wrong pitches. Selectivity is key. Minimizing type 1 errors keeps us in the game long enough to let our winners compound. https://lnkd.in/gzQXTASr
Minimizing Type 1 Errors (Excerpt From Our Latest Letter)
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