Foreign Policy’s Post

I'm not an economist, or a military strategist, but: 1) We totally won the War of 1812, and Fort York was rebuilt bigger, and better. The yanks couldn't even properly repaint the White House. It still has burn marks. 2) I think we can convince Vermont and the other maple syrup producing states to secede and join us. That would give us Ben & Jerry's, which would be huge from a PsyOps perspective. 3) While we're the only country that ever sacked DC, and have nothing to fear militarily, we need to acknowledge that Trump is threatening a trade war, and the US GDP dwarfs ours. But that's because we've yet to start exploiting our most abundant natural resource: space. We can sell huge tracts of land to ambitious (and wealthy) polities like Lichtenstein that chafe at being labeled "microstates." 4) While both sides will suffer, Canadians are better prepared to cope with the economic consequences of a trade war because: a) we have a social safety net; b) there is a giant gold loonie in the ROM; and, c) we can we can roll up all the rims (and win). 5) If the situation with Cuba taught us anything, it's that the US is a waffler, and will rapidly walk back sanctions if they don't work right away.

Good morning from sunny, bright, currently 6 degrees hotter than the average daily high, Autumn Bahrain. Today is Wednesday 20 November 2024. The Duran have been in Budapest, Hungary this week meeting with important people in the private and public sectors. Hungary shared a border with Ukraine and has a good working relationship with Russia. Also bordering western Ukraine is Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Moldova. Still the constitution prevents any Ukrainian president from negotiating peace with Russia while Pres. Putin remains in office. Zelenskyy has sold off Ukraine to American interests. How much influence does Hungary have to get its neighbors to establish good working relations with Russia and how would Hungary achieve this? The USG wanted marginalization or isolation but as the sole strong arm hegemon, not a third world weakling. NATO and the European Commission were arms of the USG hegemonic octopus as were individual governments like but most certainly not limited to the UKG, Germany, Israel, Japan & the Philippines. But as we can see from the recent photos, the USG hegemonic octopus is sick and weakening. The intergovernmental Fusion (UKG term) had a goal to brainwash their citizens into a precipitous drop in living standards, including premature preventable death via poor, impoverished healthcare systems, while making billionaires out of themselves, see Zelenskyy & Co, & freeing up funding for citizen welfare & domestic infrastructure for the members of Fusion and war. It doesn’t appear all citizens have been or are sufficiently brainwashed. Will Hungary use all of this to bring about “regime change” by the people and dissenting or removed insiders in political parties who want a clean up throughout Europe & possibly the UK? If one thinks about the Paris Olympic opening and closing ceremony themes, it’s clear a different meaning can be given than perhaps intended by the creators in the use of symbolism for concealed messaging to the elite, the grotesque, Dadaism, bête noir, decadence, revulsion and revolution. Why should the West be allowed exaggerated overkill strikes for deterrence whether in initiation or response as acceptable while Russia, Iran and others (eg Syria, Lebanon, Iraq) be seen as stronger in accepting such blows without deterrence strikes? How much increase in numbers & physical violence of such blows should Iran, Russia et al accept? What distinguishes this strength in refraining from striking back, from being the adult in the room as the child kicks, bites, sets fire to the adult because everyone knows including the child that the adult has more strength and violence power, from the colonial cracker attitude that it whips the slaves and the slaves meekly obey absorbing the blows, pain and violence? Don’t we hear or read that these countries are all talk do let’s go ahead attack to our wildest dreams because they’ll do nothing either as a slave or the only adult? https://lnkd.in/d9PkNmvt

Good morning from sunny, bright, breezy, currently 4 degrees Below the average daily high, Autumn Bahrain. Today is Friday 29 November 2024. To be honest, I’m confused by Russia: it’s clear in and on Ukraine but confusing for me in Syria, not just domestically but regionally. There is that whole issue of Press. Putin, Erdogan and Assad negotiating to end the mess maybe 2 years ago that suddenly ceased; there is looking after, protecting & kinetically defending physically its own narrow interests in Syria but seemingly not going beyond for its host the collapse of which will adversely impact Russia’s interests; there is the close relationship between Russia and Iran but an Iranian high ranking officer was killed yesterday in Aleppo; why with all of Russia’s sophisticated intelligence & spy capabilities didn’t Russia warn both Syria & Iran about the AlNusra attack from Idlib on Aleppo’s suburbs as we know from Kevork Almassian that such movement started on or around 30 Sept. 2024 & was building up in early October(?); with the close relationship between Russia and China why is nothing being done in conjunction with Turkey to remove the Uyghurs from Idlib(?); what is the position of Russia with Iran as part of the Axis of Resistance & fighting War Criminal Israel and the position of Russia with Syria that’s crucial to & part of the Axis of Resistance - is there inconsistency here(?); what relationship, if any, will an unconditional surrender in Ukraine have on Russia with regard to Iran, Syria, Turkey and China (Uyghur terrorists & settlers similar in effect to Israeli settlers in the West Bank). Will the USG try to decouple Russia -Ukraine issue from the Russia-Middle East issue as it tried in the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire to decouple the Palestinian conflict from the Lebanese conflict? I will try to find retired Gen. Kellogg’s campaign policy dated April 2024 for Trump’s response to candidate Biden on Ukraine. Ret. Gen Kellogg has been appointed Trump’s peace envoy to Ukraine & being 80-years old has experience the NeoCon-Zionist Exceptionalists don’t. There’s a huge difference between a paper for campaign strategy on an issue to win the Oval Office against an incumbent all pollsters said would win by a landslide & formal, official government policy on the issue by a sitting government. That given, it seems to me the Oval Office & Congress are simply the attractive sugar coating on the bitter pill, which is that the Deep State runs foreign policy and it runs it both independently from the Constitutional structure and dictating to the White House and Congress what foreign policy will be. https://lnkd.in/dq9XS-Wn

