Harvard's Growth Lab’s Post

U.S. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS, March 2024 The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.3 percent in March 2024 to 102.4, after increasing by 0.2 percent in February. #usconomicindicatorsmarch2024

what is The Conference Board Leading Economic Index? The Conference Board Leading Economic Index is an American economic leading indicator intended to forecast future economic activity. It is calculated by The Conference Board, a non-governmental organization, which determines the value of the index from the values of ten key variables. These variables have historically turned downward before a recession and upward before an expansion. This is about change of The Conference Board Leading Of Economic Index for the U.S. in October. https://lnkd.in/gFiiFfv6

#𝗚𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗳𝘁𝘀𝗱𝗶𝗮𝗴𝗻𝗼𝘀𝗲 - 𝗦𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰: "Cyclical and structural factors are overlapping in the sluggish macroeconomic development. Although a recovery is likely to set in from the spring, the overall momentum will not be too strong," says Stefan Kooths, Head of Forecasting Kiel Institute for the World Economy, referring to the significant revision in the spring report of the Joint Economic Forecast. According to Germany’s five leading economic research institutes, the country’s economy shows cyclical and structural weaknesses. 𝗜𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝘀𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁, 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗚𝗗𝗣 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝟬.𝟭 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁. In the recent fall report, the figure was still 1.3 percent. Expectations for the coming year are almost unchanged at 1.4 percent (previously 1.5 percent). However, the level of economic activity will then be over 30 billion euros lower due to the current weak phase. More Details 👉 https://lnkd.in/ewUzg2d2 DIW Berlin - German Institute for Economic Research ifo Institute – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research IWH – Halle Institute for Economic Research – Member of the Leibniz Association RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research

Latest Synopsis of ATLANTA GDPNOW Report (as of January 29, 2024, 4:14 PM EST): Current Estimate: The first estimate for Q1 2024 GDP growth is 3.0%, released on January 26. Revisions: This is higher than the final GDPNow estimate for Q4 2023 (2.4%), which itself was 0.9 percentage points above the BEA's initial estimate. Outlook: The model has been consistently revised upwards throughout Q1, suggesting continued strong economic growth. General Trend over the Last 3 Months: Upward revisions: The GDPNow model has consistently revised its Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 estimates upwards,pointing to stronger-than-expected economic performance. Revisions driven by incoming data: These revisions reflect positive new data on personal consumption,residential investment, and government spending. Overall optimism: The trend suggests robust economic growth in the recent past and potentially continuing into Q1 2024. Here are some additional details to consider: The GDPNow model is constantly being updated with new data, so the current estimate may change in the coming weeks. The model is subject to statistical error, so its forecasts should be interpreted with caution. It's important to monitor other economic indicators to get a more complete picture of the economy. Feel free to ask if you have any further questions about the ATLANTA GDPNOW report or the current economic trends!

Did You Know? World economics is a fascinating topic with an endless number of statistics, variables, and trends influencing global business and markets. These impacts trickle all the way down from world economies to hyper local businesses. By the numbers, here are facts you may find interesting on a global scale. GDP (Gross Domestic Product) There are 18 countries in the world with a Nominal GDP of over $1T USD. The United States is the largest ($28.78T) and the Netherlands is the smallest ($1.01T). You can find the full list on https://hubs.la/Q02Kf3330 With a land area of 16,192 square miles, the Netherlands has the highest GDP per square mile on the list at $62.38 million USD. Quite an efficient use of space! With a population of roughly 331,000,000, the United States has the highest GDP per capita on the list at a staggering $86,930! While global brands hold significant marketshare in these staggeringly large figures, small business have always been and will continue to be the birthplace for invention and innovative ideas that push the bounds of global economic growth. As technology continues to redefine the capabilities of modern solutions, what other countries do you think can join the #trilliondollarclub in the next 10 years? #economics #funfacts

Ned Davis Research | U.S. Economic Cycle Update Each quarter, NDR Senior U.S. Economist Veneta Dimitrova provides an update on the overall U.S. economy as well as 12 economic sub-cycles. In the latest edition, she noted that while real GDP growth accelerated in Q3, sub-cycle trends point to continued slowing in business activity. For access to additional detail on each sub-cycle and related content from the NDR team, investment professionals may request a trial on the NDR homepage.  #macroeconomics #economicoutlook #inflation

My latest book 'On the Inaccuracies of Economic Observations' shows that measurement error in economics is substantial to the tune of 10 to 20%. We actually do not know is the Great Recession was a recession. Many case studies for inflation, GDP, trade, (un)employment, covid statistics. Contrary to the mainstream view statistical problems are also very large in advanced economies. https://lnkd.in/g-nYkfAg

"The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.6 percent in April 2024 to 101.8 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.3 percent in March. Over the six-month period between October 2023 and April 2024, the LEI contracted by 1.9 percent—a smaller decrease than its 3.5 percent decline over the previous six months." #economics #economy #finance #investing #business #money #education https://lnkd.in/gf9hwPVe

The best way to answer this question is what an economy of a country should depend on, rather than does today.

Well, as global economic activity per nation is also measured more precisely in comparative terms, interesting correlations and surprising individual cases emerge that require closer examination. These circumstances in particular can be found in a recent article in the business journal 'The Economist': . https://lnkd.in/eKakmDEP