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Our latest scoop: #Qatar Energy within weeks could sign a long-term deal to provide liquefied natural gas (#LNG) to Indian buyers on cheaper and more flexible terms than existing contracts, trade sources said, as India seeks to meet a goal to increase the fuel's use. The #Indian companies and Qatar Energy have agreed on terms and a contract could be signed by the end of this month or early in February, one of the sources said, adding the contract offering destination-flexible cargoes and lower pricing, would run until at least 2050, possibly longer. It would extend contracts set to expire in 2028 for the supply of 8.5 million metric tons per year (tpy) LNG to Indian buyers and play a part in meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi's aim to raise the share of natural gas in the country's energy mix to 15% by 2030 from 6.3% now.

„…Connecting Germany’s energy network to its growing list of liquefied natural gas import hubs is likely to cost about €4.4 billion ($4.8 billion), according to the country’s grid operators. After Europe’s largest economy was crippled when Russia curbed pipeline gas shipments, Berlin fast-tracked the expansion of LNG terminals last year to open alternative supply routes. With three now in operation and three more to open this winter, the country still faces bottlenecks if it can’t quickly get the supercooled fuel carried by seagoing vessels pumped into onshore networks. The latest development plan involves building 951 kilometers (591 miles) of new gas lines by 2032 and adding as much as 164 megawatts of compressor capacity, according to the report approved by energy regulator Bundesnetzagentur and published Thursday. The plan revises a draft the regulator approved last year before Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Consequently, 82 projects have been added to make the grid fit for non-Russian imports, including border infrastructure upgrades to handle LNG transported from other European harbors. Other “LNGplus” scenarios are also outlined in the report, such as more gas getting imported via southern routes and not just through the country’s north coast terminals. The models also foresee a 20% reduction in German gas demand by 2032 — which includes a blended supply with 5% hydrogen — that will mean less pipe infrastructure is required. BNetzA acknowledges the possibility of demand falling even faster, and some experts have said as much as 90% of the distribution network could be decommissioned by 2045. Meanwhile, the grid operators also say that about 2,000 kilometers of their pipes could be switched to hydrogen.“

EXCLUSIVE-Russia's Novatek issues force majeure notices over Arctic LNG 2 project -sources - Reuters By aizhu chen and Marwa Rashad SINGAPORE/LONDON, Dec 21 (Reuters) - #Novatek NVTK.MM, Russia's largest producer of liquefied natural gas (#LNG), has sent force majeure notifications to some of its clients over future supplies from its Arctic LNG 2 #ALNG2 project, four industry sources told Reuters on Thursday. Novatek declined to immediately comment on the situation. The notifications were issued after the United States last month imposed sanctions on Arctic LNG 2, which is due to start production before the end of this year or in early 2024. Arctic LNG 2's designed capacity, with three trains, is 19.8 million metric tons per year and 1.6 million tons per year of stable gas condensate. The project is a key element of Russia's drive to increase its market share on the global LNG market to a fifth by 2030 - from around 8% now. The first LNG tankers from the project were expected to set sail in the first quarter of next year. One of the sources said that clients who had contracted to buy the LNG, such as China's Shenergy Group and Zheijang Energy and Spain's Repsol REP.MC, had received force majeure notifications. Repsol, which signed heads of agreement with Novatek on LNG supplies from Arctic LNG 2 and other projects in 2019, said it did not have a firm gas supply contract and the company had not received any force majeure notification. Shenergy Group and Zheijang Energy were not immediately available for comment outside of business hours. A seller of goods or services may declare force majeure in the event that they cannot supply them due to circumstances beyond their control. In such a case, they must notify the other party and offer an explanation. https://lnkd.in/eCCksVQ4.

