Embassy of Germany to Canada’s Post

The geopolitical urgency created by Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to a significant shift in the Associated Trio EU accession. Ukraine and Moldova, previously seen as not ready for accession, were granted EU candidate status in 2022 and secured the opening of accession negotiations in 2023. The process was sped up due to the reform efforts of these countries and the EU's acknowledgment of the security imperative for their integration. Georgia lagged behind in 2022, but ultimately received the candidate status, [referencing the author], as a geopolitical signal to the overwhelmingly pro-European Georgian population. The dynamics of the accession process have changed, with the Eastern trio (Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia) progressing more rapidly than the Western Balkans. Nonetheless, the EU's approach to enlargement remains complex, with internal divisions and differing priorities affecting the process. The EU's credibility and commitment to enlargement are being tested, particularly in light of ongoing geopolitical challenges and the need for internal reform within the EU itself. #EaP #EU #Ukraine #Georgia #Moldova

How the US Can Beat the Kremlin in Moldova Peter Rough & Luke Coffey JUN 19, 2024 Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine was a seismic event for the Republic of Moldova. The war upended Chișinău’s long-held belief that constitutional neutrality would protect the country. Additionally, the invasion focused Brussels’s attention on Moldova, which the European Union has often regarded as an afterthought. Moscow’s war catalyzed Moldova’s politics and forced Chișinău and Brussels to make fundamental choices about their future relationship on an accelerated timetable. If Russia hadn’t launched its full-scale invasion, the EU would have probably not invited Moldova to open accession talks so quickly. Important elections in Moldova and a perilous situation in Ukraine ensure that 2024 will be a pivotal year on Chișinău’s path toward Western integration. United States and European policymakers should proactively shape an outcome that benefits both Moldovans and the Euro-Atlantic community.

📑 The #USelections are a pivotal moment for the #WesternBalkans, demanding increased leadership of Germany and the EU for the region's transatlantic integration! Very happy to share a brand new #DGAP Memo by Milan Nič and me, urging the German government to: 🗳  Show that it takes the Zeitenwende seriously, for example by building up the European pillar of NATO and strengthening its missions in the region. 🗳 Sustain the political drive for EU enlargement and pay close attention to developments pertaining to the Western Balkans in Brussels. 🗳 Build on the outcomes of the #BerlinProcess, creating a bridge between the common regional market and the EU single market. 🗳 Use synergies with the Commission’s #GrowthPlan for the Western Balkans as leverage over individual governments and leaders in the region. 🗳 Motivate the main political parties to pledge to continue to have a Special Representative of the Federal Government to the Western Balkans. 🗳 Seek new ways and formats for closer coordination with the UK. Read the full Memo here: https://lnkd.in/eYNaEDCv w/ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik e.V. | DGAP w/ Auswärtiges Amt (Federal Foreign Office) Germany

🌍 **ENLARGEMENT / Ukraine's accession negotiations with the EU officially open** 🇺🇦🇪🇺 On June 25 in Luxembourg, **the EU accession negotiations with Ukraine** were officially launched. As a reminder, Ukraine applied for EU membership in February 2022, a few days after the Russian invasion, and obtained candidate country status in June 2022. In December 2023, EU leaders decided that accession negotiations with the country could begin. 🔍 **Screening process** The **screening process** will now start and will last several months. Olivér Várhelyi, European Commissioner for Enlargement, said: "The process will allow us to identify the issues to be addressed during the negotiations and the areas where preparation needs to be intensified." ⚠️ **Preparation and Obstacles** This preparation time will also help to bypass the obstacle posed by the **Hungarian Presidency of the Council of the EU** (second half of 2024). Hungary has announced that "the question of opening chapters (of accession negotiations) will not be addressed at all" during its presidency. #Ukraine #EU #Accession #Negotiations #Europe #Enlargement #Politics #International

My latest op-ed for Balkan Insight and Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN) is out now. I argue that Orbán's Hungary is willing to endure Kosovo's diplomatic fury so as not to let down its long-standing ally in Belgrade—a reminder that recognising Kosovo does not necessarily mean supporting it at all costs. "Hungary’s well-established diplomatic ties with both Serbia and Kosovo have not been an obstacle to weaving a visibly triangular, though uneven relationship. While Serbia occupies a fully convergent position on Hungary’s priority list in the economic, security and ideological axes that grants short- and long-term benefits to both allies, Kosovo fails at this exercise. In the current geopolitical context, one might wonder how Hungary’s strategic axis between Belgrade and Pristina will play out in the future. However, the several instances of diplomatic revelations over the last 15 months have revealed omens that, in order for Serbia to rise, Orban might have to let Kosovo fall." https://lnkd.in/dA53j44S

