European Policy Centre’s Post

Today in Asia Times, I wrote about the escalating tensions between the Philippines and China over the US Typhon missile system. China's opposition to the Philippines' potential acquisition of the missile system has intensified regional geopolitical conflicts, with Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro asserting the country's right to bolster its defense capabilities. The article also highlights the internal political feud between Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte, which China may exploit to destabilize the current administration. Furthermore, the article discusses the historical context of elite co-optation in Philippine politics and the reliance on external powers for regime stability. It examines the potential implications of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty and the challenges faced by the Philippines in its military modernization efforts. The piece concludes by considering the broader regional impact of these developments and the strategic maneuvers of both the US and China in Southeast Asia.

Precisely. As warned, repeatedly. This will result in an immediate, kinetic #ww3. #Baltics are #nato; response will be immediate with European and #US_forces heavily engaged. NATO is much stronger. Russia will be stopped in a few weeks… THEN is when Putin will be at his most dangerous: he will unleash the #nukes ☢️ Probability? 90+% (I’ve known him personally and well for 30+ years). The only way to prevent this #endgame-to-end-all-endgames is to be absolutely certain Russia is stopped IN #Ukraine—before gaining anything Kremlin leadership sees as a significant win. Simply put: Stop RUS *before* they round first base—and we can prevent a #nuclearwar. Otherwise, everybody dies 💥 #understandingrussia #understandingputin #kremlinology #nuclearsecurity #nationalsecurity #standwithukraine 🇺🇦

"Russia is preparing for war in the Baltic." Russia's plans to target NATO next after Ukraine, likely focusing on the Baltic states, as revealed through investigations by journalists in Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia. Edward Lucas describes how Russia is reconstituting its forces near the Baltic states while also using Kaliningrad as a base to facilitate sabotage and perpetrate attacks on infrastructure similar to those already used in Lithuania in 2015. Russia aims to pose strategic dilemmas to NATO with sub-threshold attacks and that NATO's limited responses so far have weakened its credibility, meaning even a small unpunished attack on its territory would end the alliance. Therefore, these frontline states must develop strong defense and deterrence or risk jeopardizing Europe's safety and freedom.

In a powerful call for unity, Ukraine's President Zelenskyy emphasizes that securing Ukraine's future hinges not only on European support but critically on U.S. involvement, especially under the new Trump administration. As geopolitical tensions rise and Russia's aggression continues, relying solely on EU guarantees is insufficient for Ukraine's sovereignty. Zelenskyy’s plea signals a pivotal moment: if Ukraine is to strengthen its NATO aspirations, it needs unwavering backing from both Europe and America. This alignment is essential not just for military strategy but also for economic stability in the global market, particularly within defense and energy sectors. As we witness these dramatic shifts in international relations, it's evident that collaboration is key to fostering peace and security. Investors and policymakers alike should take heed—supporting Ukraine today could pave the way for a more stable tomorrow. What are your thoughts on Ukraine’s strategic moves?

In my latest article for The Fletcher Forum, I explore strategic steps the West can take to ensure Ukraine's victory in the ongoing conflict. From military support to economic aid, I outline a comprehensive path forward that can secure not only Ukraine's success but also a stable, democratic future for Europe. Read more about how these actions can shape the geopolitical landscape. #Ukraine #Geopolitics #InternationalRelations

My latest article and executive summary of the in-depth report "Why Russia Cannot be Allowed to Win Against Ukraine" It is actually more than ten years since President Vladimir Putin began his war against Ukraine and two years since it launched a full-scale invasion. What the final outcome will be remains unclear, though most analysts identify three possibilities: (1) A frozen conflict or a peace agreement based on the present front line or something close to it. (2) A Ukrainian victory in which Russia’s forces are expelled from all of Ukraine. (3) A Russian victory in which all or a large portion of Ukraine is occupied. I focused on the last scenario, because it is the outcome that will have the most significant negative consequences for both Euro-Atlantic and global security. A “stalemate”, “frozen conflict” or a compromise, where Ukraine cedes the occupied territories to Russia, is tantamount to a delayed Russian victory entailing many of the same consequences. A Russian victory in Ukraine will have devastating consequences for Euro-Atlantic and global security. In the words of Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy: “If Ukraine loses, we lose.” NATO’s border with Russia will increase from today’s 2,553 to 5,887 kilometers. Russian anti-access/area denial capabilities will move nearly 900 km closer to Warsaw, Berlin, Paris, Brussels and London, enabling the Kremlin to control most of the Black Sea and much of Northern, Eastern and Central Europe. A Russian victory will be perceived as a Western and NATO defeat, given that the Euro-Atlantic community and its partners, including Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, have publicly committed to supporting Ukraine. It will be ascribed to a Western lack of will and failure to realize its capabilities to stop Russia. The Euro-Atlantic community especially will suffer a significant reduction in its diplomatic, economic and military reach. A Russian victory in Ukraine will represent the completion of the first step in the Kremlin’s broader strategy. The potential gains of victory for Russia significantly outweigh the costs the West is presently inflicting upon it. To deny Russia a victory – and ensure European security and stability – the US, Europe and NATO urgently need to adopt a new strategy based on the enduring factors set out in this article. They must acknowledge that Ukraine is only one step in a broader Russian strategy. They must also recognize that Ukraine is crucial to both European security and the credibility of NATO. https://lnkd.in/dFSHnuQn

