Global Taiwan Institute’s Post

This week in Washington D.C., the United States hosts 32 democracies across Europe and North America to celebrate the 75th anniversary of NATO, the world’s most successful alliance founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. Allies are expected to affirm their unwavering support for Ukraine and to discuss cooperation on a strong defense industrial base that will bolster security across the Atlantic. The National Association of Manufacturers - NAM has been an active and vocal supporter of Ukraine’s fight to defend democracy. In 2022 the NAM Board of Directors voted unanimously in support of a resolution denouncing the invasion and supporting the people of Ukraine. Last year, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke to the NAM Board of Directors in an address to the American business community, where he underscored that “democracy is stronger than tyranny” and reminded us of the importance of standing firm for our shared values. To preserve economic security and stability, we must prepare for the future. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, U.S. defense manufacturers surged production of the military equipment that Ukrainians desperately needed to defend their nation. The scale of military resources needed and the speed at which they were produced underscores the need for a bold competitiveness agenda that ensures a strong and resilient defense industrial base in the years ahead. This will require Congress and the administration to bolster supply chains, expand our workforce, advance pro-growth tax reforms and streamline burdensome regulations. Upon signing the NATO treaty in 1949, President Harry Truman shared his vision for the alliance: "By this treaty, we are not only seeking to establish freedom from aggression and from the use of force in the North Atlantic community, but we are also actively striving to promote and preserve peace throughout the world." Manufacturers in America have been, and always will be, the Arsenal of Democracy. We will continue to support an alliance working to increase prosperity, defend against tyranny and bring greater peace and security to the world. You can read the NAM Board of Directors resolution in support of the Ukrainian people here: https://lnkd.in/eXkSrxhu #NATOSummit

With the release of a new 182-page report by the Department of Defense, it has become clear that China is conducting its largest military build-up since that of 1930s Nazi Germany. Prior to the report, some experts said China's military build-up in recent years has been fueled largely by a lack of respect for the Biden administration. Col. Grant Newsham, USMC-Ret., who once served as the first Marine liaison officer to the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force, agreed. In his 2023 book "When China Attacks: A Warning to America," Newsham documents Communist China's ongoing covert war against the United States and its allies. Speaking to WorldNetDaily, the Senior Fellow with the Center for Security Policy explained that "China's military build-up has been going on for over 30 years – regardless of who has been in the White House – Democrat or Republican." In addition, over the last 20 years, the People's Liberation Army, or PLA – the Chinese Communist Party's military wing – has also strengthened its capabilities. According to Newsham, the CCP is increasingly emboldened by American weakness and perceived decline. To that end, he told WorldNetDaily, "The Chinese communists certainly did not fear the Biden administration," adding, "There was nobody on 'Team Biden' handling foreign, military, economic policies – or China matters in general – that scared Beijing." However, in a few areas, such as maintaining former President Donald Trump's tariffs and imposing additional sanctions and trade restrictions on the People's Republic of China, Newsham said, "The Biden administration did some things that irked the PRC." Nonetheless, he admitted, the Chinese continue to telegraph that "they had little to fear from the Biden administration." On the other hand, Newsham argued, "The first Trump administration was the first one in my lifetime that actually frightened Beijing." However, he conceded, "the PRC did not slow down its military build-up." For Beijing, he added, the People's Liberation Army and national military power remain "priority number one." For this reason, he said, "don't expect the PRC to pull back on its military build-up just because Donald Trump will soon be back in office." According to Newsham, "The CCP has reached a point a decade ago where its military is a serious threat to the U.S. and the U.S. military." https://lnkd.in/dGuKj9xp

