Forex First’s Post

The US CPI for September 2024 came in at 2.4%, slightly above market expectations of 2.3%, reinforcing the view that smaller rate cuts may be appropriate. 📉 The Dollar Index, which rose to 103.11 yesterday, is now consolidating around 102.90. 💵 Brent oil is nearing the $80 mark as the market anticipates Israel's response to Iran's recent attack. ⛽ The rupee is expected to open around 83.95, with a likely trading range of 83.92 to 83.99 for the day. 🇮🇳 Lower cross-currencies against INR offer importers a good chance to cover short-term exposures. 📊

In July, the Eurozone CPI increased to 2.6%, slightly above the expected 2.5%. This rise indicates a growing cost of living across the region. As we approach the release of July’s report, will we see another elevated reading? Expect some strong volatility in the euro.

📈 U.S. #inflation growth in July, measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), matched market expectations, according to several #oil market analysts.🛢 ➡ The CPI index declined to 2.9% on a year-on-year basis in July, down from 3% on a year-on-year basis in June.📉 ➡ Inflation reading is gradually approaching the U.S. Federal Reserve's 2% target, which raises expectations of an interest #rate cut in September.💲💲 ➡ Lower #interestrates in the U.S. can boost #demand, making dollar-denominated commodities like #oil cheaper for holders of other currencies.🛢💵 ➡ The U.S. Fed is scheduled to discuss rate cuts on 17 and 18 September.📈 Read more on ENGINE 👉 https://lnkd.in/gvfFkdYY #usa #usinflation #inflation #useconomy #oil #oilprices #oilmarket #energy #news #economy #markets #oildemand #interestrate #usfed

The US CPI surprised the markets with a higher than expected number. This has moved the probability of a rate cut in June 2024 from 70 % to 62%. If the data from the US keeps coming in stronger and the CPI numbers don't come down, the rate cut probability will soon shift to July 2024. The dollar index has neared 103 on the above. Yuan has moved back towards 7.1950 while Gold has come off from an all time high. Rupee is likely to open around 82.79. The likely range for the day is 82.75 to 82.85.

TRADING AROUND THE GLOBE 2 SEPTEMBER 2024 NZD/USD drops to near 0.6250 due to diminishing odds of an aggressive rate cut by the Fed. USD/CHF weakens below 0.8500, eyes on Swiss CPI, GDP data. EUR/USD Holds above 1.1150, the constructive outlook remains intact. USD/CAD rises to near 1.3500 due to lower crude Oil prices. GBP/USD strengthens above 1.3100 as September Fed rate cut bets remain in play. EUR/USD edges higher to near 1.1050 following a dovish sentiment surrounding the Fed. XAU/USD gold continues trading in a familiar range just above $2,500.

Trade the Aussie on the CPI Data Today:   It has been a relatively quiet start to the week for Aussie Dollar traders, but that is likely to change early in the Asian session today with the release of the latest Australian CPI data. The key inflation number has been slowly falling lower raising hopes that the Reserve Bank will be able to pull the trigger on rate cuts later in the year. The last four prints came in below expectation and another lower result should see further pressure on the currency. The Aussie is currently sitting just above recent lows and strong trendline support near 65 cents and anything coming in significantly below the expected 3.5% year-on-year print will see those levels challenged in short order, with anything higher seeing a further relief rally towards resistance near 66 cents.   Resistance 2 : 0.6669 – Monthly High Resistance 1 : 0.6620 – Short-term Trendline Resistance   Support 1 : 0.6505 – Short-term Trendline Support Support 2 : 0.6442 – Yearly Low

As expected, CPI inflation couldn't dip to the level of expected 2.9% but remained soft at 3.1%. USD strong for now and rate cut expectations moderates further. INR of course broadly stable. We need to remember China is exporting disinflation from the supply side. Europe will be having dented demand. Overall 3.1% reading is not bad .. Economist's data expectation and subsequent heartbreaks appear more and more apt for knee jerk reaction.

CPI Key for Canadian Dollar Moves The Canadian CPI report today could drive big moves. Strong data might push dollar CAD lower, while weaker-than-expected results could create euro CAD buying opportunities. Traders are watching closely for this key event as the market positions for the outcome.

The latest CPI print from the U.S. Department of Labor confirms the risks we've highlighted since January: upside price pressures from geopolitical conflict, renewable volatility, and supply-side disruptions will add headwinds for disinflation. March's CPI reading showed consumer spending on electricity and gasoline as the biggest drivers of persistent inflation, with the energy price index gaining 2.1% YoY for the first annual gain in 13 months. This month's print beat market expectations and fueled a sharp swing in rate-cut sentiment. As a result, the dollar gained to over 4-month highs vs a basket of major currencies and a 33-year high against the Japanese yen. What should stakeholders consider through Q2? https://lnkd.in/gSgWGdPb ----- #federalreserve #interestrates #yen #dollar #energyprices #energyindustry

No major movers today. No major data flows too. FED's Barkin said yesterday that inflation has not come down yet substantially though a robust labour market gives FED room to caliber. Brent Crude has moved up a bit as ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas have stalled. USD INR trades 83.48. The likely range for the day is 83.42 to 83.54. Exporters may sell near term if USD INR nears 83.55.