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One economic report sent the 10 year spiraling down from 4.25 to 3.85 in one day. Refi applications instantly spiked. 10 year moved back up to 4.0 within a week. Question is, how fast will you be able to rehire staff when rates drop lower? If you have portfolio loans, our patented Reset Technology does not require back office staff and can be live in 30 to 60 days.

Our industry is transitioning from the ultra-low interest rates of the post-Great Recession era. The Federal Reserve is now addressing inflation by increasing overnight interest rates and reversing quantitative tightening, balancing its focus on both inflation and unemployment. This is leading to the following: - Industry Vulnerability: Fewer term deposits and increased money migration risk. - Abundant Deposits: Entered 2022 with more deposits than loan demand. - Market Response: Rising interest rates force bankers to reconsider deposit structuring and pricing. - Depositor Awareness: Increasing recognition of potential earnings on deposits. High-performing bankers can change the game by: - Letting inactive depositors remain undisturbed. - Efficiently engaging with curious and actively seeking depositors. This balanced approach helps banks thrive amid economic changes. Learn all of this and how to bullet proof your deposit strategy with ALM and deposit expert Neil Stanley here at Banker's college. #deposits #ALM https://lnkd.in/ghA_gsPC

Courtesy of MarketWatch: "What we realized is that for most people, it was still too complicated,” Leif Abraham, Public’s co-founder and co-CEO, told MarketWatch. “It’s like, can we just simplify it for you? Basically the same as we did for the U.S. T-bills for the Treasury account, but do it for corporate bonds." "This is what led Public to launch its Bond Account, another automated account that allows people to invest across 10 corporate bonds to lock in yields higher than what Treasurys are offering. As of Tuesday, Public says, this yield is around 7.3%." Public is a Forecast Labs portfolio company. https://lnkd.in/e6m6hfuu

Fed translation: When you heard the words, ‘Transitory’ and ‘Temporary’ that meant it was going to be a little while. Now we hear, ‘Premature.’ Tomorrow will bring another word or phrase that may be very subtle but point to easing and rate cuts ‘further on up the road.’ From UBS to Goldman Sachs, there is widespread predictions of 2 to 6+ rate cuts for ‘24 into ‘25 with most calling for 4-5 next year. That will directly affect residential mortgages and should partially mitigate the $1T+ short term financing problems in commercial real estate. 30yr rates and 10yr Treasuries already anticipating the cuts by dropping .75% or more the past 6 weeks. Cross your fingers.

For private equity market in the US, 2023 turned out to be a bad year and the pain won’t likely end until it’s clear that central banks have truly decided to stop hiking rates. US private equity firms bought or sold $871 billion in assets last year, the lowest level since 2016 and the projected rate of distributions to private equity investors was the second- smallest in a quarter century. The main factors responsible for this performance included high borrowing costs, economic uncertainty and sluggish fundraising. And as they’ve been slow to return capital to pension funds and other key investors, once-reliable clients are maxed out on the cash they’re willing to allocate to such investments. The value of IPOs also fell 60% in 2023 from their peak two years ago. In spite of the turmoil, investors are sitting on record amounts of cash which augurs increased deal-making in 2024, and lenders are increasingly interested in private equity transactions, particularly less risky purchases. Also, for the PE market to take off, the real catalyst will be an assurance that the Fed will not raise rates ay further. (Source: Bloomberg Businessweek)

Good morning Key Headlines • EUR fights back on month-end flows • Busy week ahead raising chances of volatility Recap Friday started with the EUR getting some support on month-end flows, as well as strong corporate demand for the currency. GBPEUR eased off the highs seen on Thursday, and EURUSD climbed back above the 200-day moving average. USD trading was flat after the core PCE inflation year-on-year came in lower than expected, and personal spending came in higher. So mixed data but there was a minor pick up in treasury yields, and a slight easing of March rate cut expectations. Today’s Overview No major data points today but the rest of the week is going to be busy. Let’s begin with the EUR. So last week markets added to the odds of a rate cut in April which weakened the EUR. There is an upside risk of these bets being eased should Q4 GDP numbers on Tuesday come in higher (Expected -0.1%), and inflation numbers on Wednesday come in higher than an expected drop to 3.2%. For GBP, Thursday's Bank of England meeting will be in focus. Recent data showing an uptick in services inflation will likely prompt the Bank to stick to its mantra that interest rates will stay at 5.25% for longer. Communication and the voting will likely indicate no more hikes are on the cards but there will be a hesitancy to show an inclination to cut interest rates. So as long as this plays out and the environment in the market remains risky, GBP seems likely to stay well supported. Finally, USD. The Fed in December took a dovish turn, but Fed speak has been pushing back against the market pricing of the amount of rate cuts expected this year. Fed chair Powell will likely continue to push back, especially on the current expectation of a rate cut in March. Job numbers are also out throughout the week in the form of JOLTs job openings, the ADP payroll report, and on Friday the nonfarm payroll numbers, unemployment rate, and hourly earnings. Anything to suggest the job market remains strong will likely lead to the market easing expectations of a cut in March, and this will be USD positive. Equals Market Analysis– 29th January 2024 (https://lnkd.in/dAs3P_t)   This document has been prepared solely for information and is not intended as an Inducement concerning the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. By its nature market analysis represents the personal view of the author and no warranty can be, or is, offered as to the accuracy of any such analysis, or that predictions provided in any such analysis will prove to be correct. Should you rely on any analysis, information, or report provided as part of the Service it does so entirely at its own risk, and Frank eXchange Limited accepts no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage you may suffer as a result. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made as to their accuracy.

