Forbes India’s Post

-On 79th #VicoryDayParade in #Russia, Confident #Putin weaponises sentiments of Soviet victory over #Germany, wherein despite losing more than 27 million Soviet citizens killed in the 'Great Patriotic War', it secured victory. -Threat from West including recent statements from #macron (soldiers in Ukraine), #cameron (Use of long range vectors on Russia) #scholtz (deployment in Lithuania), responded with nuclear references " by saying “Russia will do everything to avoid a global confrontation,” “But at the same time, we will not allow anyone to threaten us. Our strategic forces are always on combat alert.” -Putin hailed soldiers in #RussiaUkraineWar (Special Military Operation as per Russia) as heroes having faced brunt of heavy casualties. -Russia speeded up operations, launched more than 70 missiles and drones overnight in one of its largest barrages against #Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. up operations in battleground. #majorgeneraldrsbasthana

🔥 Avdiivka, a Pyrrhic victory? A Russian T-72B3 tank burns brightly near Avdiivka, after hitting an #Ukraine mine. 🚩 The invaders felt so confident, they were flying a bright Russian flag atop their tank. ☝️ Tanks are painted in camouflage colors to blend in with the environment. Planting a big, brightly colored flag on top of it achieve the opposite effect. 💥 Ukrainian #military commanders estimate that 47,000 Russians were 𝐤𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐝 or injured in the battle, which is significantly higher than the pre-war population of Avdiivka of around 32,000. The estimated 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡 toll, 17,000, would be higher than the Soviet army’s during the 10-year war in Afghanistan. 📈 Those numbers are impossible to verify, but there’s no doubt the losses were exceedingly high - a point of sensitivity for the Russian government. This week, a pro-war Russian military blogger 𝐝𝐢𝐞𝐝 reportedly by 𝐬𝐮𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐝𝐞 after being forced to remove a post criticizing military commanders for the high casualties sustained in the battles. Britain’s Ministry of Defense also estimates the Russians lost more than 400 tanks in the battle. 🤔 Given those losses, it’s natural to wonder whether Avdiivka — not even one of the larger cities in Donetsk province, much less Ukraine — was a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians. Yes, in both Bakhmut and Avdiivka, the Russians demonstrated that with enough time, artillery ammunition, and human lives, they can take a small Ukrainian city, almost entirely demolishing it in the process. 🚀 But is this a sustainable strategy for victory over the second-largest country in #Europe ? “I do not think it’s sustainable, but it is what I think that they’ll do,” retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of the #USA Army in Europe argues the war would come down to whether Ukraine could count on continued Western support. “They’ll do it because they can see that we are starting to waver.” 🚨 Avdiivka was a long and draining fight for both sides, and though it’s likely the Russian losses in the battle were far greater, Ukraine may have less of an ability to absorb those losses. The battle for Avdiivka may have taken place in the fields surrounding the city, but the road to defeat may well have started in Washington, DC. ⚠️ The biggest problem is artillery ammunition: Last summer, Ukraine was firing more artillery shells than Russia per month. Now with supply shortages, it is firing less than a fifth of what the Russians can put out “If you don’t have shells, then courage alone will not be enough to win,” said Yehor Cherniev, member of Ukrainian Parliament. Cherniev says it's “cynical” of opponents of military aid to point to losses like Avdiivka as evidence that Ukraine can’t win. “First, they don’t give Ukraine shells, and then they lament that it has lost a populated area and claim that Russia cannot be defeated,” ⚖️ We in the West must ensure Avdiivka remains a pyrrhic victory. #Intelligence #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦

🔍 𝗡𝗘𝗪 𝗣𝗨𝗕𝗟𝗜𝗖𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡 by Joris Van Bladel, Ph.D. "𝗠𝗮𝘀𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀: 𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮’𝘀 𝗠𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘁 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝗲𝘀" @EGMONT - Royal Institute for International Relations 1️⃣ Russia's military structure still mirrors that of a mass army, increasingly leaning on Soviet traditions. This sobering reality is underscored by the tragic lessons learned from the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka 2️⃣ Russia's adept use of information warfare, electronic warfare, drones, and its formidable nuclear arsenal elevate it to the status of a significant military power 3️⃣ Its true essence lies in its ability to maintain its size despite the challenges of warfare: the attrition caused by harsh campaign conditions, the temptation for individuals to desert, and the firepower of the enemy #Russian #Military 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗶𝘁 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 👉 bit.ly/49RqZWb 

• Despite many efforts and the investment of huge sums, more than twice what is allocated to the regular army, the IRGC never became a military force in the classical sense. Rather than being the army of a nation-state, it morphed into an armed force that owns a nation-state. • The defense doctrine developed almost 30 years ago is obsolete. With Iran's demography on a downward trend, the 20-millon man army that Khomeini dreamed of would require recruitment among djinns and fairies. In 1977, the average Iranian couple produced 5.6 babies. That number is down to 1.3, which, taking into account mass emigration by young Iranians, leads to a dramatic demographic deficit. • And how could the “Zionist foe” assassinate so many top civilian and military officials without help from local groups who for whatever reason bear a grudge against the present leadership? —𝐀𝐦𝐢𝐫 𝐓𝐚𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐢

