HotCopper’s Post

„…European natural gas prices declined for a second day on signs that Russian gas will continue flowing across Ukraine for now, slowing a rush toward bullish bets. Benchmark futures fell as much as 2.4% early Tuesday, trading around €39/MWh. Geopolitical risks — first in the Middle East, then in eastern Europe — jolted the market earlier this month, causing traders to snap up protection against higher gas prices. Some of those concerns have started to subside, with prices stabilizing after gaining 9% since the start of August. “Now that Russia and Ukraine have said they want to continue the gas flows some of the risk premium is easing,” said Florence Schmit, a European energy strategist at Rabobank. “But the risk premium from the Middle East is still a reality, and this is why prices will most likely remain in the mid 30s range in the absence of a further escalation.” Europe is also heading to the heating season with hefty inventories, and flows from top supplier Norway are relatively steady ahead of a heavy period of maintenance later this month. Industrial demand for the fuel also remains lackluster. Signs are emerging that speculative bets on higher prices may have reached their maximum point after reaching risk limits. “The build-up of a sizeable net long speculative position in futures markets could be a recipe for large price falls were geopolitical and war fears to recede,” said David Oxley, chief climate and commodities economist at London-based Capital Economics, in a research note on Monday. TTF front-month futures fell 1.33% to €39.13/MWh at 10:28 a.m. in Amsterdam.“

In my own words—China’s level of market dominance relative to United States. Click for my full video- https://lnkd.in/dUxWxffP #rareearthselements #mineralexplorations #criticalmineralsgeopolitics

7 Oil Stocks to Watch as Middle East Politics Take Center Stage

Global oil markets are pricing in a risk premium of $7 to $10 a barrel in the wake of Iran’s drone attacks on Israel over the weekend, posing the single largest risk to the current global economic recovery. Read more from RSM's Joseph Brusuelas and David Carter.

Global oil markets are pricing in a risk premium of $7 to $10 a barrel in the wake of Iran’s drone attacks on Israel over the weekend, posing the single largest risk to the current global economic recovery. Read more from RSM's Joseph Brusuelas and David Carter.

https://wix.to/IkHRXve Ceasefire talks often calm volatile markets. As tensions ease, oil prices typically drop, gold softens, and investor confidence in stocks grows. Learn how geopolitical events shape market trends. #MarketTrends #Geopolitics #Investing101 #OilPrices #Gold #USDollar #StockMarket

This is a video from 2 years ago the day the Russia Ukraine war broke out.   I went out on a limb that day and said that it would not have lasting impact on world stock markets - at a time when most commentators thought that this was going to be a market disaster!   Watch. Because hindsight explanations are easy.   The basis?   The data of all geo political disruptions over nearly 50 years.   There is turmoil and uncertainty when any conflict starts but the markets forget about it soon enough.   It is another matter that wars and conflicts don't end quickly even when the players are as mismatched as US and Vietnam or US and Afghanistan.   That remains our stance in the current conflict also.   That regardless of human tragedy the impact on markets will only be very short term.   However for this and other reasons there may be short term volatility in India, which can be hedged away.   Even on oil the impact maybe muted because whoever controls oil fields in the world, whether it is ISIS, the local dictator or western powers, wants to keep the oil flowing. That's the cash cow!   And sanctions on oil producers don't work, as workarounds are found - mainly as the consuming nations want cheap oil.   Plus US is now an oil exporter (who'd have thought!) which mutes the impact of conflicts in West Asia.   #inDataWeTrust #GeoPoliticalAnalysis #MarketInsights #StockMarket #ConflictAnalysis #MarketVolatility #OilMarket #GlobalEconomy #InvestmentStrategy #RiskAssessment #HistoricalData

Russian oil prices to remain steady, Middle East tensions already integrated — Novak The official highlighted that the market responded to the events currently underway in the Middle East in some way MOSCOW, September 30/ The escalation in the Middle East has already been incorporated into the price of oil, which is why there is no volatility on the oil market now, Russian Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, adding that strong oil price fluctuations are not expected in the future. "I don’t think that prices will fluctuate much. Those geopolitical risks have already been factored into the price one way or another," he said in an interview with Hadley Gamble on the Al Arabiya TV channel. "Geopolitics is one of the key factors that influence the price. However, we often see that if geopolitics has a strong influence at some point it is later incorporated by investors, market participants, and fundamentally we don’t observe volatility later. This is nothing new. So I think that the Middle East factor has long been factored into the price by now," Novak explained. Many factors influence oil prices, not just supply and demand, he added. "Of course, the geopolitical factor always plays on the market as well. And the market obviously responds to the events currently underway in the Middle East in some way," the official said. #business #finance #financialservices

Check out the latest Tank Tiger Blog analyzing the impact of Middle East tensions on the oil markets. #WTI Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/ej54nBtm

🔄 Market Psychology 101: When geopolitical tensions ease, oil prices tell the story first. Today's 4% drop in crude prices shows exactly how markets price in risk premiums - and remove them just as quickly.The latest developments in the Middle East illustrate this perfectly. After Iran downplayed Israel's strikes and signaled no immediate retaliation, we saw Brent crude dropping sharply, settling around $87 per barrel. What's fascinating is how quickly market sentiment can shift:• Just days ago: Oil traders were pricing in worst-case scenarios• Today: Risk premiums are unwinding as diplomatic channels remain open• Key Lesson: Markets often overreact initially, then correct as clarity emerges💡 Key Takeaway: While headlines drive short-term volatility, fundamental supply-demand dynamics ultimately prevail. This reminds us why keeping a level head during geopolitical tensions is crucial for long-term market analysis.What's your view on how geopolitical risk premiums should be calculated in today's interconnected markets? #OilMarkets #GeopoliticalRisk #MarketAnalysis #GlobalTrade #EnergyMarkets https://lnkd.in/dkNZVaeW