While the Fed’s dovish pivot may signal the worst of inflation is behind us, there are several dangers lurking in the year ahead that could bring a resurgence in inflation, upending plans for policy normalization. Nevertheless, in our view, central banks will indeed start calibrating real rates – even absent a recession – which should be supportive of risk assets. With this backdrop, UBS Hedge Fund Solutions (HFS) plans to increase exposure to fundamental equity and carry-focused credit strategies, while marginally reducing allocations to Trading, namely systematic approaches. Learn more in the HFS Q1 2024 Strategy Outlook. #shareubs #hedgefunds #alternatives #assetmanagement

Is Jamie Dimon on to something? The perfect storm is an upcoming #USElection and a booming private credit sector with piles of debt and unsold assets. ”It’s more than a decade since the #GFC (Global Financial Crisis) was caused, in part, by shadow banking. Is the booming private credit sector the same thing, but with better branding?” - J.Dimon #JPMorgan ”46% (of assets) has been held for four years or more - the biggest share since 2012.” - #Bain https://lnkd.in/gZFvqagy

Economic Outlook: Anticipating Rate Changes in 2025 The Federal Reserve's June 2024 projections indicate a potential rate decrease in 2025. Currently, the federal funds rate median is at 5.1%, with a forecasted drop to 4.1% next year. This projected decrease could have significant implications for businesses and investors, affecting borrowing costs, investment strategies, and economic growth. Navigating Rate Changes with Confidence Understanding these changes is crucial for making informed financial decisions. At Simple Financial LLC, we specialize in guiding clients through complex financial landscapes. Whether you're optimizing your investment portfolio or strategizing your business finances, our expertise provides the clarity and direction you need. Our comprehensive consulting services (personal, family, and business) are designed to help you adapt and thrive in any economic environment. We ensure your business is well-prepared for future financial shifts. What can you do to benefit from the FOMC Projections? 1. Prepare for Lower Borrowing Costs: As interest rates are projected to decrease, plan potential investments or expansions that could benefit from reduced borrowing costs in 2025. 2. Strategize Asset Allocation: Consider reallocating your portfolio to take advantage of sectors likely to benefit from lower rates, such as real estate, dividend-paying stocks, large cap growth, and cryptocurrency. 3. Review Existing Debt: If you have variable rate loans, monitor them closely and plan for possible refinancing opportunities in 2025 to capitalize on lower rates. Don't let market uncertainties dictate your next move. Contact Simple Financial LLC today for strategic financial guidance. Together, we can build a strategy that ensures your financial stability and growth, regardless of the Fed's next move. #FinancialPlanning #InvestmentStrategy #InterestRates #FederalReserve #EconomicOutlook #BusinessConsulting #SimpleFinancial #CFOservices #BusinessGrowth For more info contact: Justin Lizama, Principal of Simple Financial 801-876-1171 jlizama@simplefinancial

Holy moly. The Fed can legally self-monetize contingent profits as if they exist and de-monetize "negative liabilities" as if they don't exist (I am lost in its double negation metaphor). This is a quintessential example of the state-capital nexus, which allows the Fed's allegorical accounting practices by legally enforcing the monetary unit principle that otherwise cannot be enforced under natural law with the coercive forces of the artificial political state imposed on people. The Fed is now printing anti-money instead of fiat currency, and circulating anti-money in the economy is like drinking seawater when you are thirsty. The monetary sovereignty of the people's economic commonwealth should be placed above the public governance authority of the political state - That is the essence of the new social contract. Abolish the Monetary Unit Principle and Sever the State-Capital Nexus!