Spoke to the Independent for this story on the potential implications of Trump's second presidency for Taiwan. Trump's second presidency could mean chaos for Taiwan & see Taiwan treated as a bargaining chip for negotiations with China. The US was exploring ways to defend Taiwan in case of an unprovoked invasion under the Biden administration. Trump's abrasive and unpredictable behaviour could disrupt the assurance that the Biden administration had been able to provide to countries concerned about the China threat. This is undoubtedly going to result in an unpredictable US’ Taiwan policy. However, bipartisan support for Taiwan in the US could offer some consolation. Yet, this alone is not sufficient. It signals Taiwan to focus on building capabilities, achieving self-sufficiency, and seeking additional partners beyond the US. Taiwan is accustomed to a Trump presidency and it may find embracing change as its best strategy. This could prompt Taiwan further to diversify both its defence relations & foreign policy. Placing all its eggs in one basket might not be prudent for Taiwan anymore, and a Trump administration could highlight this realisation even more. https://lnkd.in/gYQ_Q3K7

[Good analysis. Ignore now - pay a far greater cost later.] … “The question is not whether Russia will pose a threat to the United States and its allies but how to assess the magnitude of the danger and the effort required to contain it. China will remain the United States’ primary competitor. But even with much of its attention called to Asia, Washington cannot ignore a recalcitrant and revanchist adversary in Europe, especially not one that will pose a direct military threat to NATO members. The Russian problem is also a global one. Putin’s willingness to invade a neighbor, assault democratic societies, and generally violate accepted norms—and his seeming ability to get away with it—paves the way for others to do the same.The Kremlin’s provision of military equipment and know-how to current and aspiring U.S. adversaries will amplify these threats, multiplying the challenges that Washington will face from China, Iran, North Korea, and any other country that Russia backs. The United States and Europe, therefore, must invest in resisting Russia now or pay a far greater cost later. The incoming Trump administration, in particular, does not have the luxury of shoving Russia down its list of policy priorities. If Putin sees Washington doing so, he will grow only more brazen and ambitious in his efforts to weaken the United States and its allies, both directly and through the axis of upheaval that Russia supports. To prevent that outcome, Washington and its allies must help Ukraine strengthen its position ahead of negotiations to end the current war. The United States is right to prioritize China, but in order to effectively compete with Beijing, it first needs to set European security on the right path. Washington must remain the primary enabler of that security for now, while making sure that Europe ramps up the investments required to better handle its own defense in the years ahead. By taking the steps necessary to counter Russia today, the United States and Europe can ensure that the threat they face tomorrow will be a manageable one.” …

What China wants from Trump: Trump’s pick for national security adviser, Rep. Mike Waltz, told CNBC in November that the team would engage with China on its purchases of Iranian oil. Squeezing the flow of money into Iran will be key to addressing many conflicts, including in the Middle East and Ukraine, Waltz said. What would Beijing’s asking price for a deal be? Less arms sales to Taiwan? Less senior visits? Or could it be so subtle that most people don’t notice— like the U.S. switching from “not supporting” Taiwan independence” to “opposing” independence. Rush Doshi, one of the architects of Biden’s China strategy, says the U.S. must avoid trading “stark, irreversible concessions” like the status of Taiwan for “tactical, reversible concessions” such as oil trade with Iran. Similarly, relaxing export controls or sanctions coordinated with allies and partners could damage America’s credibility and erode trust in the region, he said. “If we give the perception we want a G2 [Group of Two] with China, it’s all over with our allies and partners,” Doshi said. “They’ll fear we will sell them out.”

Delighted to have co-authored this piece for The National Interest on the US-UK #SpecialRelationship, with *Dan Negrea* (Atlantic Council & ex-State Dept. under Mike Pompeo) and *Duke Buchan* (Republican National Committee's Finance Chair). Among other things, we call for getting the long-discussed US-UK Free Trade Agreement done, and for Britain to increase its defence spending to 3% of GDP. https://lnkd.in/dg6Cdh52

