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Weekly Roundup 7/12/2024 - Global equity markets are reaching new highs 💡 The global economy and the markets maintained their impressive expansion in the second quarter. Inflation has been trending lower and expectations for rate cuts are rising. Further support for equity market returns has come from continued mega-cap technology outperformance with the artificial intelligence (AI) theme. 💡 A few key takeaways from the US inflation report 💡 The Fed will likely need to see only relatively tame inflation in July to give the all-clear to cut interest rates in September. Fed funds futures currently imply a 90% probability of a September rate cut. #wealthmanagement #financialliteracy #financialplanning

Weekly Roundup 7/12/2024 - Global equity markets are reaching new highs 💡 The global economy and the markets maintained their impressive expansion in the second quarter. Inflation has been trending lower and expectations for rate cuts are rising. Further support for equity market returns has come from continued mega-cap technology outperformance with the artificial intelligence (AI) theme. 💡 A few key takeaways from the US inflation report 💡 The Fed will likely need to see only relatively tame inflation in July to give the all-clear to cut interest rates in September. Fed funds futures currently imply a 90% probability of a September rate cut. #wealthmanagement #financialliteracy #financialplanning

Global stock markets rallied in July as some weakness in the technology sector was more than offset by softer inflation data in the US, which supported the case for monetary easing and bolstered equity-market sentiment. Government bond prices were higher as investors priced in further rate cuts in 2024. Global economic data was mixed, with some signs of slowing in the US, while Eurozone output showed improving trends. Inflation slowed in the US, leaving the potential for the Fed to cut rates in the coming months. Meanwhile, political risk remained in focus in Europe, with elections in the UK and France. In the US, politics took a dramatic turn as there was an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, and President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race.   Our Market Pulse discusses these themes and outlines our outlook for markets over the next 12 months. Download our pdf for the full story.  https://lnkd.in/eexw2jxq #marketreview #ILIM #equities #bonds #economicoutlook #outlook

📊 Connecting the Dots: Global Stocks Rally After Wild Week of Volatility 📈 🎢 Fasten your seat belts. We're in for a bumpy ride. A week that started off with a $6.4 trillion global stock rout and a broad rally in bonds ended relatively quietly, calming from historic volatility triggered in part by the prior week’s disappointing US jobs report. Equities recovered and traders pared back massive bets on a fast and furious loosening of monetary policy, underscoring the jitters in the market as investors try to calibrate the timing and pace of interest-rate cuts. The next test will come with inflation data this coming week. SOURCE: Bloomberg The reaction to the US job data 1 1/2 weeks ago shows that stock markets are on a hair trigger. It's a year filled with massive turbulence. 🇺🇸 A hotly contested U.S. election 🗳 Elections in over 40 countries 📉 Wild stock market fluctuations 💥 Tension in the UK and Bangladesh 🤖 Artificial intelligence 📈 Inflation 💣 Wars Anxiety and extreme reactions to unfavourable economic data are to be expected. How can you and your team prepare? 🔮 Keep abreast of trends. 📈 Stay ahead of the curve. 🧰 Equip team members with the tools to innovate. 🛍 Find new markets for their products and services. The bottom line is innovation is imperative. Want to thrive no matter what the economy throws at you in 2024? Via the links in the comments, download a complimentary 11-page excerpt from: 🍋 Lemons to Lemonade: Squeezing Opportunities out of Adversity When Business Goes Sour 🧰 What specific tools and strategies are you using to ensure your business thrives in 2024? 💰 Are you prepared to take advantage of the opportunities to build your personal portfolio when stocks tumble? #economy #stockmarkets #teambuilding #innovation #linkedintopvoices My Visexecutaries and Lemons to Lemonade team building simulations equip executives and their teams with the tools to thrive amid turbulence. Access the details via the links in the comments. Pop me a PM to set up a Zoom call to discuss how I can help your team foster innovation. https://lnkd.in/eeynDGDr

**Blackrock - 2024 Global outlook – Q2 update** - Upbeat market sentiment has room to run We see little in the near term to disrupt the market’s perception that inflation is slowing, growth is holding up and rate cuts are coming. We think the risk of resurgent inflation could eventually dent the mood - Deliberately navigating macro risks remains key Market pricing of Fed rate cuts has been dialed back in line with our view thanks to a persistently tight labor market and sticky services inflation. We still think markets are hoping for deeper rate cuts than are likely in the long term. - We stay overweight U.S. equities and keep leaning into AI The growing heft of sectors with high-quality earnings and AI-exposed names in the S&P 500 – notably tech and telecommunications – is helping stocks overcome the drag of higher interest rates - We stay selective in fixed income We are underweight investment grade credit and prefer taking risk in equities, with maturities posing a risk to spreads. We close our underweight to European inflation-linked bonds as breakevens have repriced towards our view

