Hawkhill Homes’ Post

Apollo: This Is a Soft Landing Looking at the incoming data, the facts are the following: 1. The #unemployment rate declined in August, and looking at the establishment survey and the household survey, it is difficult to see strong signs of a slowdown in job creation. 2. #Wage growth accelerated to 3.8% in August and wage growth remains sticky well above pre-pandemic levels. 3. Daily data for debit card transactions shows that consumer #spending has been accelerating in recent weeks, driven by spending on clothing, food services and drinking places, sporting goods, and motor vehicle and parts dealers. 4. Weekly data for #retail sales went up last week and remains solid. 5. #Jobless claims have declined for several weeks. 6. Continuing claims have declined for several weeks. 7. #Default rates and weekly #bankruptcy filings are trending down. 8. The Fed’s weekly GDP model suggests GDP is 2.4% and the Atlanta Fed GDP Now says GDP this quarter will be 2.1%. 9. Weekly data for S&P 500 forward profit margins shows that profit margins are near all-time high levels. 10. The stock price of staffing firms is rebounding, which suggests that we could get a rebound in job #openings. The bottom line is that the US #economy is not in a #recession, and there are no signs of a recession on the horizon. #investing #markets #macroeconomics

The recent slowdown in hiring and job openings is notable. Massive adjustments in labor numbers finally begins to clear up what was once a cloudy labor and employment picture. The economy is not beginning to cool, it has been cooling for longer than we thought. Consumer spending, still high, is beginning to show signs of weakening. The Fed comes in with an aggressive 50bps rate cut, but it’s too little too late. That cut does little to offer any real relief to the average consumer. The Fed is signaling that it still wants a little more pain from the economy, but is beginning it’s process of working rates down slowly, which will bring “eventual” relief, just not significant relief today. #USEconomy #BusinessTrends #EconomicGrowth #LaborMarket

Consensus expected today's job report to show an uptick in unemployment and a slowdown in hiring. Instead, the US economy evidently adds +353k jobs and the UR holds steady at a historically low 3.7%. This has to be a truly historic US labor market in terms of resilience, but I still have never heard of an indefinitely resilient labor market. Monetary policy lag varies greatly and as a rule of thumb, it typically takes around two years from the first hike for the labor market to start feeling some pain. The first hike was in March 2022, so we're just about there. I suspect this is one of the last jobs reports we'll be seeing for some time that's this positive. In the meantime, consumers fight to survive. The average credit card issued by commercial banks is at an ATH 22.75%. The great news is the consumer is employed and so long as that's the case, the US economy will stay out of recession. Unfortunately my sense is we will see that resilience start to show signs of giving out in the coming months, before we see a full blown collapse in labor. Time will tell. Happy Friday! OVOM Research, TradingView #Research #Economy #Markets #Finance #Macro #InterestRates #Consumer

I am seeing much discussion that bumper US jobs growth data on Friday now means a lower likelihood of a US recession. In reality, there was never that much chance of a recession, and instead, too many commentators and analysts were overreacting to a couple of data points from one variable. Indeed, they are now over-reacting again to one piece of good news rather than learning the lesson! It is important to remember that economic data tends to be volatile, can be revised, and only ever shows one piece of the puzzle. The bigger picture for the US economy in our (Cebr) minds was always that it seems to be in 'soft landing' mode as the lagged effects of tighter monetary policy continue to feed through, which should ease now that rate cuts have started in earnest. https://lnkd.in/ez3t4Vks

𝐓𝐡𝐮𝐫𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞: 𝐆𝐃𝐏 𝐇𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐬 𝐒𝐭𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐲 𝐚𝐭 𝟑%, 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐝𝐬 𝐅𝐚𝐥𝐥, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐉𝐨𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐂𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐦𝐬 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐋𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐫 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐇𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐡 Today brings some important economic updates that give us a clearer picture of where the U.S. economy is heading as we close out the third quarter. 👉 𝐆𝐃𝐏 𝐇𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐬 𝐚𝐭 𝟑%: The final estimate for second-quarter GDP growth came in at 3.0%, matching the previous estimate and showing steady economic expansion. This indicates a solid pace of growth, driven by consumer spending and federal government investments. While there were some minor revisions in areas like nonresidential investment and exports, the overall economic outlook for the second quarter remains strong. 👉 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐝𝐬 𝐎𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬: August durable goods orders were virtually unchanged, rising by only $0.1 billion to $289.7 billion, following a 9.9% surge in July. Excluding transportation, orders rose by 0.5%, while defense orders fell 0.2%. Electrical equipment, appliances, and components saw a 1.9% increase, helping to drive overall gains. 👉 𝐉𝐨𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐂𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐦𝐬 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐭 𝟐𝟏𝟖,𝟎𝟎𝟎: Initial jobless claims for the week came in at 218,000, roughly in line with expectations. This indicates that the labor market is still holding steady despite concerns about economic slowdown. It’s important to keep an eye on these numbers going forward, as any major increase could suggest a weakening job market. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐃𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧?: These reports highlight the balancing act the Fed faces. With steady GDP growth and durable goods holding firm, the economy shows resilience. However, the drop in jobless claims reflects a tight labor market, which could continue to push wages higher. The Fed may take a "wait and see" approach, needing more data to confirm if inflation is truly under control before making further rate cuts. 𝐋𝐨𝐨𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐀𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝: Tomorrow, we’ll see the release of the PCE Inflation Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, along with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. Both of these will be key in assessing consumer confidence and price stability as we move forward. #FinancialPlanning #GDP #DurableGoods #JoblessClaims #Inflation #Economy

