Frontier Agriculture’s Post

Last Friday Argie government published the elimination of export quotas for corn and wheat, which was somehow expected and already priced by that time. The WHEAT is still under pressure, with the Brazilians in need of better quality than they could harvest and probably also to re build their stocks after the devastating storm in RGDS. So covering from both Argentina and Russia. Also in line with the recent rally of the RUS market, we saw an increase of ant 20 use/mt FOB Upriver, offered at $280 vs buyers on the $260´s. The CORN seems to be moving at least in Argentina, hearing strong demand for Jun/Jly to Nth Africa (Algeria / Morocco) and to neighbors Perú and Chile.  Brazil cash premiums firming up. The MEALS market is focused on June (although some sellers already finished their program for this month). Both the crush and the traders are covering June shorts with the farmer selling (not very big) of these days. There is still not much liquidity for the market to advance on July (the book in general looks quite open for this position). Premiums are firmer on the spot/June (around +20n) and stable on the JASO (+12/+16smn). Current ARGIE LINE UPS: SBM   2,2 M CORN  1,8 M SBNS  1,1 M SBO   490K BLY    270K WHT   201K SOR   150K

#polishgrains ·      Tensions in the Middle East, delay in sowing in Russia and a potential reform of the current export tax supportive for the local cash prices ·      Corn and Wheat demand improving, premiums remain flat ·      Supply a touch better but still limited with farmers in the fields ·      EURPLN slightly weaker GENERAL Better movement in the Grains for the whole region: with HU continuing to buy PL corn, more fob demand for wheat and corn due to tensions in the middle east, rumors of a change in the export tax and sowing problems in Russia, as well as funds taking some short coverage of their matif positions. Dec-March spread again widening. A slightly better supply in wheat with better cash price lvls for farmers. Currency continues to weaken despite of the fact, that the PL Central Bank has not changed its policy. WHEAT Offers out of PL at +4/+3,5 for the same period do not find their bids atm, however general demand has increased. Baltics have sold/or washed out a cargo at +2 fob basis z24 in the beginning of this week. 13pro is being offered out of PL at +12 and I do see slightly higher quotes on other high proteins as well, that do not find their demand for now. Feed wheat premiums in East Germany have risen from -25 unto -18 delivered in Oct. CORN Situation has changed dramatically with closed trades at 202 for October shipments. With troubles in HU/ROM and barely any new supply out of UKR buyers have accepted, that previous lvls of 194-195 were a pre-USDA exemption and started actively searching for PL Corn. With little supply from the farmers and PL being the corn hub for Europe this season asks have quickly started to rise. Feb and March shipments have been traded at 206 and 208 before the price jump with similar lvls on coaster size being discussed for Nov shipments atm already. SMALL GRAINS Domestic market in PL remains main price driver with conducted sales at Triticale around           -34 Feed Rye around        -55 Barley around             -35 All basis October, fob equivalent. No new sales in export.   RAPESEEDS Premiums unchanged, demand for October remains, Crushers at matif -5 and 2nd hands slightly higher to cover.

If you’re a corn and soybean producer, you want to get the most for your grain. But, what should you be looking at when it comes to storage plans and the grain markets following harvest? Tanner Ehmke with CoBank offers some advice.

Update on the EU grain market! Dutch farmers are harvesting even less wheat than expected. Agrifirm and CZAV reported yields of 7.5 to 8 tons per hectare. However, quotations on stock exchanges and futures markets did not increase. And prices remain low. Make sure to check the full article at: https://ow.ly/yJxK50SPSub #Grain #EU #Market

Extract from VEA Brokers Ltd weekly report on grain markets, Dec 08, 2024 “ Weather This December is rather warm in the eastern Europe and so in Ukraine. But overall, last 5 years the month of December wasn’t too cold elsewhere around, may be with some exceptions for Christmas or New Year eve, but good there are lot of rains. Rains are everywhere around – in Ukraine, in Moldova, in Romania....it was wet and is wet and will be wet. Except for one place as the grain traders hear ... I don’t know really what happens in Russia, I would have said I don’t care, but my business is to find the data that I can sell, and I can’t sell “I don’t care”. They claim that more than 1/3 of their winter grains are in awful condition, however wheat is weed and every trader knows it....so few rains or some snow and it’s fine. It may getter better, if indeed it is such bad as we are all told. I don’t trust Russians for some personal reasons, I mean I trust not neither of their information sources that are called official, but on unofficial level we know A) There is a slower and conditionally poorer development of the Russian winter crops (mainly wheat is in focus); B) Farmer yet sit on good stocks of old crop wheat (current crop I mean); C) Inflation affects the plans and facts worse than any under-developed winter grains, as - Farmers do not wish to sell 3 days out of 5 in the week and for 2 days they sell – they tender wheat for best bidder only; - Similar applies to other agris, not just the wheat; - Logistical costs increased recently 15-17%; - Imports of anything useful for agriculture becomes even more difficult – sanctions beget inflation and so on and forth; But weather helps too indeed, or hurts. In any case, all we really know at this moment is that not positive scenario develops for Russian winter grains and Russian winter wheat is almost an absolute majority of wheat votes in the Russian wheat parliament.”

