iM Global Partner’s Post

Don't make an investment based on a prediction from a 'Market Watch' expert. If you looked at any analyst, what they predicted, and their rate of accuracy, you would never consider buying their prediction again. And then of course you see the individuals who predicted the stock market bubble in 2001 or the crash of 08... I want to know how many other things they predicted that didn't turn out to be true. Instead of basing a decision on an 'expert's' prediction of the market, Maintain a long-term vision, and never predict short-term outcomes especially when things are not in your control. #goldenCPAnuggets #accounting #business

Here is a clip of my interview this morning on CNBC: Keep in mind that the equally weighted NASDAQ 100 is slightly negative over the past 3 years. Tech/AI stocks delivering revenue and earnings growth will continue to outpace others. The S&P 500 is up around 10% since December 2021, translating to an annualized return of less than 4% over the last 30 months. Job numbers are being revised downward, and inflation is becoming a story of the past. I anticipate the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting. Even with this cut, the Fed funds rate will remain tight at 4.75% Please share your views about know the markets and outlook in comments below Thank you !! —— My interview from this morning. No reason to think bearish pattern will persist, says Crossbridge Capital CIO https://cnb.cx/3WGx02E #markets #cnbc #august #seasonality #investing #macro #volatility #federalreserve #rates #NASDAQ #SP500

Chart from Morgan Stanley Research on ISABELNET showing the correlation between CEO Confidence and S&P 500 Buybacks. The increase in CEO Business Confidence for the Economy to over 50 is a potential tailwind along with growing earnings and lower interest rates for stock buybacks. #ceoconfidence #economy #interestrates #earnings #stockbuybacks

Sneak Peek- September 2024 Newsletter: We had recently promised to share some investor strategies in markets which are hitting all time highs and sitting on stretched valuations: Sharing few here: 1.Cut the Crap: In bullish markets, it is inevitable that low quality stock with dubious promoters or corrupt practices or low corporate governance standards unknowingly creep into the portfolios. Analyze, evaluate and get rid of them. 2.From Euphoria to Prudence: Maximum euphoria exists in micro, penny and SME stocks. Shift to larger cap stocks unemotionally. 3.Low float to High Float Stocks: Allocate more to large cap stocks by shifting one third of your small cap and mid cap portfolio to top 100 market cap stocks. Repeat, if market goes up further by 10% and so on. Check out the latest edition of "Paisa Vasool" (coming soon) for analysis and projections.

This is the only way to make money in the stock market ethically … predicting the future. Many investors get stuck looking at past metrics like ROCE, ROE, past sales, and debt. While these are important indicators, relying solely on them won’t help you capture future wealth. If you truly want to grow your portfolio, you need to predict where the company is heading. This means focusing on future sales, profits, industry trends, and even commodity prices. Use the past as a guide, but remember, wealth is built by understanding the future. Take clues from the present—company guidance, order books, and market trends. The key is to focus on what's next, not just what’s already happened.

“I would really focus investors on positioning for a lower interest rate environment and we’re starting to see that trade happening now as we saw small caps really rallying against mega cap tech selling off recently,” said Jimmy Lee during an appearance on CNBC #WorldwideExchange.    Jimmy advises investors to avoid focusing too heavily on the presidential race when making investment decisions. Instead, he suggests paying attention to earnings and cyclical sectors like industrials, financials, and real estate, which have the potential to rebound in a lower-rate environment.   Check out the full interview segment for what to watch this earnings season, Jimmy’s outlook on the small cap rally, and more: https://shorturl.at/4HhME

To borrow from my alma mater, the bond market remains non incautus futuri ("Not Unmindful of the Future") with concerns over continued fiscal deficits and long-term debt, while the stock market is more focused on earnings sustainability and growth. Great to start the day with Frank Holland on CNBC Worldwide Exchange discussing what these two worldviews mean for investors and the implications for portfolios.

#WisdomWednesdays As the magnificent 7 continue to dominate the market and distort major indices, it reminds us of other periods in market history when extreme valuations created opportunities in over-looked areas of the market. During times of high market concentration, we believe true active management – relying on deep, independent research and stock selection – is critical to reduce the risks facing the indices today. #investing #valueinvesting

What a difference 6 months makes - the CNN 'Fear & Greed' index is now showing firmly in the 'Greed' category. What does this mean? Nothing, other than a reminder that market sentiment can change rapidly and will both overshoot and undershoot regularly, but that over the long run sentiment means very little. The upward trajectory of stock prices is driven more by fundamentals such as corporate earnings. Today, tomorrow, next week, the value of asset prices will be driven by sentiment. But over the timeframes that matter - years and decades - the value of asset prices will be driven by the fair market valuation of those assets 😀

Entertaining time to be on CNBC yesterday, with the yen surging, stocks tanking, and bond yields plunging. A 3 minute excerpt is attached. I also noted that the last time we saw a bond-equity correlation reversal like this was 1999 and it was followed by a massive stock market rally. Even with this volatility, there isn't yet enough evidence to derail the stock market rally, although we'd welcome a rotation to reprice defensives. Diversified portfolios like the BML Global Fund are outperforming these markets, and it's a timely reminder of the benefit of risk management.