This is what dealer group consolidation looks like in terms of market share. Five years ago, the combined top 150 captured 20% of that year’s new vehicle sales. These were the halcyon days of 17 million SAAR. Today, the pie is smaller and the top 150 take 24%.
The chart simply accumulates unit sales from #1 Lithia on down. Following the yellow curve from left to right, you can see the Big Six grab around 8% and then the rest gradually up to 24%. If you’re a quant person, you know that the underlying distribution follows a power law, and this is its integral.
Anyone, however, can reckon that dealer group sales follow something like the “80-20 rule,” and they’re growing stronger by the year. This is a trend that’s likely to continue and, yes, it’s amenable to predictive modeling.
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