The latest inflation data shows pricing staying hot. While equity markets seem unfazed by the risk, bond yields are on the rise. The macroeconomic conditions present a mixed picture, leading New York Life Investments' Global Market Strategy team to share insightful charts that shed light on the current landscape. Check them out in this week's #MacroMonday: https://bit.ly/3TPJdlx

Since late 2020, I have been consistently more bullish the economy and (rates-hedged) equities, particularly on the US, than the consensus, despite fully expecting the timing, pace & level of Fed hikes we had in 2022-'23. I still am positive on the US economy with one important caveat: excluding the potential for "exogenous events". But 2024 worries me because the likelihood of such events has become unnervingly high. The confluence a multiple long-running political, geopolitical, policy, and economic trends has created the potential for event risks that would otherwise be unimaginable (and judging by market pricing and commentary, still are to most). I describe these risks fully in the just completed "May you live in interesting times" series, a preview of which you can see below. To read the series, you'll need to subscribe to Thematic Markets where you'll receive the best value in the world of macro research. It will definitely be the best investment decision you make this year. Next up... How do you structure your portfolio to efficiently hedge against the unimaginable, and perhaps unhedgeable, while still participating in the ongoing boom if we (fortunately) elude this year's exogenous risks?

Markets have been very volatile lately. What’s going on? Let’s take a quick look at the factors that are influencing markets right now. 1. The bull market narrative has shifted. For months, investors have told a “Goldilocks” story of a strong economy, tamed inflation, and interest rates that were soon to drop. However, stronger-than-expected economic data and sticky inflation have now complicated the story, and investors have become wary. (1) There are still plenty of reasons to be optimistic, but investors are being careful and taking in earnings data to gauge the upside potential of the next weeks and months. 2. Interest rates are likely to stay higher longer than we expected (or wanted) A strong economy and hot inflation mean the Fed is now getting cold feet about cutting interest rates. (2) Recent comments by Fed chair Jerome Powell suggest the Fed will keep rates high until economists are confident inflation is fully in reverse. Some analysts are even pricing in the odds of another rate hike if inflation continues to remain high. (3) Since investors have been banking on rate cuts coming soon, the new “higher for longer” reality is causing them to reevaluate their positions, further stoking volatility. 3. Geopolitical flare-ups are causing tensions to rise. With Israel and Iran trading attacks and a spring offensive gearing up in Ukraine, there are plenty of geopolitical worries, sadly. Some good news (if there is any good news when so many lives are at stake) is that geopolitical shocks typically only have a temporary impact on markets. (4) We don’t know what lies ahead, but we hope and pray for a peaceful end to the violence. Volatility is normal after a prolonged rally. Here’s the bottom line: volatility after a strong rally is very common. Especially at the beginning of a new quarter when investors are digesting earnings reports from the previous quarter and reassessing company performance. However, given that the U.S. economy remains healthy, with a strong jobs market and robust consumer spending, my team and I don't see a major risk of a correction turning into a serious downturn. (5)

Q2 Market Update continued: Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Strategic Adjustments As we approach mid-2024, global markets are influenced by inflation expectations and economic resilience. Early optimism for rate cuts has faded, with expectations now adjusted to one or two cuts. Our Head of Research, Shane Wang discusses recent economic developments and our strategic responses including: ➡ Increase exposure to quality small companies, favoring those with strong balance sheets and defensive cash flows. ➡ We're cautious on growth equities due to potential earnings disappointments and rising discount rates. ➡ Maintain an underweight position in treasury bonds to protect against fixed income volatility. Our diversified, defensively tilted portfolios aim to navigate the mixed economic outlook. Learn more about our positioning and insights in the Q2 video below 👇 #inflation #marketupdate #macro #managedaccounts

The latest inflation data shows pricing staying hot. While equity markets seem unfazed by the risk, bond yields are on the rise. The macroeconomic conditions present a mixed picture, leading New York Life investments' Global Market Strategy team to share insightful charts that shed light on the current landscape. Check them out in this week's #MacroMonday: https://bit.ly/48Z4xt5