Graham Collins’ Post

Q4 GDP growth: 3.3%! Explore the intricacies of sector-wise contributions, highlighting the role of household consumption and the strategic implications for investors in our #marketminute. https://bit.ly/3HElhuu

Inside the very good GDP report

First-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Unchanged. On February 8, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024 is 3.4 percent, unchanged from February 7 after rounding. | Use link in bio to access content.

While we talk about national GDP all the time, state GDPs never really come up. So here's a list of the 10 states with the lowest GDP growth.

While we talk about national GDP all the time, state GDPs never really come up. So here's a list of the 10 states with the lowest GDP growth.

The State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the performance of the national economy in 2023. According to preliminary calculations, the annual GDP was 126,058.2 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2% over the previous year. Looking at quarters, GDP increased by 4.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, 6.3% in the second quarter, 4.9% in the third quarter, and 5.2% in the fourth quarter. From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, GDP increased by 1.0% in the fourth quarter.

Good thread here highlighting some of the limitations of the GDP reports we all see and follow. Like the LEI (my last post), understanding some of the subtleties of these different data points helps us decipher which ones we really want to hang our hat on.

GDP estimates for each year undergo six revisions over three years. My op-ed in The Economic Times proposes how to make the process simpler, more precise & agile. https://lnkd.in/gP8XGV3t

EconomyNow comes out with a forecast for Q1 real GDP growth of 4.2%. Granted, it will change/adjust as data becomes available over the quarter but that is a strong first look.

On August 30, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent, up from 2.0 percent on August 26.