Another month, another goose egg for U.S. apartment rents. Rent change year-over-year came in essentially flat for a 10th consecutive month in April, up just 0.13%. It's the same ol' story: Rents are growing in low-supplied markets and falling in high-supplied markets, averaging out to zero nationally.
For all the chatter about affordability and "overheating" and everything else, nothing correlates with market-level apartment rent change like supply.
Rents continue to fall most (4-7%) in high-supply (and still high-demand, too, just not enough to keep pace with supply) markets like Austin, Jacksonville, Atlanta, Raleigh and Orlando. The silver lining for operators in these markets (and elsewhere) is that the depth of rent cuts are stabilizing ... meaning that while it's not getting better, it's also not getting worse ... and could stay that way through 2024.
Meanwhile, rents continue to climb most (4-7%) in low-supply markets mostly in the Midwest, Northeast or in college towns (which also have little supply). That list of rent growth leaders has featured the non-usual-suspects of late -- the likes of Syracuse, Buffalo, Dayton, New Haven, Rochester, Lansing/East Lansing, Lexington, Lincoln, Madison, Louisville, Grand Rapids, Wichita and Providence.
Among large markets, the top rent growth markets were Milwaukee, Cleveland, Kansas City, Washington DC and Virginia Beach -- all around 3% to 3.5%. What do those five share in common? No surprise: They're all adding supply at a below-average pace compared to the country as a whole.
It's all about supply and demand. And remember that supply is the easiest variable to forecast. It's just starts pushed forward. And we know starts are plunging almost everywhere, which means lesser supply -- especially by the second half of 2025 and into 2026.
So barring an economic shock that weakens demand drivers, the rent growth leaderboard will likely see a big shakeup / return to some normalcy by then, with today's laggards jumping up as supply wanes and concessions burn off.
#multifamily #apartments #rentalhousing
Investment Specialist at CJ Capital
2wSince housing cost per individual is high, therefore few people can afford home price. It is a dilemma in Morden city due to U shape effect of delay output per input. We are also looking for market equilibrium however the delay effect disport the order therefore we shall think always six months ahead otherwise we are always loser