Trade, defence, and more trade: What Europe’s watching out for in policies from Trump II. Specifically, tariffs, NATO spending and openness to China. Read more here about how European actors may respond. More analysis coming soon…

HCR clearly presents the threat to American Democracy from a 2nd Trump presidency. Trump must be defeated at the ballot box. Trump suggests that his forcible deportation of millions of aliens is somehow like president Eisenhower's action to deport 1.3 million Mexicans, most of whom had been invited to work in the US wartime economy. Millions of US military were returning from the war. Weapons production was stopping. A the jobs held by the Mexicans were disappearing. There was also a labor shortage in Mexico and the Mexican government wanted Mexicans to return from the US. Conditions now are very different. The US economy is strong and there are labor shortages in many areas. Mexico does not have a labor shortage.

"As Donald Trump prepares his triumphant return to the White House, American allies in Europe are waking up to a disagreeable reality. In Mr. Trump’s second term, the U.S. is going to be more powerful relative to its core allies than at any time in decades—and Mr. Trump’s second term is going to be even more disruptive and confrontational than his first. Sadly, with the exception of the U.S., much of the West is sunk in decline. A generation of poor performance in the European Union and Japan means that America’s traditional partners bring less and less to the table each year. Japan seems to be undergoing an awakening. But many of our most important European allies are contending with three decades of economic, political and strategic failure." #Europe #EuropeanUnion #InternationalRelations #Diplomacy #ForeignPolicy #InternationalAffairs #ForeignAffairs #Military #Defense #Navy #ArmedForces

Solidarity or Solidarność was the most important factor in the decomposition of the Soviet Union. Polish workers and intellectuals began fighting for their freedom in attacking the very foundation of the communist system. The refusal to submit to Soviet rule on every level shaked the very foundation of the Soviet state. #Poland #Solidarity #Solidarność https://lnkd.in/dHJtUsB2

The 2024 presidential contest, like those in 2016 and 2020, features a clash of #worldviews on US foreign policy. Just as there have been foreign policy swings since 2016 between the Trump and Biden administrations, the American public’s foreign policy mood has also alternated over the past eight years. Americans are well aware of the ongoing turmoil around the globe and a majority prefer that the United States continue to play an active role in world affairs. Majorities continue to recognize the importance of both alliances and superior military power to US national security and continue to favor #international trade.   But in an #election year, most Americans are focused on issues closer to home such as inflation, the economy, and American democracy. Still, Americans overall do not want a radical change to US foreign policy. Support remains strong for the core pillars of US foreign policy, and the past 50 years of #Chicago Council polling suggests that is likely to continue no matter who wins the presidency.   Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/d3rzaVpv  

#AutocraticAlliances #MultiPolarity As scholars and journalists and some investment houses seek to come to grips with the growing geopolitical influence of autocratic regimes, one of the leading thinkers on this subject, Anne Applebaum, has gained increased attention. #AnneApplebaum has highlighted the hypocrisy of Western finance and governments as a core talking point used by leaders like Putin to dismiss the moral superiority of the advanced democrátic societies. But this so called Western hypocrisy in embracing #authoritarianism and human rights violators (be they governments or corporate actors) has paradoxically enabled governments like #Russia and #SaudiArabia to also enrich themselves from the economic wealth and security offered by leading Western economies, strengthening their regimes in the process. The #UK government and the city of #London as a global financial center are notorious for their embrace of Russian money laundering and reputation washing, as one example. #Russia has returned the favor by backing Far Right politics in European countries like the #UK, helping produce the #Brexit exit from the #EU while more generally seeking to undermine the unity of Western democracies, including through its well documented and ongoing efforts to buy influence in the #GOP through #Trump and others in the #USA. The Russian invasion of #Ukraine illustrates this powerful destabilizing geopolítical development, as the #GOP has held up funding #Ukraine defense and a bloc within the #GOP bloc has waged a thinly-veiled pro Russia propaganda effort. #Trump considers Putin a "great leader" and defends him repeatedly. #Washington by far leads the way in global arms sales and has done so since the end of World War II, while also strengthening numerous autocratic client states that, for example, have protected American foreign direct investments in mining and oil that have threatened indigenous communities livelihoods through poisoning of their air and water (#Chevron in #Ecuador being one of the most infamous examples). The US "hypocrisy" of maintaining nearly 1000 military bases across the global while being the world's leading arms merchant (by far) does not go unnoticed in the #GlobalSouth. There #China has become a major trading partner for many emerging market democracies, for example in #Brasil, where its rapid growth in agro exports to China has helped grow the largest economy in #LatinAmerica.