It is astonishing that the West can do nothing against Iran and North Korea due to their delivery of weapons to Russia, particularly North Korea. As long as there are no effective ways to make them fear anything, the Ukraine war could continue. According to the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Putin's plan looks like as follows: The war should end only next year. Of course, Putin wants to end it only with Russia's victory. If the West could infrict Russia huge blows this year, then the war could even end earlier. Determination is needed. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR), commented on the support Russia receives from North Korea. He described Kim Jong Un's regime as Putin's biggest ally, providing the Russian army with crucial ammunition needed for operations in Ukraine. Budanov believes that the support from North Korea cannot be compared to any other country that is on Russia's side and cooperates with it. From the Ukrainian point of view, large-scale deliveries of ammunition, mainly artillery ammunition, are the biggest problem. This mainly concerns 122 mm caliber shells (containing up to 3.5 kg of TNT) and 152 mm caliber shells (up to 8 kg of TNT), which form the basic arsenal for numerous Russian artillery systems. While 122 mm caliber howitzers generally have a range of up to 15 km (e.g. in the 2S1 Gvozdika system), the range of 152 mm caliber howitzers can be up to 20 km (e.g. in the 2S3 Akatsiya system) - and that is only for the simplest projectiles with a slanted rear end. The Russians can increase the range by using rocket projectiles, but it is unclear whether Pyongyang can also supply larger stocks of such projectiles. Source: 1. (https://lnkd.in/dSdm9AVx) 2. (https://lnkd.in/dvDKZeh7)

Ajay Bisaria's book on the 2019 Pulwama attack and #India-Pakistan air battle misses key facts: 1. Pakistan's broad daylight strikes post-Balakot. 2. India's 'operational paralysis.' 3. IAF's fratricide incident. 4. Pakistan's calibrated response. 5. India's military restraint. 6. Air Marshal Hari Kumar's forced retirement. 7. Shift in nuclear usage narrative. 8. India's uncoordinated PR and media narrative. 9. Questionable media claims debunked. Rewriting history may serve political agendas, but the truth persists. #Pulwama #IndiaPakistanRelations

January 10, 2024, Key Events of the 686th day of Russia's war with Ukraine. Putin's nuclear bluff worked: The U.S. missed the opportunity to help Ukraine turn the tide of the war in 2022. Sweden will deploy military personnel to Russian borders for the first time since the Napoleonic era. Last night, Russian forces shelled Kharkiv, specifically targeting a children's camp on the outskirts of the city. Iran has developed a new combat drone, Shahed-107, designed for the war in Ukraine. Those arrested in Moscow are being transferred to other regions due to prison overcrowding. The State Duma suggested that Russians should clear snow themselves due to a shortage of janitors. Rosstat warned of the threat of Russia's population declining to 19th-century levels. 🔊Stay tuned for more updates and stay safe! 🙏 🎙 Link on the full audio version in Russian at first comment.  #military #news #newspodcast #podcast #warinukraine #ukrainewar #ukraine #russia #russiaukrainewar

#Sweden has decided to upgrade the #IronOreLine, or #Malmbanan in #Swedish. The upgrades are necessary due to two recent derailments. Moreover, the country’s NATO accession requires the rail line to function properly at all times. The railway line in Sweden’s north is crucial for mining and military purposes. #railfreight #railfreightnews #railcargonews

Summary of the last two monthly meetings between Sergei Shoigu and Russian Armed Forces Leadership (held on January 9 and February 2, 2024) 📍 Priorities for the Armed Forces in 2024: 1️⃣ Ensuring the combat readiness of the nuclear triad. 2️⃣ Upgrading Army and Navy equipment with the latest weaponry. 3️⃣ Increasing supplies to troops in Ukraine, particularly with popular samples, especially UAVs. 4️⃣ Improving the CIS and ISR capabilities and air defense for troops in Ukraine. 📍 War in Ukraine 🔔 [still classified as the Special Military Operation]: 1️⃣ Russia has regained the strategic initiative following a failed counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces. 2️⃣ Accusation that the U.S. is cold-bloodedly pursuing its ambitions for world leadership at the expense of Ukrainian lives, which is believed to prolong the war without altering Russian goals 🔔 [still maintaining the position that the war is against U.S. neocolonialism and it's not relative to Russian imperialistic nationalism]. 3️⃣ Ukraine has lost 23,000 troops (KIA/WIA) in the last month (215,000 in 2023) 🔔 [no direct comparison is made with Russian casualties, while only the last month for Russia was challenging with nearly 30,000 dead/wounded soldiers, 500 destroyed tanks, a lost AWACS aircraft, and more than 5 jet fighters, along with two ships]. 4️⃣ Russia has claimed the liberation of villages Vesele, Krokhmalne, and Tabaikva in January 🔔 [however, it has to be noted that these villages had a small population of 34-100 citizens and while in Krakhmalne, 90% of the population were Ukrainians, it becomes clear challenging the notion of 'liberation' by suggesting 'occupation' instead]. 5️⃣ Ukraine is reportedly conducting regular and forced mobilization, also continuing to use cynical actions against Russian and its own citizens, while Russia is methodically attacking Ukrainian military infrastructure with PGMs (127 attacks in January) 🔔 [this points out that Shoigu's rhetoric still doesn't address Russian atrocities against Ukrainian civilians as part of the military strategy in this war]. 📢 In one sentence: Shoigu's narrative is centered on denying responsibility for the war and obscuring military failures.

19 Jan 14:45: The Times: NEW: (Online version only: Possible paywall for some, sorry): INTERVIEW | WAR IN UKRAINE: Nato commander: 'Our weakness is russia’s 👺🤮 strength. Our readiness prevents war': Lieutenant General Jürgen-Joachim von Sandrart argues that Nato is on its way to establishing a credible wall of deterrence: Oliver Moody, Berlin: Fri Jan 19 2024, 2.00pm, The Times: A few years after a break in the fighting for Ukraine 💙💛, the kremlin 👺🤮 seizes its moment and strikes at the Baltic states with overwhelming numerical superiority. While Nato forces clog up overstretched roads and railways across Germany and Poland in a race to reinforce the front line, the russians have captured more than half of the three countries' territory and most of their sizeable cities. The Suwalki Gap, the land bridge connecting the Baltic states to the rest of Nato, has been severed: Please read on: