Paris 2024 Olympic Swimming - Submerged #2
Men’s 400 Individual Medley: This is the closest Olympic swimming comes to a one horse race. Marchand (FRA) has a “complete set” in terms of his 200m quality across all four strokes. His transitions (changing strokes) and underwater work are the best. He will excel in the breast leg and the more time he is swimming freestyle (fastest stroke) while the others are still on breaststroke (slowest stroke), he effectively doubles his lead.
After the easiest 4.08 I’ve ever seen in a heat, apart from Michael Phelps (USA) and Ryan Lochte (USA), one can throw back to the 1988 Seoul Olympics and you have a comparison in Tamás Darnyi (HUN).
Carsen Foster (USA) although fastest in the world this year and comfortable with a 4.11 in heats, will likely be chasing for second.
Women’s 100 Fly: Another chance for McKeon (AUS) to consolidate her place as Australia’s most medal winning Olympian but she’ll be doing it from the outside lanes - plenty have done it from there. However, Walsh (USA) with her Olympic Record in the semis, Huske (USA) and Kohler (GER) with impressive second 50’s, will make things difficult. A 29. coming home will most likely win this one.
Men’s 100 Breast. The focus for this event is clearly on Adam Peaty’s (GBR) ability to secure his 3rd consecutive 100m Breaststroke Olympic title. With that status comes the age question. But old breastrokers make good ones - the average age of this final is 26.1 yrs, just over 2 years older than the average age of all top male swimmers in 2022. Fink (USA) will be a serious threat, as will Kamminga (NED), Qin (CHN) and Martinenghi (ITA) - the splits of each of these athletes indicates that any challenge to Peaty will come all in the final 20m.
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