EU and NATO members enjoy democracy and prosperity to such an extent that our comfort zone has become remarkably secure—and dangerously complacent. This earned and well-deserved comfort has led to absurd policies: trading with dictators as if they were human rights champions, failing to act decisively when Crimea was annexed, and hesitating to supply Ukraine with the resources it needs to win its war against Putin. Our comfort zone is undermining our role as policymakers against war criminals who disregard laws, ethics, and any notion of stability. Today, there are calls to send EU troops to Ukraine and extend the range of weapons into Russian territory. Effectively, we are headed at treating Ukraine as a NATO member without making it official. The solution is clear: accept Ukraine’s NATO membership request now. By doing so, we formalize the defense that should have been established long ago, with fewer risks now than ever before, we solidify the protection Ukraine, EU, NATO and allies fundamentally needs. Our war is not—and has never been—against Russia or its people, but against their dictator, what also put us as their allies, and not enemies, in their struggle for freedom and democracy in Putin’s controlled zones. Russia would not loose its integrity as Japan or Germany didn’t as the autocrats were no more. This step would bring clarity, strength, and the decisive victory against Putin that the world needs.

A Russian victory in Ukraine will have devastating consequences for Euro-Atlantic and global security. In the words of Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy: “If Ukraine loses, we lose.” NATO’s border with Russia will increase from today’s 2,553 to 5,887 kilometers. Russian anti-access/area denial capabilities will move nearly 900 km closer to Warsaw, Berlin, Paris, Brussels and London, enabling the Kremlin to control most of the Black Sea and much of Northern, Eastern and Central Europe. A Russian victory will be perceived as a Western and NATO defeat, given that the Euro-Atlantic community and its partners, including Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, have publicly committed to supporting Ukraine. It will be ascribed to a Western lack of will and failure to realize its capabilities to stop Russia. The Euro-Atlantic community especially will suffer a significant reduction in its diplomatic, economic and military reach. A Russian victory in Ukraine will represent the completion of the first step in the Kremlin’s broader strategy. Ukraine is crucial to both European security and the credibility of NATO. Putin’s special operation must fail and when it does, Czar Putin will be ousted and not gracefully! 👺

The qualities we need in a leader in crisis: Direct, honest and with integrity With the return of war in Europe, NATO is facing the most volatile security environment since it was established. Its ongoing Russian aggressions in the West is no different than its aggressions in Ukraine from 2014 until 2022. Its use of non-military means is so far its main effort and includes acts of terrorism; sabotage, arson; jamming of commercial navigation signals; cyber and electronic interference; influence operations; interference in elections and referendums; simulated attack profiles against key military installations and NATO warships; infringements of freedom of navigation; and violations of the sea and air space of NATO member states. The EU Parliament has stated that Russia is waging a hybrid war against the EU and its member states. On 14 Oct, Bruno Kahl, Head of Germany's Foreign Intelligence Service said that "By the end of this decade at the latest, Russian troops will be able to attack NATO". Vladimir Putin is concerned not only about Ukraine but also about "actually creating a new world order." Eastern Europe has long realised Russia’s imperial ambitions and aggressive intentions. This is why their politicians are far more outspoken than their peers in the US and Western Europe: Yesterday, the Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said: "We are aware that Ukraine's defeat will pose a threat to the existence of all of us". According to Landsbergis, "if we do not agree that our goal is a complete and unconditional victory for Ukraine, we will push Ukraine not to peace, but to surrender". He stressed, that so-called "peace plans" that do not meet Ukraine's demands are simply calls for surrender and will never lead to a just and lasting peace.” His statement is supported by many others with intimate knowledge of Russia. "We are living in the most critical moment since World War II. The next two years will decide everything", Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on 28 Mar. One day later, he stressed that “There is a "real" threat of conflict in Europe and that the continent has entered a "pre-war era" for the first time since World War II. […] We haven't seen a situation like this since 1945." “Russia "has become a problem for the world order and for democracy," and thus it is waging war not just against Ukraine but also "with the democratic world.", General Gheorghiță Vlad, Romania's Deputy Chief of Defence Staff, said on1 Feb 2024). "There is a war going on in Ukraine for the future of the whole of Europe", Finnish Defence Minister Antti Häkkänen said on 24 Dec 2023). These are only some of many statements with similar message. This is why we need leaders like Landsbergis: Direct, outspoken, honest and with integrity. Cartoon: Robert Ariail