International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Post

In my latest column, I speak about the the recent Indian elections that resulted in an unexpected outcome, with Prime Minister Modi’s BJP failing to secure an outright majority. This surprising verdict, influenced by factors such as rising joblessness, increasing prices, growing inequality, and controversial reforms, particularly impacted BJP's performance in Uttar Pradesh. The Congress Party-led INDIA alliance, spearheaded by Rahul Gandhi, made a surprising comeback, challenging the dominance of BJP and signaling a potential shift in Indian politics. The resurgence of coalition politics has ended BJP's singular hold on power, making it reliant on coalition partners, which introduces potential vulnerabilities. Despite notable economic and infrastructural improvements during Modi's tenure, anti-incumbency sentiments have impacted his popularity. His ambitious campaign slogan for more than 400 seats may have backfired, raising fears among poorer voters and backward caste voters about potential constitutional changes. Modi now faces the challenge of leading a coalition government, requiring a shift from his traditionally domineering style to a more consultative approach to maintain coalition harmony. This new phase of coalition governance might bring a healthier democratic process, reducing Modi's dominance and decentralizing power. Looking ahead, the coalition must address voter concerns and navigate contentious issues while balancing state-specific demands and influential ministry positions. Modi's ability to adapt to these new dynamics will be crucial for his success in the third term, while the opposition must also manage its own internal challenges. Indian politics is set to remain engaging and unpredictable. https://lnkd.in/gDkiip3e

In 2019, despite widespread economic distress and the failure of flagship policy moves like demonetization, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) were re-elected to power, with a bigger victory in parliamentary elections than their 2014 success. In attempting to understand the elements of this outcome, Neelanjan Sircar (Senior Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research and Center for the Advanced Study of India Non-Resident Visiting Scholar) pitched the idea of a “politics of vishwas (belief),” which hinges heavily on voters’ trust in the persona of Modi, assiduously built by his party, rather than a political model that depended more on development outcomes. The BJP’s 2024 campaign speaks directly to this idea, not least because the party’s main pitch is “Modi ki Guarantee”—a set of promises that the prime minister personally makes to prospective voters. In the seventh interview of the CASI Election Conversations 2024, I spoke to Neelanjan Sircar about his research into the roots of this “vishwas” politics, its antecedents in regional party structures emerging in the 1990s, and why you cannot study political centralization without engaging with the concentration of economic power. https://lnkd.in/dzzwZ6VR

Will the NDA come to power in India? It seems likely. It seems like Modi ji will become Prime Minister for the third time. This is a historical moment for an individual. Narendra Modi & Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) But let's talk about the election. "Even after winning, BJP feels like they have lost, and Congress, despite losing, feels like they have won." In my opinion, the election went well. Everyone wanted BJP to win, but there should also be an opposition because it's part of our country's identity in politics. And it happened just like that.But votes were divided in that election. - Due to political ideologies - Because of certain agendas - Because of manipulation or persuasion - And due to hate towards a particular party But there's one thing that has shaped our current scenario. The formation of the government is certain, but there's still some suspense about who it will be. If BJP is 99% confirmed, there's still a 1% chance for Indian National Congress , and we all know that a 1% chance is enough for things to turn around. And anything can happen in politics. There are two faces that can decide: – Who will become the Prime Minister and which party will the Prime Minister be from? These two individuals, JDU Chief (Nitish Kumar) and TDP Chief (Chandrababu Naidu), will decide the answer to this question. 🖕 What do you think, which party will form the government? #india #loksabhaelection #result #primeminister #election #bjp #congress

Narendra Modi took oath for a third consecutive term as Prime Minister, along with 72 ministers, at the Rashtrapati Bhavan. With this milestone, Narendra Modi (73) equalled the feat of Jawaharlal Nehru, who won three straight terms as India's first Prime Minister. While PM Modi has secured another five years in power, this is the first time he will be sharing power after the BJP lost its outright majority in the Lok Sabha after a fiercely fought election. In keeping with 'coalition dharma', the new Council of Ministers will be 72-strong and comprise 11 ministers belonging to NDA partners. The Modi 3.0 team will include 30 Cabinet Ministers, 5 Ministers of State with Independent Charge, and 36 Ministers of State. The portfolios will be announced later. Watch: https://lnkd.in/gR7Fz7Dy | #PrimeMinisterNarendraModi #ModiTakingOathAsPM #Modi3 #MaiNarendraDamodardasModi #RashtrapatiBhavan

At the recent 18th Lok Sabha session, Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered a powerful message: "Our Parliament is the center of hope for 140 crore countrymen." This statement reflects the critical role our Parliament plays in the lives of every Indian citizen. Here’s why this session was a landmark moment for our democracy: 📌 Parliament: The Beacon of Hope Our Parliament stands as a symbol of hope and resilience. It is where the aspirations of 1.4 billion Indians converge, and decisions that shape our nation's future are made. Prime Minister Modi's assertion highlights the Parliament's role in driving the nation's progress and maintaining democratic integrity. 📌 Commitment to Accountability The Prime Minister emphasized the importance of accountability and conduct among the members of Parliament. This is crucial in building and maintaining public trust in our democratic processes. When our leaders are accountable, it ensures that the Parliament functions transparently and effectively, reflecting the true will of the people. 📌 Strengthening Faith in Democracy In an era where global democracies face various challenges, reinforcing the faith of people in parliamentary democracy is paramount. The emphasis on conduct and accountability is a step towards ensuring that democratic institutions work efficiently and earn the trust of the populace. 📌 Historical Milestones India's democratic journey has been marked by numerous significant events, from the adoption of the Constitution to landmark reforms and legislative measures. Each session of the Lok Sabha builds upon this legacy, striving to address the evolving needs and aspirations of the people. 📌 The Road Ahead As we look to the future, the need for continued vigilance, participation, and support of democratic processes becomes even more critical. The vision set forth by the Prime Minister calls for every citizen and leader to commit to the principles of integrity, transparency, and accountability. Conclusion Prime Minister Modi's remarks during the 18th Lok Sabha session serve as a clarion call to strengthen our democracy. They remind us that the power of democracy lies in the trust and hope of the people. By fostering a culture of accountability and integrity, we can ensure that our Parliament remains a true pillar of hope and a beacon for future generations. #IndianDemocracy #Parliament #LokSabha #Leadership #Accountability #Hope #PublicTrust #DemocraticValues

