Howard Kusnick’s Post

"The Science" is never settled, and there is always more to learn, even when we think we've well-established the basics. Questioning "The Science" is how science is done, after all. If it weren't for questioning established science, we might still believe in many myths which were ultimately disproven over the Millenia to the present day. We may never have made the breakthrough discoveries in recent times which have revolutionized technology, medicine, physics and other areas of scientific inquiry. Perhaps this has more to do with wanting to believe in something, in seeking order, or our proclivity to use shortcuts to thinking (a normal human psychological phenomenon). Perhaps it is merely the "appeal to authority" logical fallacy in one of its most pernicious forms. Rather than questioning those who question "The Science," perhaps a bit of introspection is in order. How did we get here? Why do increasingly large swathes of the population distrust the "experts" and the credentialed class? What has led to this crisis of confidence in their prognostications? I can think of some answers, but what do you think?

I belong to a world-wide tribe of scientists, connected by belief in & trust of established processes to gather reproducible evidence & facts which reveal how the world around us works. Prof. Arthur Caplan in the latest issue of EMBO Reports ( https://lnkd.in/giuGseJf) calls scientists to better prepare ourselves to face 21st century ideologues with their anti-science messages. Hiding away in our own science world isn’t working. Caplan, a bioethicist, encourages us to bring our values to discussions. We must engage, advocate & hold a clear sense of accuracy & validation of our data gained with proven methodologies. We must also bring ‘our humility in the face of fallibility’ to the table - we are humans who can be relatable, who care deeply about our work and who can be both heard by the communities around us and trusted by them.

Imho, here’s a very important quote I learnt over the weekend. That nature does not appear in #economics. I’ve taken a few course in econs and I don’t see nature being featured. U see, when we extract resources from nature, she doesn’t charge us for it. Our financial costs include costs for extraction, conversion, making, distribution, consumption and disposal. Nature charges us when we abuse her. Eg, through natural disasters. And it’s almost always the poor who pays those costs. There’s a growing movement to add in cost of natural #capital. Every year, We extract 1.75x what the earth can produce annually. At no cost. Or so we thought. It’s an interesting viewpoint. I’m gonna explore this further as part of my interest in looking at the real triple bottom line of planet-people-profits. Food for thought… #LBFalumni   #SkyHighTower

Old-growth forests are less prone to drought pressures because they are better at retaining soil moisture and reducing the solar evaporative effect. Upon careful analysis, I believe that the public forests that have been routinely exploited are where we experience the highest threat of fire. https://lnkd.in/gpb89z7d

Global losses from natural disasters eclipsed the long-term average in the first half of 2024, with thunderstorms causing more damage in the U.S. than hurricanes, wildfires or other catastrophes. An analysis from the reinsurance company Munich Re found that severe thunderstorms in the U.S. caused $45 billion in losses from January to June, $34 billion of which were insured. That makes 2024 the fourth-costliest thunderstorm year on record, based on the first six months. Many of the losses were driven by tornadoes and hail spawned from the storms, the report notes. North America accounted for $60 billion in losses — half of all damages worldwide. Globally, insured losses totaled $62 billion, compared with the 10-year average of $37 billion. #USA #natural #disasters #have #already #increased #significatly #number #claims #in6monhs #of2024

In this C&EN editorial, ‪Krystal Vasquez‬ talks about how only focusing on the science of disasters can make it easy to forget that real people are also being impacted by them.

