Human Rights Foundation’s Post

We are just 3 hours away from the start of the Iranian presidential election runoff. Latest polls from six reputable firms conducted Wednesday and Thursday show an average turnout of 45%; reformist Pezeshkian leads with 50.6%, Jalili at 45.1%, with 4% undecided/spoiled votes. Runoff elections typically see lower turnout compared to the first round, often due to voter fatigue. Yet, like France's 2002 election, decisive competitions can trigger higher mobilization. Current polls suggest a 5% increase in turnout, which aligns with my observations. There's noticeable engagement among academics, intellectuals, and activists encouraging participation. This increased activism makes the projected rise in voter turnout quite plausible. A higher voter turnout may tip the scales in favor of Pezeshkian, driven by voters intent on preventing a Jalili presidency. Many see Jalili as a hardliner who would adopt a repressive domestic policy and resist negotiations with the West over Iran's nuclear program. This mobilizes those who favor reform and international engagement, potentially boosting Pezeshkian's chances. A lower turnout than in the first round is likely to boost conservative Jalili's chances. Today’s turnout will be critical.

Will this general election deliver the right result? The right result in my opinion is a party with a decent working majority, I am guessing 30 + seats. I am not in favour of 'hung' Parliaments precisely because of the compromising that has to be done, leading to poor/weak governance and government - again my opinion. As a country we are not natural coalitionists, some countries are. We had the option to vote for PR in future General elections a few years back in a referendum, and that was unambiguously rejected much to disappointment of the smaller parties. Before anyone points out to me the present govt had a more than a decent working majority but that did not stop them fighting constantly amongst themselves, you are right. But I think the dual shocks of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine took everybody's eye of the ball. The job of government is providing for us citizens, a safe predictable environment in which we can flourish and achieve whatever potential we have. Am I being a bit simplistic, no apologies for that?

🔔 🔔🔔 On the Iranian election tomorrow! 🇮🇷 🔔🔔🔔 With Qazi Zadeh Hashemi and Zakani withdrawing from the upcoming Iranian election, the key candidates are now Qalibaf, Jalili, and Pezeshkian. There is speculation about whether Jalili or Qalibaf will step aside in favor of the other, but no indication of this happening yet. The Iranian supreme leader is said to prefer Jalili ideologically but considers Qalibaf more pragmatic. Jalili, while a conservative and fundamentalist loyal to the leadership, lacks the practical experience to enforce the regime's commands. Conversely, Qalibaf, a conservative figure with a history of harshly suppressing protests, has substantial implementation experience, making him a potentially better choice for the regime. Pezeshkian, who identifies as a moderate reformist, has the backing of significant reformist figures like former foreign minister Javad Zarif and former president Hassan Rouhani. If Jalili and Qalibaf don't consolidate their support by one withdrawing, Pezeshkian's chances of winning could improve. 📣 Nonetheless, the question remains whether any of these candidates can effectively challenge the Iranian supreme leader's authority. In my opinion, this is not possible. All the candidates have repeatedly confirmed during their debates that they adhere to the principles and constitution of the Islamic Republic and will follow the main manifesto of the Valiat Faqih. Additionally, the Guardian Council has thoroughly evaluated these candidates and ensured that there are firm agreements in place to prevent any provocative statements even during the debates. This engineering is intended to avoid any surprises like those seen during the Green Movement. Given the backgrounds of the candidates—Qalibaf with a military and police background, Jalili as a member of the Expediency Discernment Council of Iran, and Pezeshkian as a member of parliament—the only "problematic" candidate might be Pezeshkian. However, despite his higher chances of winning according to polls, neither his character nor his position would allow him to challenge the system effectively. He is unlikely to achieve significant reforms, as his reformist predecessors have failed to make substantial changes. With the election tomorrow, we will soon see the outcome.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan just experienced what analysts deem his worst political setback in more than two decades. His long-ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, lost emphatically in local elections around the country Sunday — a surprising rebuke after Erdogan had consolidated his tight grip on power in general elections last year. The opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, secured victories nationwide and in Turkey’s five biggest cities, including Istanbul Enter Ekrem Imamoglu, the incumbent CHP mayor of Istanbul, who has emerged as the central figure of a new generation of politicians in the Turkish scene. This turn of events is fueled, first and foremost, by voter anger at a frustrating status quo. “It was Erdogan’s handling of the economy that appeared to loom largest in the race, with households battered by runaway inflation and the cratering value of the currency,” But perhaps the most important dynamic was the one that drove the CHP’s success. The party is tied to Turkey’s statist, secularist past and for many years, as Asli Aydintasbas, a Turkey scholar at the Brookings Institution, (said), has been seen as too “dogmatic and elitist,” seeming “to appeal solely to urban secularists.” Its former leader, the septuagenarian Kemal Kilicdaroglu, repeatedly failed to defeat Erdogan in elections, including last year. But a new crop of talent — from Kilicdaroglu’s successor Ozgur Ozel to Imamoglu himself, who can claim a similar everyman identity as Erdogan — is leading the way. And they are building broader coalitions. The Istanbul mayor’s success, Aydintasbas argued, is linked to three factors: First, “charisma matters,” she said, and Imamoglu has that in spades. Second, Imamoglu could count on an expanding coalition of voters, including Kurds, who were once turned off by the CHP’s elitist, secularist legacy, but proved vital to his reelection in Istanbul. Third, Imamoglu had his own track record of capable governance and administration. https://lnkd.in/gQCQhhBA