As India's seven-phase general elections near the finish line, I write in the Atlantic Council about a few likely economic priorities of a "Modi 3.0": - Manufacturing value chains - Physical and digital infrastructure, including energy transition - Safeguarding and empowering economically vulnerable groups - India's global profile and leadership.

In a recent campaign speech, Prime Minister Narendra Modi aimed a stinging jibe at the opposition India bloc, warning that if they were to come to power, the country would have "five prime ministers in five years." This provocative statement, delivered with Modi's characteristic flair, has sent shockwaves through the political landscape, sparking heated debate and forcing the opposition to defend their unity and leadership credentials.   At first glance, Modi's comment may seem like typical campaign hyperbole, a scare tactic designed to sow doubt about the opposition's ability to govern effectively. However, beneath the surface, this jibe reveals a strategic calculation and a keen understanding of the opposition's vulnerabilities.   The India bloc, a diverse coalition of regional parties and former rivals united by a shared desire to defeat Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), lacks a clear leader and a unified vision beyond their common enemy. By suggesting that this coalition would devolve into a chaotic scrum for power, Modi is exploiting these weaknesses and stoking fears of instability and gridlock.   Of course, the opposition has not taken this attack lying down. Leaders within the India bloc have accused Modi of fearmongering and attempting to divert attention from his own government's failures. They point to the coalition's track record of working together to defeat the BJP in key state elections and argue that they are united by a shared commitment to democratic values and economic growth.   Some opposition figures have also sought to turn the tables on Modi, reminding voters of his own past as a regional leader known for his autocratic style. They suggest that the real threat to India's stability is not a coalition government, but a continuation of the BJP's divisive policies and attacks on democratic institutions.   Ultimately, the success or failure of this strategy will depend on the voters. Will they be swayed by Modi's warnings of chaos and instability, or will they see through the scare tactics and focus on the issues that matter most to their lives? The answer to this question will determine not just the outcome of the election, but the trajectory of India's democracy in the coming years. https://lnkd.in/ee4sGkMa   #ModiVsOpposition #PoliticalJibe #IndiaElections #LeadershipDebate #CoalitionPolitics #CampaignStrategy #PoliticalAnalysis #DemocracyInIndia

Sanjaya Baru writes: Why Narasimha Rao had to wait for 33 years after 1991 for the Bharat Ratna, writes @SanjayBaru2019 Prime Minister #NarendraModi has devalued the country’s highest national #honour, the Bharat Ratna, by the manner in which he has sought to award it in the last months of his 10-year tenure. He is not the first PM, to be sure, to have politicised a national honour. However, with his weekly announcements in the run-up to an election, he has made the politicisation blatant. Consider the five persons named week after week in this past month — Karpoori Thakur, Lal Krishna Advani, Charan Singh, P V Narasimha Rao and M S Swaminathan. If they were all regarded as worthy of the honour, they could all have been named on the very first Republic Day of the Modi government in 2015. After all, the achievements they are credited with go a long way back. In any case, all five names could have been announced on the eve of this year’s Republic Day. Given the manner in which these names have been announced, it is possible there could be more names in the pre-election pipeline. Why not a Bharat Ratna to Biju Patnaik, N T Rama Rao, H D Deve Gowda and J Jayalalithaa — all leaders of political parties that are potential allies? https://lnkd.in/grpcC5Xe #bharatratna #politics #polls #elections #pollstrategy #electionsstrategy

Choosing the best Prime Minister (PM) in India is a complex process that involves various factors and stakeholders. Here's a simplified overview:- 🔹Elections:- India is a democracy, and citizens vote for their representatives (Members of Parliament, MPs) in the Lok Sabha (Lower House of Parliament). 🔹Political Parties:- MPs belong to various political parties. The party with the majority seats in the Lok Sabha usually gets to form the government and choose the PM. 🔹Party Leadership:- Each party has its own leadership and internal processes to select their PM candidate. 🔹Coalition Government:- If no party has a majority, a coalition government is formed, and the PM is chosen through negotiations among the coalition partners. 🔹Parliamentary Vote:- The elected MPs vote to confirm the PM candidate. 🔹President's Role:- The President of India appoints the PM, based on the majority support in the Lok Sabha. Key qualities and factors considered when choosing a PM in India include:- :-| Leadership skills :-| Political experience :-| Vision for the country :-| Economic and policy expertise :-| Integrity and honesty :-| Ability to build coalitions and consensus :-| Representation of diverse interests and regions Ultimately, the best PM is a matter of public opinion, political negotiations, and the democratic process.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third term, emphasizing the importance of the next five years for the country's progress. He spoke at a BJP national council meeting, stating that winning the next election is crucial for India's development. He highlighted his dedication to improving the lives of Indians and emphasized that his efforts are for the benefit of the country. Additionally, he highlighted his government's accomplishments and foreign policy efforts, expressing confidence in his return as Prime Minister. #AsiaOperations #PoliticsandElections #India Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/g9UUiqvE