Oil in Norwegian On this day in 1986, Gullfaks came on stream. Gullfaks was the first field discovered and developed by a Norwegian operator and partnership (Statoil, Hydro and Saga, all now Equinor). One notable difference from the already producing fields was the working language. English was both the natural and necessary working language during the early years of the oil industry on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). A large proportion of the workforce was foreign and, in many cases, the terms used lacked Norwegian equivalents. As time passed, however, native personnel accounted for a larger and larger proportion of the total, and using English was no longer as pressing. But the Norwegian terminology was lacking. Young Norwegian engineers with growing self-confidence and linguistic awareness contributed to a “Norwegianisation” of the industry’s language, as veteran Statoil executive Jakob Bleie recalled: There was a lot of arrogance in the American companies. ‘We know how to do this, and we’ve been doing it for years, and this is something you Norwegians don’t need to worry about’. And we who were young then and sat listening to this, began to get massively irritated because they behaved in many ways as if they were coming to an underdeveloped country without educated people. And we decided at an early stage that this was something we should manage ourselves. We would manage it ourselves. And language, of course, becomes in many ways an important part of the overall picture. Språkrådet #equinor #gullfaks #norskoljemuseum #petroleummuseum #industriminne #industrialheritage #language Read more here: https://lnkd.in/dCTjsmQB

EXPLAINER- How would the #RedSea attacks affect #gas #shipping? Several shipping companies and a few liquefied natural gas (#LNG) tankers have decided to avoid the world's main East-West trade route, following attacks launched by #Yemen's #Houthi group on commercial ships at the southern end of the Red Sea. IS THE RED SEA ROUTE IMPORTANT FOR THE LNG MARKET? The attacks have made reaching the Suez Canal more perilous. About 12% of world shipping traffic transits the canal and 4-8% of global LNG cargoes have passed through it in 2023. This year, a total of 16.2 million metric tons (MMt), or 51% of LNG trade, has flowed from the Atlantic Basin east through the Suez Canal, while 15.7 MMt went through the canal from the Pacific Basin west, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. WHO ARE THE MAIN SHIPPERS THROUGH THE ROUTE? #Qatar, the #unitedstates and #Russia are the most active shippers via Suez. S&P estimates Qatari cargoes through the canal at 14.8 MMt, U.S. cargoes at 8.8 MMt and Russian ones at 3.7 MMt. Qatar tops active shippers of cargoes heading from the East to Europe, but it provides only around 5% of net EU and UK imports. "In reality, Qatar is the only exporter in an east-to-west direction via the Suez Canal. You can count the number of cargoes from Oman and the UAE to Europe this year on one hand,” said Robert Songer, LNG analyst at date intelligence firm ICIS. An alternative route to Europe through the Cape of Good Hope could increase Qatari voyage days by 145%, or an extra 22 days on a round-trip basis, according to S&P estimates. For LNG to Asia, Qatar comes on top followed by the United States which has been using the Suez Canal recently as an alternative to the Panama Canal. ICIS' Songer said that U.S. #Cheniere Energy has four tankers that were designed to avoid the Panama Canal due to being too big and hence sometimes go via Suez. HOW MARKET PLAYERS SEE THE RISK? Market players believe LNG trade is likely to be largely unaffected and any disruption would not have a massive impact on global supply. European gas prices saw a short-lived rebound on Monday on concerns over supply disruption from Qatar but had fallen back by Tuesday. The majority believe that U.S. shipments, if they head to China/Asia, could only see short-term delay if cargoes reroute. "The physical risks to Suez LNG transit are more weighted towards keeping Atlantic supply pointed at Europe than stopping Qatari supply from reaching Europe," said Jake Horslen, senior LNG analyst at Energy Aspects. The chairman of the #Japan Gas Association (JGA), Takahiro Honjo, told a news conference that while there are risks, "I don't think a supply crunch will suddenly occur anytime soon". Honjo, also the chairman of Osaka Gas Co., said that given the Panama Canal congestion, LNG companies have a few options including swapping supply between Europe and Asia.