West planning Gaza's future without Palestinian input — Lavrov The top Russian diplomat noted that the Palestinians themselves "are still disunited, dependent on various external sponsors" NIZHNY NOVGOROD, June 11/ The West is trying to figure out what to do with Gaza without the participation of the Palestinians themselves, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at a press conference following the BRICS meeting of foreign ministers. "Now, ignoring the Palestinians, they are already starting to think up what to do with Gaza next. Either to establish some kind of Arab protectorate there, or to pull in some kind of peacekeeping forces, or to artificially declare that it will be a territory ruled by the Palestinian national administration. These are all initiatives imposed by external players," the top diplomat said. Lavrov noted that the Palestinians themselves "are still disunited, dependent on various external sponsors." He brought back to mind the inter-Palestinian meeting that took place in Moscow in late January and early February. It was attended by all Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Fatah. "The meeting ended, for the first time, with the adoption of a joint statement in which, also for the first time, all, including Hamas, expressed their willingness to unite the Palestinian ranks based on the Palestine Liberation Organization platform. This was achieved for the first time ever," he stated. "The purpose of our initiatives to restore Palestinian unity is explained by the fact that only a united Palestine can be a partner in negotiations that will aim to achieve the maximum necessary result. As long as the Palestinians are disunited, this will hardly work out," Lavrov said. He emphasized that the main idea is to "get together all external sponsors, all countries that in one way or another influence, finance and help the various Palestinian factions, and agree that there should be no disagreement among these external players and that they, as one, call on the Palestinians not to play on the existing nuances in the position of external players, to speak with one voice in the negotiations, including seeking their legitimate rights in the United Nations." Lavrov assured that Russia remains ready to do this work, although at the moment all efforts are invested into ending the tragedy. "Once this happens, the most important component of our long-term policy on that front will be to support the movement to see a Palestinian state established in full compliance with UN resolutions," the top diplomat summed up. #business #finance #financialservices

Today, the Friends of Armenia Network launches a major new report on EU-Armenia relations. Armenia is a democracy in an incredibly difficult geopolitical neighbourhood. Armenia’s government has made a courageous decision to diversify Armenia’s foreign policy and move towards the West. The world’s democracies—and the European Union, in particular—must act to support Armenia in this pivot.   This support has become even more important following Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive against the ethnic-Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh and the continued threat posed by Azeri forces. Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine has shown that the European Union must do far more to stand up for democracies in its direct neighbourhood.   Europe has an opportunity to support a stable democracy and lasting peace in the South Caucasus. Today’s report outlines the tangible steps that can and should be taken, ultimately leading to Armenia joining the European Union.   Read the full report - https://lnkd.in/gmqM2XBM

Serbia's (anti) model and Ukraine's security in view of the 2030 EU accession horizon #bne #bneEditorsPicks #Ukraine #Serbia #Vucic The integration of the Eastern Partnership candidates, led by Ukraine, represents a geopolitical and security objective, not just a mechanical reasoning of the EU's enlargement policy. This approach may point to some incipient and sectoral differences, of conceptual and practical nature, in the way the EU applies the logic of accession to the Western Balkan candidate countries and those of the Eastern Partnership. The EU strategy for enlargement does not establish a formal geographical division between the Eastern Partnership and the candidates from the Western Balkans, including Turkey. While the view persists that the new candidates from the East have energised the process, those from the Western Balkans are stuck in slow and nebulous accession negotiations, compromised by EU reservations on the one hand and by the stagnation of transformation processes at local level on the other. The regime of Alecsandar Vučić in Serbia and the pro-Serbian region of Bosnia and Herzegovina feed an (anti)model of European integration at the subregional level. Inspired by the balancing act used by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the Serbian leader is resorting to tactics of cooperation and confrontation (“hedging”) to extract an attitude of tolerance from Brussels, inhibiting its side of conditionality when it comes to accessing pre-accession funds.

Much is known about how Viktor Orbán sees the world, but less is known about how the Hungarian public views foreign policy. This gap is filled by our new research, Policy Solutions’s foreign policy survey 'The World Through Hungarian Eyes - Foreign Policy Attitudes in Hungary in 2024'. Read the English summary here: https://lnkd.in/d6Y5nvYv Key findings:  📍Although a majority of Hungarians believe that the country’s place is in the West, support for Western orientation has declined among the supporters of Fidesz. 📍Hungarians view Austria as our country’s most important partner, with Ukraine ranking last on the list in 2024.  📍In 2024, Hungarians are more likely to view Ukraine as a threat than Russia.  📍25 years after accession: three-quarters of voters support Hungary’s NATO membership. The vast majority of Hungarians agree with Sweden’s NATO accession and said that Hungary must comply with the NATO security guarantees.  📍Support for Ukraine: at this point, only humanitarian assistance enjoys broad public support, a majority of Hungarians oppose both financial and military aid.  📍The perceived threat of war has declined in Hungarian society. The share of respondents who believe that the EU sanctions against Russia have backfired is just as high as the share of those who think that the sanctions have hurt both sides equally. Fidesz supporters are more likely to anticipate further Russian military breakthroughs, while opposition voters expect the frontlines to be frozen.  📍Although there was a slight deterioration in Hungarians’ perceptions of the US, they still view it as a military and political superpower.  📍Hungarians are more likely to perceive China as a great power, but many believe it is aggressive and repressive.  📍Israel-Palestine conflict: Hungarians believe the Israeli counterstrikes are justified but disproportionate.  📍Vladimir Putin, Pope Francis, and Donald Trump are the most prominent global public figures, but Ursula von der Leyen’s name recognition has increased the most since last year. Pope Francis is the most popular global public figure, while Zelensky has become just as unpopular as Putin. #NATO #RussiaUkraineWar #China #USA #Hungary #foreignpolicy #publicopinion #publicattitudes