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Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy by Charles Schwab A huge shout out to Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon for such an insightful and comprehensive analysis. Based on this, I have created a video highlighting the main points of that comprehensive publication. Bifurcation in the Economy: What You Need to Know for 2024 Summary: This video dives deep into the current state of the economy, highlighting the clear bifurcations in recovery. From manufacturing vs. services to large vs. small caps, it breaks down what these splits mean for investors and the market. Discover why real incomes lag, how consumer confidence is shaped by inflation, and why long-term Treasury yields are driving stock trends more than Fed policy. Why tune in? - See how services have reaccelerated while manufacturing struggles - Understand the divergence in the labor market between payrolls and household employment - Learn about the growing gap in import/export trends due to strong US growth - Discover the impact of inflation on consumer confidence and spending habits Check out the video for a deeper dive and share your thoughts! Is the economy's split recovery sustainable, or are we heading for more turbulence? #Economy #Investment #MarketTrends #Finance #EconomicRecovery

In light of recent labor market reports, it's crucial for you, the American business owner, to grasp the unfolding economic landscape. According to Professor Jeremy J. Siegel, a senior economist to WisdomTree and Emeritus Professor of Finance at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, we're currently experiencing a "Goldilocks scenario" for the economy and markets. This scenario is neither too hot nor too cold, presenting a unique set of opportunities and challenges for businesses nationwide. 1. Labor Market Strength: Friday's labor market report showcased robust data, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.8%, positioning us squarely in the ideal range of 3.6% - 4%. "The average hours worked bounced up to 34.4, which is a positive sign," Siegel noted, emphasizing the resilience and potential growth of the workforce. 2. Inflation Watch: The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports are poised to significantly influence Federal Reserve policy. Siegel predicts, "The early call is for year-over-year core CPI to decelerate to 3.7%." A deceleration in inflation could signal a favorable environment for equity markets and overall economic stability. 3. Commodity Price Rise: A point of slight concern is the recent uptick in commodity prices, attributed partly to global events. While not immediately alarming, Siegel advises, "This bears watching but is not yet a negative." For businesses, this could mean reassessing cost structures and supply chain strategies. As a business owner, how do you navigate these economic signals? Are you positioned to leverage the strength of the labor market and potentially lower inflation rates? Or are rising commodity prices a looming challenge for your operational costs? Engage in this conversation below, share your insights, and let's explore strategies to thrive in this balanced economic environment. Remember, understanding the macroeconomic trends is key to steering your business through uncertain times. #business #economy #laborreport #inflation #commodityprices #entrepreneurship #smallbusiness #finance

In light of recent labor market reports, it's crucial for you, the American business owner, to grasp the unfolding economic landscape. According to Professor Jeremy J. Siegel, a senior economist to WisdomTree and Emeritus Professor of Finance at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, we're currently experiencing a "Goldilocks scenario" for the economy and markets. This scenario is neither too hot nor too cold, presenting a unique set of opportunities and challenges for businesses nationwide. 1. Labor Market Strength: Friday's labor market report showcased robust data, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.8%, positioning us squarely in the ideal range of 3.6% - 4%. "The average hours worked bounced up to 34.4, which is a positive sign," Siegel noted, emphasizing the resilience and potential growth of the workforce. 2. Inflation Watch: The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports are poised to significantly influence Federal Reserve policy. Siegel predicts, "The early call is for year-over-year core CPI to decelerate to 3.7%." A deceleration in inflation could signal a favorable environment for equity markets and overall economic stability. 3. Commodity Price Rise: A point of slight concern is the recent uptick in commodity prices, attributed partly to global events. While not immediately alarming, Siegel advises, "This bears watching but is not yet a negative." For businesses, this could mean reassessing cost structures and supply chain strategies. As a business owner, how do you navigate these economic signals? Are you positioned to leverage the strength of the labor market and potentially lower inflation rates? Or are rising commodity prices a looming challenge for your operational costs? Engage in this conversation below, share your insights, and let's explore strategies to thrive in this balanced economic environment. Remember, understanding the macroeconomic trends is key to steering your business through uncertain times. #business #economy #laborreport #inflation #commodityprices #entrepreneurship #smallbusiness #finance

Economists have mixed opinions on whether the U.S. will face a #recession in 2024. This uncertainty makes it even more crucial for investors to remain informed and prepared. This article discusses the likelihood of a recession and the key factors that investors are watching closely. Stay informed by reading more here. 👇