The upcoming elections in Hungary will be interesting to watch.

Exactly 5 years ago, the inauguration of Volodymyr Zelenskyy took place.   We can be confident that this is a signal for all Russian propagandists, troll factories, and paid "opinion leaders" to begin claiming that Zelenskyy lacks legitimacy because no elections have taken place.   He is legitimate.   There can be no elections during a war. No one can guarantee the safety of people during an active war. ▪️ Over 5 million Ukrainians could live in temporarily occupied territories where it is not possible to hold elections. ▪️ 4-5 million people have temporarily moved abroad, and while there could be elections in embassies, turnout would be rather small. ▪️ other at least 5 million live in active war zone or under constant shelling ▪️ So this is not democracy when less than half of the country can vote, risking their lives. ▪️ There might not even be enough international observers. ▪️ All the IT systems of the election would be under significant threat while there cannot be valid e-voting during the active phase of the war   And more importantly: ▪️ the Constitution or election law does not foresee nor demand to hold elections during war. The president is legitimate until the first elections after the war. ▪️ only 15% of Ukrainians want to hold elections now, and the support rate for Zelenskyy is ca. 70%. ▪️ all the political parties have agreed to have elections only after the war.   So, yes, Zelenskyy is legitimate. And please share this post with anyone who says the opposite.

We are at a point where market volatility starts to increase due to the incoming US elections of November 5. Volatility “harvesters” will see a short time advantage because of that. On the other hand, speaking about Greece the so called (in Greek ΤΧΣ) prepares luggages through a withdrawal of approximately 13-14% of its investment within NBG. That is, the 18.9% seat on the specific bank will go down to 5%. The reason they do that, as they claim is market volatility due to the incoming US elections November 5.

All eyes are on the #French elections as a cohabitation scenario looms. This disruption has created uncertainties and may impact France's strength within the #EU. However, #EU institutions and processes are poised to manage anti-establishment sentiments, ensuring stability. Navigating EU influence and projecting national interests through Brussels is crucial for success of any government. Your learn it fast or you lose big time. https://trib.al/KI1SSqV

Today marks the start of candidate registration for Iran's early presidential election next month, following the tragic death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. This unexpected event has sparked a fierce competition among hardliners vying to influence the selection of Iran’s next leader. Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi announced the five-day registration period on state TV, as reported by Reuters. The Guardian Council, responsible for overseeing elections, will then vet the candidates over seven days, with the list of qualified candidates set to be published on June 11. The campaign period will follow, lasting almost two weeks. Moderate politicians have expressed concerns about the Guardian Council's history of disqualifying non-hardline candidates, predicting a restricted choice on the ballot and potential low voter turnout due to widespread discontent over political, social, and economic issues. Among the notable candidates registering is Saeed Jalili, a former chief nuclear negotiator and a prominent hardliner. Other potential candidates include Parviz Fattah, interim President Mohammad Mokhber, and former parliament speaker Ali Larijani, though Larijani was barred from the 2021 race. This election comes at a critical time, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s health in question and the nation facing severe economic hardships. The elected president will play a crucial role in addressing these challenges while navigating Iran’s complex political landscape. Stay tuned for updates on this developing story. #IranElection #BreakingNews #IranPolitics #EbrahimRaisi #GuardianCouncil #Hardliners #Moderates #SaeedJalili #ParvizFattah #MohammadMokhber #AliLarijani #AyatollahKhamenei #IranianPolitics #Election2024 #Thesocialtalks

What is impressive about these elections is that there was a choice. This is all but something one can take for granted and should give credit to Turkey- in these bleak times of fake elections (Russia in particular), and the Bertelsmann study on democracy and authoritarian regimes https://lnkd.in/dYP2DyS2 stating that there are only 63 democracies compared to 74 authoritarian regimes