Why is it so vital for a country to own active refining capacity? Crude oil in its natural state can hardly be used unless it is refined. Refined oil is a valuable export and countries that control it wield tremendous influence in the market place. According to EIA, the total volume of products that refineries produce (output) is greater than the volume of crude oil that refineries process (input) because most of the products they make have a lower density than the crude oil they process. In other words, you create so much value refining your crude oil in-country than importing refined oil. Countries can reduce the cost of fuels like petrol, kerosene, diesel, if they achieve good scale in refining their crude. Amazingly, the value contained in refining has compelled countries like South Korea, a nation with relatively insignificant proven oil reserves, to build their refining capacity to 3.5million barrels per day (5th largest globally). Top 5 refining countries are U.S.A (18mbd), China(17mbpd), Russia(6.9mbpd), India (5mbpd) and S.Korea (3.5mbpd). South Korea proving that owning refining capacity is not dependent on owning any oil reserves at all. The economics is so compelling that it is obvious that money is being left on the table when an oil producing nation is not refining its crude. Refining crude oil is vital as it enhances a nation's energy security, creates jobs, attracts foreign investments, and generates revenue. The largest refinery in the world is located in India, the Jamnagar Refinery (1.24mbpd capacity), the largest refinery in Africa is the Dangote Refinery (650,000 bpd), while the U.S.A has the most refineries (129). In Africa, the refining capacity is low, and the country that scales up active refining capacity at the most competitive costs would control the market and export refined crude to the neighboring countries in the region. It goes without saying, refining business is big business.

Flashback: 5 months ago, on food security in Africa. The situation has not gotten any better. Kindly take a read: What the "hoarding" reaction to the end of the Black Sea grain deal could mean for Africa. 1. Ukraine has responded to Russia's exit from the grain deal by also warning Russia-bound cargo ships of being possible targets for Ukrainian fire. Russia had earlier given the same warnings to Ukraine-bound vessels. 2. This essentially means the supply of grain to the world market is going to be reduced drastically. World food prices are going to shoot up--bad for Africa. 3. When President Putin met leaders from seven African countries in mid-July 2023, he argued that the deal that allowed grain to be carried out of the Bosporus to the rest of the world had not benefited Africa. According to him, foods were diverted to other parts of the world. 4. And so what? 5. Even though Africa may not have received what it was "expected" to receive in terms of total tonnage, what Putin missed was the fact that the deal generally helped keep the global prices of food under control. This relatively benefited Africa. 6. The current collapse of the agreement and how countries are reacting to it, present a major challenge to African economies some of which are facing economic troubles. 7. What? 8. While the announcement of the end of the agreement and the issuance of threats from both belligerents have had food prices already “reacting”, the fact that some countries have started announcing food export bans will further exacerbate the problem—especially for Africa. 9. India, a major rice producer, has placed export limitations on the commodity in reaction to the Black Sea tensions. The world's most populous country is taking steps to ensure its food security in a tumultuous period. 10. This is inimical to Nigeria—Africa’s most populous state that has declared an emergency on food security—and other economies on the continent. Yes, global food prices are likely to shoot up. 11. Even some African countries have reacted by implementing "protectionist" policies of their own. The Republic of Guinea has suspended the export of some staples. The military junta has instructed that rice, potatoes and other staples remain in the country for the time being. 12. This means that African countries that have achieved positive food production may not be willing to share with those that heavily rely on imports. 13. Way forward? 14. As I have always argued, African states must give priority to food production in their respective agriculture sectors. The use of available factors of production to overwhelmingly produce non-food cash crops has not been helpful. 15. Also, smallholder farmers need to be supported as the main food providers. In the meantime, continental and regional organisations must encourage intra-African food trade. 16. Ubuntu! Riley Risk Inc. DefSEC Analytics Africa Ltd Below: levels of dependence of African on wheat from Ukraine and Russia.