Economists have mixed opinions on whether the U.S. will face a #recession in 2024. This uncertainty makes it even more crucial for investors to remain informed and prepared. This article discusses the likelihood of a recession and the key factors that investors are watching closely. Stay informed by reading more here. 👇

Week Ahead - June 24th, 2024: Key Economic Events to Watch As we approach the final week of June, an array of pivotal economic reports and decisions will shape market sentiments both domestically and internationally. Here’s a breakdown of what to look for: 🇺🇸 United States: PCE Prices, Personal Income & Spending Reports: Keep an eye on these crucial indicators reflecting consumer behavior and inflation trends. Federal Reserve Speeches: Insights from multiple Fed officials will offer clues about future monetary policy directions. Q1 GDP Growth (Final Reading): A clearer picture of the economy's performance in the first quarter. Durable Goods Orders & Home Sales Data: These will gauge the health of manufacturing and housing markets. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Vital for understanding trends in the housing sector. Conference Board Consumer Confidence: An essential indicator of consumer sentiment. Fed's Annual Bank Stress Test Results: Critical for assessing the resilience of major financial institutions. 🌍 Global Highlights: Interest Rate Decisions: Turkey, the Philippines, Sweden, and Mexico will announce their decisions, with significant implications for global markets. Inflation Rates: Data from Canada, Australia, Euro Area, France, Spain, Italy, and Poland will be pivotal in understanding global inflationary pressures. Germany: Watch for the unemployment rate, Ifo Business Climate, and GfK Consumer Confidence reports. Japan: Important metrics such as retail sales, unemployment rate, and industrial production will be released. Australia: Westpac Consumer Confidence data will provide insights into the economic mood Down Under. 📊 As we dissect these reports and decisions, their implications will ripple through economies, potentially influencing everything from market trends to policy formulations. Stay informed and prepared for the shifts ahead. #weekahead #economicindicators #globaleconomy #federalreserve #Inflation #InterestRates #ConsumerConfidence #GDP #financialmarkets #australia #japan #germany #italy #france

Headwinds remain but on an annual basis, we believe the U.S. and global economy is poised for a bit stronger growth this year than originally forecasted last year. Read more in this week's #marketcommentary. https://hubs.ly/Q02kN5j10

Economists have mixed opinions on whether the U.S. will face a #recession in 2024. This uncertainty makes it even more crucial for investors to remain informed and prepared. This article discusses the likelihood of a recession and the key factors that investors are watching closely. Stay informed by reading more here. 👇

As of today, most countries in the world are experiencing Inflation. Understanding what inflation is, its effect and how to handle it can help navigate the second half of the year. Individuals are eager to learn more about financial matters, such as budgeting, investing, and saving. Simultaneously, people are trying to maintain physical and mental well-being, but there are still monetary issues individuals deal with, such as rising costs and minimal wages. As a result, people are putting more of their attention towards developing new skills, improving their money management, and maintaining their health. Strategic thinking is necessary when investing during inflationary times to make sure your money can increase or hold its worth when prices rise. Considering the stocks of businesses with significant pricing power is one useful strategy. These businesses can remain profitable even in rising price situations because they are able to modify their prices to account for inflation. Industries that frequently exhibit this capability include utilities, consumer staples (such as food and household items), and some healthcare providers. Managing inflationary settings requires diversification. Spreading risk and seizing opportunities across several asset classes can be achieved with a well-rounded investment portfolio that consists of a variety of stocks, bonds (including TIPS), real estate, commodities, and maybe dividend-paying stocks. A personal inflation hedge can also be created by investing in oneself via education and skill development. Your capacity to handle financial instability will be strengthened, and potentially increase your income over time. #Inflation #Economy #Investment #Thrivinginthiseconomy #Mattersarising

A growing number of CEOs in our latest CEO Confidence Index poll agree with Fed chairman Jay Powell: The U.S. economy is pretty darn good right now, and it’s likely to get better. Gone are the recession fears we’ve been hearing, replaced—largely—by predictions of falling inflation, solid economic growth, high consumer demand and potential interest-rate cuts. For the fifth consecutive month, the outlook among the 124 CEOs we polled in early March as part of our monthly economic survey was more optimistic than it was in the month prior, this time up 6 percent to a 7 out of 10 (on a 1-10 scale). That’s the highest level for the Index since July, 2021, when Covid-era regulations began to ease. Sentiment about the current state of the economy also grew more positive. The measure climbed for the fourth month in a row, up 4 percent, now at 6.5 out of 10 from 6.3 last month. #staffing #logistics #manufacturing #warehousing #chicago #dallas #toledo #memphis #detroit #indianapolis https://lnkd.in/dbAZasC9