Hubbard Decision Research’s Post

Doug Hubbard is thrilled to announce that he will be a featured speaker at this year's virtual Risk Awareness Week 2024. Doug will present an informative session titled, "Calibration, Aggregation, and AI: New Technologies for Estimating Uncertainty". This is an event you won't want to miss! Learn More and Register Here: https://lnkd.in/gxdEKvt2 #RAW2024

Get an exclusive preview of the content from Doug Hubbard's upcoming book, How to Measure Anything in Project Management, (co-authored with Alexander Budzier and Andreas Bang Leed) which is set for release in 2025. Join Doug Hubbard and the HDR Team for this two-hour interactive webinar where you will learn how quantitative methods can be applied to even the most challenging measurement problems in project management. We will demonstrate how to use the Applied Information Economics (AIE) methodology to measure any intangible in project management and evaluate project risk like an actuary. By applying quantitative methods to project management, you will learn how to make measurably better decisions when managing and prioritizing projects no matter the size. 📅 When is it? Thursday, September 12th: 10:00AM - 12:00PM US CT Monday, December 9th: 3:00PM - 5:00PM US CT What's on the Agenda? ✅Understanding what is wrong with current project risk management methods ✅Thinking about project measurements and project risk more like a scientist and actuary ✅How to better approve and prioritize projects ✅How to build Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the value of a project ✅Knowing what to measure based on the Value of Information calculations ✅Modeling and measuring the risk of project failure Register Here: https://lnkd.in/eXNiRtd

Understanding the Components of Applied Information Economics (AIE): 🔍 Model: Tackle uncertainty with math using probabilities and Monte Carlo simulations to compute risk and value of information. 🎯 Calibrate: Enhance expert judgment through calibration training, performance tracking, and consistency control. 📊 Measure: Leverage empirical methods, including conventional statistics and Bayesian approaches, for accurate measurement. 💡 Optimize: Make informed decisions by evaluating risk/return tradeoffs and optimizing project portfolios. AIE provides a comprehensive framework for smarter decision-making. Learn more about how these components work together to improve outcomes: https://lnkd.in/eQ3b3U8 #DecisionMaking #RiskManagement #DataScience #AIE #BusinessOptimization #QuantitativeAnalysis

Too many decisions are made based on assumptions rather than data—especially when it comes to intangibles. Decision-makers often believe that key intangibles can't be measured, leading to poor choices. But the truth is, if it matters, it can be measured—and if it can be measured, it can guide better decisions. The problem? Organizations often suffer from measurement inversion—where the most critical factors are the least understood and least measured. As a result, decisions are often based on what's easy to measure, not what's important. The solution? Understand measurement inversion and implement a proven plan to overcome it. When you measure what truly matters, you empower your organization to make more informed, effective decisions. Learn more about overcoming measurement inversion: https://lnkd.in/gQ9Hk2tK #datascience #riskmanagement #businessandmanagement #performancemanagement #management #riskmanagementcommunity #cybersecurity #riskmodeling #intangibles #aie #appliedinformationeconomics #quantitativedecisionanalysis #Bayesiananalysis #Rstatistics

Is ChatGPT as Overconfident as Humans? In a thought-provoking article from Hubbard Decision Research’s Big Decision Blog, the age-old issue of overconfidence is examined—this time through the lens of artificial intelligence. The article asks the question, is ChatGPT as overconfident as humans? Through rigorous tests comparing ChatGPT-4’s probabilistic estimates against human performance, the article reveals intriguing findings about how both AI and humans tend to misjudge uncertainty. Spoiler: ChatGPT performs better than you might expect but still falls prey to familiar human biases. Check out the full article here: https://lnkd.in/gFZ4mT4g #chatgpt #ai #artificialintelligence #aiblog #chatgptblog #decisionanalysis #chatgptblog #overconfidence #aie #hubbarddecisionresearch

The success of any organization hinges on the decisions made by its leaders and managers. Unfortunately, many decision-makers rely on outdated methods, gut feelings, or unscientific processes that lead to suboptimal outcomes. Our quantitative decision analysis offers a better approach—one grounded in objective, scientific methods. By leveraging data and mathematical models, this approach helps decision-makers accurately assess risk and choose the best path forward. It's time to leave behind bias and guesswork. Embrace a decision-making process that’s rooted in data and proven to deliver better results. Learn more about our Quantitative Decision Analysis consulting services: https://lnkd.in/gQsmWNH #datascience #riskmanagement #businessandmanagement #performancemanagement #management #riskmanagementcommunity #cybersecurity #riskmodeling #intangibles #aie #appliedinformationeconomics #quantitativedecisionanalysis #Bayesiananalysis #Rstatistics

HDR’s webinar schedule is live! Don’t miss the opportunity to deepen your knowledge and stay at the forefront of industry advancements! 📝How to Measure Anything in Project Management Thursday, September 12th: 10:00AM - 12:00PM US CT Monday, December 9th: 3:00PM - 5:00PM US CT $95 📝How to Measure Anything in Innovation: AI Edition Wednesday, October 16th: 9:00AM - 11:00AM US CT Thursday, December 5th: 1:00PM - 3:00PM US CT $95 📝The Failure of Risk Management Tuesday, October 22nd: 3:00PM - 5:00PM US CT $95 📝How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk (2-Hour Webinar) Wednesday, October 23rd: 3:00PM - 5:00PM CT $95 Register Here: https://lnkd.in/g2Tcibe

Enhance your decision making with these 5 Do's and Don'ts for Measuring Intangibles! 📊 Do's: Define Your Metrics Clearly 🎯 Use the AIE Framework 📈 Focus on Reducing Uncertainty 🌐 Quantify What Matters 📊 Leverage Hubbard Decision Research's Expertise 🔍 Don'ts: Ignore Intangibles 🚫 Rely Solely on Simple Metrics 📉 Underestimate Their Impact 💡 Overlook Proper Definitions 🔍 Be Afraid of Complexity 🤔 Measure the "immeasurable" and make smarter decisions. Visit the website for more: https://lnkd.in/eQ3b3U8

At Hubbard Decision Research, we've proven that anything can be measured – even the most complex and uncertain problems. With over 200 major analysis projects, we've helped industries across the globe quantify the unquantifiable, from assessing the benefits and risks of dams on the Mekong River to cybersecurity risk assessments in various industries. Some of our impactful work includes: ✔ Evaluating the value of R&D portfolios in aerospace, biotech, and pharma ✔ Forecasting logistics for the battlefield and measuring training effectiveness for the US Military ✔ Prioritizing infrastructure investments in Haiti for the United Nations ✔ No matter how challenging the measurement problem, we find a way to evaluate it and deliver actionable results. Learn more about our approach: https://lnkd.in/gRSuBii #datascience #riskmanagement #businessandmanagement #performancemanagement #management #riskmanagementcommunity #cybersecurity #riskmodeling #intangibles #aie #appliedinformationeconomics #quantitativedecisionanalysis