Gustavo Ribeiro’s Post

Although a hung parliament was widely expected in the French elections, a surprise win by the left-wing coalition will cause market concerns ahead of any coalition talks. Unexpectedly, the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) won more seats than any other party with 182 seats, where it was widely projected that Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) would fall short of a majority, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist group came in second with 163 seats and the RN alliance securing 143 seats. There would have been far more market instability if we had seen an RN victory, which was probably the cause of the euro trading lower last week. Further widening of risk is anticipated as a hung parliament will struggle to deliver any fiscal consolidation, and there are still some risks related to a potential left-wing government. Although the euro has gained some ground following the higher-than-expected German Trade Balance, the absence of market-moving eurozone data this week and a quiet period for the ECB ahead of its 18 July meeting will keep the euro on the back foot, with all eyes on French political developments.

SAVE THE DATE: THURSDAY 27TH JUNE AT 2PM LONODN TIME FREE MASTERCLASS ON HOW TO TRADE A UK ELECTION. Have you got caught short on the recent VOL with Macron and Bund/OAT spreads widening? What next for EURxxx? Well if you want to know more AND put this skill into the BIG one with the UK General Election come and join me for this exclusive FREE MAsterclass I'll be teaching you everything you need to 1. Keep your risk robust. 2. Pounce on opportunities with alpha. 3. Keep clarity and focus by avoiding the noise. See you ringside. This will not happen again in my lifetime. https://lnkd.in/eD4ibAMk

What the UK general election manifestos say on international trade Ahead of the UK general election on 4 July, the country's political parties have set out what they aspire to deliver if chosen to form the next government – and businesses across the country are hoping to see policies that will support growth. In their pre-election manifestos, the two largest political parties in the UK have plenty to say on trade. Here's a brief summary of the key pledges from both the Conservatives and Labour as they outline their visions for the country's future. https://lnkd.in/eRBj_e-M

The recent EU Parliament elections changed the political landscape with big economic implications. The EPP's victory will steer policies towards industry and rural areas, while far-right gains push policies to the right, affecting trade and regulation. Von der Leyen's re-election is uncertain and could disrupt current economic policies. Green Party losses may slow down ecological reforms, and Renew Europe's decline reduces their influence on economic changes. These shifts show the complex mix between politics and economics in the EU.

Read my comments about the potential impacts of the French election on CETA ratification in today's Globe and Mail. https://lnkd.in/gfXcaEBU

European Elections Results and Why it Matters? The shift to right could have serious consequences on the European Economy: 👉 Trade: Free trade agreements and major alignments to open up the economy globally 👉 Climate - Will Europe achieve the 2030 agreements ♻️ only the future will tell 👉 Defense - Hopefully the elections will not have any swift impact and Europe will keep acting as one to protect democracy Interesting read in the news today after the final results have been published. What is your take? #economy #Europe #thefutureoftrade

Geo-political events can have an impact in your investment portfolio. Register for our upcoming webinar to discuss changes in Europe and beyond.

No magic dwells in this beginning2q https://ow.ly/r5Ra50QNGR2 The euro put in a somewhat weaker performance one day after the European parliament elections, with local equity markets following suit. After an EU parliament election that turned out more of less as expected, the snap elections in France are a genuine surprise. While the economic environment has lost some of its magic, disinflation has come to a standstill in recent months. Monetary policymakers have no easy task ahead of them. While technical indicators point to a relatively calm picture, there are plenty of reasons for greater volatility in view of divergent monetary policy and heightened uncertainty in Europe