Read my piece on rt.com about the Wayanad landslide. It has explained if a landslide can be predicted, what could be done for the future, and the need for a land use plan.
“The warning system clearly says there is no system to predict a landslide, although there are means to find out landslide susceptibility or vulnerable areas,” Dr. KG Thara, former head of the State Institute for Land and Disaster Management Center, told RT, thereby rubbishing Amit Shah’s claim.
“As per the Disaster Management Act (2005), only the warning of central designated agencies can be taken into account, not those of private agencies unless approved,” she said. “The IMD gave an orange alert which meant be prepared. The day after the landslide the IMD scaled the alert up to red (which indicates heavy to extremely heavy rains of over 20 cm in 24 hours). The IMD relies on rainfall.”
“Factors that cause landslides include soil formation and rock types in a region,” Dr V Ambili of the Geological Survey of India (GSI) told RT. “In addition, the season also matters. Heavy rainfall in a short time-span makes a region saturated, and 99.9% of landslides in Kerala are accelerated by such intense rain.”
“It is not about predicting that a landslide will happen at a particular location. We can warn about the possibility of a landslide as it depends on the intensity of the rainfall. A landslide may not happen in torrential rains if there is an hour gap in between, because water would flow out and prevent saturation. This is the same as predicting rain: we can’t predict but we warn that it may happen,” she said.
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