Payrolls rose 206,000 in June, as expected, but the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.1%. The forward-looking business sentiment surveys were widely downbeat, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate shows Q2 growth tracking only 1.5%. Get more insights in our weekly #marketminute: https://bit.ly/3XWBvZm
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Monday’s wild gyrations marked a global selloff that started to build last week after weak labor market data was released. Non-farm payrolls climbed by only 114K in July, while the unemployment rate climbed for a 4th month to an unexpected 4.3% suggesting a faster deterioration than previously expected. However, it was more than just the top line numbers that missed, it was the underlying data that showcased additional pressures. #Wealthmanagement #Wealthadvisor #Financialadvisor
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US payrolls climbed by 216,000 in December, the most in three months and beating almost all economist forecasts, though that was after the gains for November and October were revised lower by a combined 71,000. The unemployment rate held at 3.7%, against expectations for a rise to 3.8%.
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Its Time for the FED to CUT Nonfarm payrolls rose by 206,000 in June, surpassing the 200,000 forecast, while May's figure was revised downward to 218,000 from the initial 272,000 estimate. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.1%, reaching its highest level since October 2021, higher than the expected 4%. The latest data suggests a potential interest rate cut by the Fed, with CME Fed Watch indicating a 73.6% chance of a rate cut in September. #EconomicUpdate #JobMarket #FedWatch
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📉 August Payrolls Miss – Fed Rate Cut Ahead? 💸 The U.S. economy added 142,000 jobs in August, missing the forecast of 161,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%. This softer labor data strengthens the case for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at their meeting on September 17-18. Markets are now leaning towards a 50 bps cut. 📉 Key Data Highlights: • Jobs Added: 142,000 (below expectations) • Unemployment Rate: 4.2% • Wage Growth: +0.4% monthly, +3.8% yearly • Leading Sectors: Construction, Health Care 🏗🏥 • Lagging Sector: Manufacturing ⚙️ https://bit.ly/3VeFYUc #ONEBID #broker #news #investment #stocks
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Monday’s wild gyrations marked a global selloff that started to build last week after weak labor market data was released. Non-farm payrolls climbed by only 114K in July, while the unemployment rate climbed for a 4th month to an unexpected 4.3% suggesting a faster deterioration than previously expected. However, it was more than just the top line numbers that missed, it was the underlying data that showcased additional pressures.
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Masters in Finance (STEM) - Simon Business School | Focus: Quantitative Finance, Financial Markets, Entrepreneurial Finance.
The recent payrolls print is quite interesting. At first glance, the headline number might suggest that the labor market is still hot, with job growth exceeding expectations (275K vs 200K Expected). However, when we dig deeper, the picture becomes more nuanced, the household survey tells a different story, showing that employment tumbled by 184,000 in February. It's crucial to note the negative revisions to prior numbers and a rise in the unemployment rate (3.9%). December was revised down by 43,000 from +333,000 to +290,000, and January was revised down by 124,000 from +353,000 to +229,000. Additionally, recent developments such as the ECB lowering its inflation forecast and signaling a possible June rate cut, along with Fed swaps fully pricing in a quarter-point rate cut in June, further support the expectation of a mid-year rate cut by the Fed. #payrolljobs #bls #fed #bondmarket #economy
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The release of August US non-farm payrolls this afternoon painted a cautious picture of a tentative job market, but nothing to indicate we should worry about a recession. There were 142,000 jobs added, which was lower than the 165,000 expected, however unemployment was right in line with expectations at 4.2%. The bond market responded positively with yields moving between 5bps and 10 bps lower as show by the chart below (US yield curve right-now compared with the shape of the curve yesterday). Futures are now pricing in a 50% chance that we see a 50 basis points cut at the 18 September meeting and probably a further two 25 basis point cuts, one in each of the 07 November and 18 December meetings to close out the year, although there is an outside chance that we see a possible second cut of 50 basis points at one of those two remaining dates.
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Nonfarm payrolls in the US were slightly better than expected. However, several important points need to be noted: * Last month's figure was revised downwards from 272K to 218K. * There has been a consistent trend of downward revisions. * Unemployment also came in higher than expected. * There is a loss of strength on the growth side. Thus, bond yields and the DXY were lower after the data.
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The June Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.0%; any increase above 4% could trigger a US Dollar sell-off. If the Payrolls gain falls below 190,000, particularly around 170,000, it may lead to a decline in the Dollar. A strong report, with NFP gains exceeding 200,000 (e.g., 210,000 or more), could prompt a rally in the US Dollar. Regardless of the outcome, prepare for volatility this Payrolls Friday.
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Nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside in May, with gains of 272K. However, the headline number masks the fact that job growth continues to be concentrated in certain sectors - the Fed has every reason to maintain interest rates next week as it looks for further signs of sustained disinflation. Read my full statement on the May #JobsReport below.
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