Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei’s Post

#FEEM | #Publications | #WorkingPapers 📝 𝐹𝐸𝐸𝑀 𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑃𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐕𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐄𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐌𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐬 ✒️𝐴𝑢𝑡ℎ𝑜𝑟𝑠 Andrea Bastianin (Università degli Studi di Milano - Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) Xiao Li (Università degli Studi di Milano - Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei - Università degli Studi di Pavia) Luqman Shamsudin (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei - Università degli Studi di Milano) 📄𝐴𝑏𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡 The transition to a cleaner #energymix, essential for achieving net-zero greenhouse #gasemissions by 2050, will significantly increase demand for #metalscritical to #renewableenergy technologies. #EnergyTransitionMetals (#ETMs), including #copper, #lithium, #nickel, #cobalt, and #rareearth elements, are indispensable for renewable #energygeneration and the #electrification of global economies. However, their markets are characterized by high #pricevolatility due to supply concentration, low substitutability, and limited price elasticity. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the price volatility of ETMs, a subset of #CriticalRawMaterials (#CRMs). Using a combination of exploratory #dataanalysis, data reduction, and visualization methods, the authors identify key features for accurate point and density forecasts. The authors evaluate various volatility models, including Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (#GARCH) and #StochasticVolatility (SV) models, to determine their forecasting performance. Findings reveal significant heterogeneity in ETM volatility patterns, which challenge standard groupings by data providers and geological classifications. The results contribute to the literature on CRM economics and #commodity volatility, offering novel insights into the complex dynamics of ETM markets and the modeling of their returns and volatilities. 🔗 Download the paper here 👇 https://lnkd.in/d-Q8nmsk

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