At the midpoint of 2024, the U.S. #economy presents a mixed but generally positive picture. Despite persistent inflation and slower-than-expected rate cuts, conditions remain favorable for both workers and investors. Key updates from Axios include: - The unemployment rate rose to 4% in May, from 3.7% in December 2023. - Three-month average job growth also increased, to 249,000 in 2024 from 212,000 in the final months of 2023. - The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, rose at a 3.3% annual rate in the first five months of 2024, from 2.2% over the final five months of 2023. In this evolving landscape, it's crucial for #business owners to consult with advisors to interpret these economic signals and plan effectively. Read below and reach out if you’d like to discuss how economic factors may impact your business. I can connect you with a Frost advisor for personalized insights. Member FDIC. #BusinessBanking #EconomicInsights #BusinessOwner

At the midpoint of 2024, the U.S. #economy presents a mixed but generally positive picture. Despite persistent inflation and slower-than-expected rate cuts, conditions remain favorable for both workers and investors. Key updates from Axios include: - The unemployment rate rose to 4% in May, from 3.7% in December 2023. - Three-month average job growth also increased, to 249,000 in 2024 from 212,000 in the final months of 2023. - The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, rose at a 3.3% annual rate in the first five months of 2024, from 2.2% over the final five months of 2023. In this evolving landscape, it's crucial for #business owners to consult with advisors to interpret these economic signals and plan effectively. Read below and reach out if you’d like to discuss how economic factors may impact your business. I can connect you with a Frost advisor for personalized insights. Member FDIC. #BusinessBanking #EconomicInsights #BusinessOwner

At the midpoint of 2024, the U.S. #economy presents a mixed but generally positive picture. Despite persistent inflation and slower-than-expected rate cuts, conditions remain favorable for both workers and investors. Key updates from Axios include: - The unemployment rate rose to 4% in May, from 3.7% in December 2023. - Three-month average job growth also increased, to 249,000 in 2024 from 212,000 in the final months of 2023. - The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, rose at a 3.3% annual rate in the first five months of 2024, from 2.2% over the final five months of 2023. In this evolving landscape, it's crucial for #business owners to consult with advisors to interpret these economic signals and plan effectively. Read below and reach out if you’d like to discuss how economic factors may impact your business. I can connect you with a Frost advisor for personalized insights. Member FDIC. #BusinessBanking #EconomicInsights #BusinessOwner

At the midpoint of 2024, the U.S. #economy presents a mixed but generally positive picture. Despite persistent inflation and slower-than-expected rate cuts, conditions remain favorable for both workers and investors. Key updates from Axios include: - The unemployment rate rose to 4% in May, from 3.7% in December 2023. - Three-month average job growth also increased, to 249,000 in 2024 from 212,000 in the final months of 2023. - The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, rose at a 3.3% annual rate in the first five months of 2024, from 2.2% over the final five months of 2023. In this evolving landscape, it's crucial for #business owners to consult with advisors to interpret these economic signals and plan effectively. Read below and reach out if you’d like to discuss how economic factors may impact your business. I can connect you with a Frost advisor for personalized insights. Member FDIC. #BusinessBanking #EconomicInsights #BusinessOwner

At the midpoint of 2024, the U.S. #economy presents a mixed but generally positive picture. Despite persistent inflation and slower-than-expected rate cuts, conditions remain favorable for both workers and investors. Key updates from Axios include: - The unemployment rate rose to 4% in May, from 3.7% in December 2023. - Three-month average job growth also increased, to 249,000 in 2024 from 212,000 in the final months of 2023. - The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, rose at a 3.3% annual rate in the first five months of 2024, from 2.2% over the final five months of 2023. In this evolving landscape, it's crucial for #business owners to consult with advisors to interpret these economic signals and plan effectively. Read below and reach out if you’d like to discuss how economic factors may impact your business. I can connect you with a Frost advisor for personalized insights. Member FDIC. #BusinessBanking #EconomicInsights #BusinessOwner