📯🇳🇴Norway's investments in Oil & Gas will reach a new high in 2024 to almost $22 billion. A nearly 5% increase compared to 2023. 🇳🇴expects to find more resources in its offshore, including in the Arctic Barents Sea, while it seeks more coordination with🇪🇺EU on gas exports. According to Offshore Norway, investments in the🇳🇴Norwegian offshore will be up nearly 5% compared to 2023 & almost 20% higher than previous estimates. This is due to new upstream developments and the expansion of operating fields, other than a weak currency and high inflation. In the aftermath of the🇷🇺Russian invasion of🇺🇦Ukraine and the crumbling of the bilateral gas interdependence,🇳🇴Norway has become the largest exporter of gas to the🇪🇺EU and a key actor to stabilise the🇪🇺EU energy markets. 🇳🇴Oslo has promised to the🇪🇺EU to keep exports as high as possible until 2027-2028 in order to support the🇪🇺transition away from🇷🇺gas. In November,🇳🇴Norway recorded the highest amount of gas exports to the🇪🇺EU since last January amid ramping consumption and colder temperatures. According to🇳🇴Norwegian authorities, around 65% of the overall gas resources on the Norwegian Continental Shelf had yet to be produced. Around 1.2 Tcm of gas reserves have already been discovered in the NCS. 🇳🇴Energy Minister Aasland said that the government hopes those international companies active in the🇳🇴Norwegian gas sector won't “leave no stone unturned in their quest to find more gas in the Barents Sea" and that they would continue to maximise export capacity in this area, including considering the possibility of building a new pipeline from the Barents Sea to the already existing pipeline networks lying offshore the coast of🇳🇴Norway and providing sufficient gas supplies to several🇪🇺EU economies, including: 🇩🇪Germany 🇩🇰Denmark 🇫🇷France 🇧🇪Belgium 🇵🇱Poland 🇳🇱Netherlands 🇳🇴state-owned Equinor and🇬🇧Shell & BP, major actors in the exploitation of🇳🇴assets, have signed the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter at #COP28. The declaration aims to reach methane net-zero emissions by 2030 and slash carbon emissions to net zero by 2050. Still, the net zero commitment relates to scope 1 and 2 emissions, mostly related to upstream and midstream operations, where methane emissions are generated. The🇪🇺EU has approved a landmark political agreement to track, regulate and curb methane emissions, which will affect 🇳🇴Norway's gas business, so reliant on the🇪🇺EU market. Instead, #Cop28 Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter left scope 3 emissions unchecked, contributing for the largest share of global emissions from the energy industry. Are you satisfied with the #Cop28Dubai final results❓

Asia-Europe LNG spread at widest level in almost 2 years - Reuters News with Emily Chow SINGAPORE/LONDON, Dec 7 (Reuters) - The #Asia-#Europe liquefied natural gas (#LNG) spread has hit its widest level in about two years, data from S&P Global Commodity Insights showed, as congestion at #Panama makes sending U.S. LNG to Asia via alternative routes a bit more expensive than normal. The spread between the Japan Korea Market (JKM), widely used as an Asian LNG benchmark, and the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the European gas benchmark, was assessed by S&P at $2.79 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Dec. 6, its widest since Dec. 31, 2021. Spreads reflects the market-making differential between buyers and sellers of a commodity. Narrow spreads are a sign of market liquidity. "Continued issues at Panama Canal are causing a bit of risk premium in the JKM market," an trading source said. "It sends a signal that more flexible LNG supply from the Atlantic Basin should be heading to Asia, as the spread currently covers the additional shipping costs. But in reality, the bulk of flexible cargoes from the Atlantic Basin are still being exported to Europe, with the long-wait times at Panama Canal and high inventories in Asia capping restocking demand," the source said. The restrictions on the Panama Canal, one of the world's main maritime shipping routes, meant that tankers carrying LNG cargoes from the United States have to go around longer alternative routs: the Cape of Good Hope or the Suez Canal to reach Northeast Asia, taking around nine days longer. Jake Horslen, senior LNG analyst at consultancy Energy Aspect, said that only three U.S. LNG cargoes went via Panama towards Northeast Asia/Southeast Asia in November. "This is very low by historic standards - the average in was 12 cargoes per month in 2022 and 18/month in 2021. In 2023 so far, the average was 12/month until November when it dropped sharply to just 3," he said. Asian LNG demand has been tepid since early November due to solid inventories, weak industrial demand and generally mild weather. "We still see Asia-Pacific balances quite comfortable this winter and expect only a minimal Asian call on U.S. spot LNG, but the Panama congestion makes this marginal call a bit more expensive than normal," Horselen said. In Europe, record gas storage inventories and strong floating LNG storage meant the continent is well prepared for winter. S&P said that the spread between the JKM and the Northwest Europe LNG price reached $3.385/mmBtu on Dec. 6. "It is only just at the cusp of being profitable to ship cargoes from the United States around Cape/Suez to Northeast Asia. Were the JKM/NWE spread to stay over $3.50/mmBtu for a few days, we would likely to see cargoes flow to Northeast Asia for late-January and early-February deliveries, rather than to Europe," S&P said.