Wildfire in Los Angeles: A Scientific Analysis of the Causes. Why Is This Just the Beginning? In this crucial speech, Dr. Egon Cholakian, an official representative of the ALLATRA International Public Movement, extends his deepest condolences to those affected by the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles and presents a scientific analysis of the current crisis. The fires, which began on January 7, 2025, have already caused significant destruction and loss of life. Dr. Cholakian examines the causes behind these catastrophic fires, explores the increasing seismic activity along the San Andreas Fault, and addresses the grave threat posed by a magma plume in Siberia. Unlike other existing models, the ALLATRA climate model demonstrates exceptional forecasting accuracy by integrating a wide range of factors, from geophysical and climatic to cosmic influences. All previous predictions made using this model have been fully validated, establishing it as a unique tool for predicting future natural phenomena. The presentation offers scientifically grounded recommendations for modernizing urban planning systems, optimizing emergency response protocols, and implementing a project for the controlled degassing of the magma plume. This material is based on years of research and verified scientific data supported by statistical analysis and advanced mathematical modeling. Dr. Cholakian proposes actionable solutions to safeguard populations, including rethinking urban planning approaches, enhancing emergency response systems, and executing the controlled degassing of the magma plume. These conclusions are underpinned by years of scientific research and validated by cutting-edge analytical methods. https://lnkd.in/gxw8dQBp

Friendly reminder to consider submitting an abstract to the Flood Forecasting session at AGU24! The 2024 Annual Meeting of the American Geophysical Union will take place December 9-23 in Washington DC. Check out: Flood Forecasting @ AGU24 https://lnkd.in/gj2yrWYP Session Description Floods are the most common type of natural disaster and the rate of flood-related disasters has more than doubled since the start of the 21st century. Warning systems can mitigate the human impacts from flooding by reducing fatalities and economic damage. Populations in low- and middle-income countries remain the most vulnerable. Providing actionable flood warnings requires solving problems across an extended workflow involving observation, modeling, forecasting, warning, impact evaluation, and decision making. This session is dedicated to sharing work related to all aspects of this workflow. Relevant work includes, but is not limited to, the following: - Modeling and forecasting - Observations to support forecasts - Research and technological innovation supporting effective early warning systems, including last mile delivery - Impact-based forecasting - Human geography, social dynamics and economic impact of flood forecasting, alerts and response - Transition of Research to Operations (R2O) and Operations to Research (O2R) - Policy and governance frameworks Conveners: Grey Nearing (Google Research) Shaun Harrigan & Florian Pappenberger (Copernicus ECMWF) Steve Burian (Alabama Water Institute, Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (CIROH) at The University of Alabama)

🌊 "Tame" Problems or "Wicked" Problems? A Hydrologist's Perspective 🌧️ As hydrologists, we're no strangers to challenges, but the landscape of water management is changing more now than ever before. The issues we face today are unprecedented in their complexity and scope. They're not just "tame" problems with straightforward solutions; they're "wicked" problems that intertwine with various environmental, social, and technological factors. Addressing these wicked problems requires more than just technical know-how. It demands an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approach, engaging stakeholders at every level, employing adaptive strategies, and fostering an environment of open collaboration. This is the only way to navigate the uncertainties and trade-offs involved effectively. Today, in our last post of this series on "Wicked problems" Claim No.10: The problem has no immediate and no ultimate test of a solution. Wait for our next series coming soon! 💧🤝 #Hydrology #WickedProblems #OPENCOLLABORATIONHYDROLOGY

Consider submitting an abstract to the Flood Forecasting session at AGU24! The 2024 Annual Meeting of the American Geophysical Union will take place December 9-23 in Washington DC. Abstract submissions are open here: https://lnkd.in/gBGxdjbM Session Description Floods are the most common type of natural disaster and the rate of flood-related disasters has more than doubled since the start of the 21st century. Warning systems can mitigate the human impacts from flooding by reducing fatalities and economic damage. Populations in low- and middle-income countries remain the most vulnerable. Providing actionable flood warnings requires solving problems across an extended workflow involving observation, modeling, forecasting, warning, impact evaluation, and decision making. This session is dedicated to sharing work related to all aspects of this workflow. Relevant work includes, but is not limited to, the following: - Modeling and forecasting - Observations to support forecasts - Research and technological innovation supporting effective early warning systems, including last mile delivery - Impact-based forecasting - Human geography, social dynamics and economic impact of flood forecasting, alerts and response - Transition of Research to Operations (R2O) and Operations to Research (O2R) - Policy and governance frameworks Conveners: Grey Nearing (Google Research) Shaun Harrigan & Florian Pappenberger (Copernicus ECMWF) Steve Burian (Alabama Water Institute, Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (CIROH) at The University of Alabama)