using Weapon needs as a political tool Weapon exports can serve as a potent instrument of political obligation, enabling nations to exercise influence and secure strategic alliances on the global stage. By supplying arms to allied countries, a nation can strengthen its geopolitical standing and ensure the alignment of military capabilities and doctrines. This strategic distribution of weaponry fosters dependency and commitment, as recipient nations often find themselves reliant on continued support and maintenance from the exporting country. Furthermore, weapon exports can be leveraged to gain political concessions and foster stability in regions of interest. The export of advanced military technology is frequently accompanied by training programs, intelligence sharing, and joint exercises, deepening the bilateral ties between the exporting and recipient nations. These comprehensive defense partnerships can lead to greater cooperation on international issues, aligning policies and actions in various global forums. Additionally, weapon exports can act as a deterrent against common adversaries. By equipping allies with cutting-edge defense systems, the exporting nation can enhance the security of a region, projecting power indirectly and promoting peace through strength. This approach also helps in spreading the exporting country's technological standards and operational doctrines, creating a more cohesive and predictable defense landscape. Moreover, the economic benefits derived from weapon exports cannot be overlooked. The defense industry in the exporting country thrives, creating jobs and stimulating technological advancements. These economic incentives further solidify the commitment to maintaining and expanding defense relationships. In conclusion, weapon exports, when used judiciously, can serve as a formidable tool for political obligation, enhancing a nation's influence, fostering stability, and driving economic growth.

New Post: How many times have you met PM Modi and President Trump, where can I meet in February - https://lnkd.in/evvt9sXG New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi may meet with US President Donald Trump next month. It will be either in France or in America. Both countries have started preparing for this meeting. These leaders of two great democracy of the world are known because of their relations. This meeting of the two leaders will take place at a time when Trump has warned to impose tariffs on countries involved in BRICS including India. Earlier, both leaders have met seven times. But this will be the first meeting of the two leaders after Trump became President for the second time. Let us see when the two leaders have met and during this time what issues they have discussed.This meeting of PM Modi may take place in Paris, France. President Trump may attend the conference to be organized by the President of France on Artificial Intelligence. PM Modi is also likely to join it. If Trump does not go to this conference, then the two leaders will meet in America. First meetingDonald Trump first became President on 20 January 2017. He first met Prime Minister Modi on 26 June 2017. During this time, PM Modi traveled to Washington for bilateral talks. During this time, talks focused on defense cooperation, business and anti -terrorism fight. During this time, President Trump embraced PM Modi in a press conference organized. PM Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump first met on 26 June 2017.Second meetingThe second meeting of Narendra Modi and Donald Trump took place on 30 November 2018 at the G20 summit held at Buenos Aires in Argentina. During this, Modi participated in a tripartite talks with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Trump. During this time, these leaders discussed business as well as Indo-Pacific security and anti-terrorism fight.Third meeting The third meeting of these two leaders of the world's two great democracy took place on 28 June 2019 at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. During this time, Modi, Abe and Trump had a tripartite talks. At the same time, there was a discussion about Indo-US trade and 5G technology in the bilateral meeting of Modi and Trump. Fourth meetingThe fourth meeting of the Indian Prime Minister and the US President took place on 26 August 2019 at the G-7 conference held in France. During this, PM Modi and President Trump discussed the situation arising after the abolition of Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir. During this, Trump offered to mediate the matter. But PM Modi refused to include a third party, stating this bilateral case. He said that this is only a case between India and Pakistan. US President Donald Trump visited India in February 2020

ANALYSIS: Taiwan is expected to face heavy pressure to strengthen its defense and decouple supply chains from neighbouring China after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election this week. How Trump will engage with Taiwan is one of the most consequential questions over his second presidency. The U.S. is by far Taipei’s most important political and security partner, and White House policy will have a direct bearing on Taiwan’s ability to withstand the Chinese Communist Party’s threats to its sovereignty. With insights from Minister Peng Chi-ming, Chieh-Ting Yeh, Ivan Kanapathy, Raymond Chen-En Sung, Courtney Donovan Smith, Nick Marro and senior government sources and diplomats in Taipei.