The scenario for the end of the week is the same as 15 days ago, owners moving quickly where possible. A wave of fresh inquiries hit the market, and the charterers are fixing quickly to lock in rates. That old market saying "Friday is fixing day !!!"? A large Handysize under our cp just finished discharging and was fixed from West Africa, An Unattractive market in ECSA leave owners with no choice but to avoid considering ballasting to ECSA. Next week, we will have a portion of the market still waiting in hopes of lower levels, while October demand may inject a bit more optimism into the market. Large boats, The forecast for the 2024-25 grain season notably projects a sharp 13% increase in Brazil's soybean crop, which indicates that dry bulk freight rates, especially in the Ultramax/Panamax segment, will receive support in the coming months, with a more positive sentiment for exports that have already begun this month, However, whether freight rates will appreciate remains a big question.

🇹🇷Quotas and stocks limit Turkey’s grain import appetite – ASAP Agri Demand for imported wheat from Turkish buyers is expected to remain limited in the near term due to current quota policies and largely sufficient domestic stocks, said Gözde N. Karagöz, a broker at Atria Brokers, during her presentation on 20 Nov at the online meeting of the Trend&Hedge Club, where ASAP Agri serves as the information partner. Details 👉 https://lnkd.in/dMwKBEZi

Daily news recap for 30.05.24 🌾 Chicago wheat futures fell further on Thursday from 10-month highs, as traders assessed whether forecast rain in parts of Russia would halt a rapid decline in harvest estimates for the world's top exporter. Soybean and corn futures were little changed after dipping on Wednesday following a U.S. Department of Agriculture report showing speedy planting progress in the U.S. Midwest. https://lnkd.in/dVXmq-Jy 🚜 European Union trade ministers agreed on Thursday to impose prohibitive tariffs on cereals, oilseeds and derived products from Russia and Belarus from July 1, a move that will "in practice" halt imports of these products. These measures will therefore prevent the destabilisation of the EU’s grain market, halt Russian exports of illegally appropriated grain produced in the territories of Ukraine and prevent Russia from using revenues from exports to the EU to fund its war of aggression against Ukraine. https://lnkd.in/dP9_8xit 🌾 The Ukrainian winter crop harvest for 2024 may start in a week in southern regions. The Ukrainian scientists saying that this year's harvesting campaign could start two weeks earlier than usual. https://lnkd.in/dpW5JQF6 ☀️ Most of Australia's main cropping regions are likely to endure a dry June but should grow significantly wetter from July. Though a dry June could worry farmers, particularly in areas such as Western Australia and South Australia that have mostly been dry in recent months, the outlook should support the country's crop production. https://lnkd.in/dWxJfQTX 🌾 Taiwan (FMA) purchased an estimated 96.85 tmt of milling wheat to be sourced from the US in a tender on Thursday. Sellers were believed to be CHS and ADM. https://lnkd.in/d4Ev_thQ

Daily news recap for 07.06.24 🌾 Chicago and Paris wheat futures extended losses on Friday to one-month lows as news of an import ban by Turkey weakened the demand outlook and eclipsed concerns over weather damage to crops in Russia. Corn and soybean futures edged lower, after rebounding in the previous session when news of tighter rules on tax credits in Brazil led to hopes that U.S. exports could benefit. https://lnkd.in/euavX-2D 🚫 Turkey will halt wheat imports from June 21 until at least Oct. 15 to protect farmers from price fluctuations, ensure domestic procurement of raw materials and create a favourable market for producers. https://lnkd.in/ejZNQ2vb 🌡️ Winter grain crops in Ukraine will ripen at least two weeks earlier than usual due to abnormally high temperatures in most regions in late May and early June. https://lnkd.in/e8FiWAJu 🚨 Russia is declaring a federal emergency in 10 regions because of damage to crops resulting from frosts in May. The move had been expected, after the agriculture minister said this week that she hoped it would be introduced and that it would pave the way for insurance claims by farmers. https://lnkd.in/eZ9jzXXQ 🌧️ Europe remains set for a smaller wheat harvest this summer after rain disruption in parts of France, Germany and Britain, but better conditions elsewhere may limit crop losses in a region that is a key exporter. https://lnkd.in/eUijQN48 📦 Tunisia purchased about 50 tmt of soft wheat and 75 tmt of barley in an international tender on Friday. The wheat was bought at $267.64-267.77/mt C&F from Bulgarian trading house Buildcom. The barley was bought at the lowest price of $219.49/mt C&F from trading house Amber. https://lnkd.in/e_3Aef_G

Government Reduces Wheat Stock Limits to control prices and increase supply in the market. - New Stock Limits: - For traders: Reduced from 2000 metric tons to 1000 metric tons. - For retailers and large retail companies: Reduced from 10 metric tons to 5 metric tons. - For processors: Reduced from 60% to 50% of their monthly installed capacity. - Duration of Limits: Stock limits will be in place until March 31, 2025. - Impact on Supply: The move aims to boost wheat supply and keep prices under control, especially as wheat sowing is ongoing and the new harvest is expected in March. - No Wheat Shortage: Government confirms there is no wheat shortage in the country. - Previous Stock Limit Regulations: First imposed on June 24 and modified on September 9, but had limited effect on prices. - Mandatory Reporting: All companies storing wheat must report their stock every Friday on the stock limit portal (evegoils.nic.in/wsp/login). - Penalty for Non-Compliance: Companies exceeding the stock limit or failing to register will face strict action. #WheatPriceControl #StockLimitReduction #GovernmentAction #WheatSupply #PriceStability #WheatHarvest2024 #FoodMinistry #WheatStockRegulation #IndiaWheatMarket #AgriculturePolicy #agribusiness