Internationale Politik Quarterly’s Post

FRANCE: THE FAR RIGHT HAS NOT DISAPPEARED... FAR FROM IT 1) It is stronger than ever in the French Parliament.It saw its best ever parliamentary results, doubling its share of seats. Marine Le Pen, RN's figurehead, said Sunday night that the results would be a foundation for the 2027 presidential elections. 2) Remember it is leading in the European Parliament . "MEPs from Marine Le Pen’s National Rally are set to join the Patriots for Europe on Monday, making the new far-right group the third-largest in the European Parliament, several people involved in the discussions told POLITICO.The 30 National Rally MEPs, who currently belong to the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID), will become the biggest delegation inside the new Patriots for Europe, which was formed in late June and also includes MEPs from Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán’s party, according to two ID MEPs and an ID official." https://lnkd.in/eBhTT78A 3) Back in France the Far left led by Melanchon did very well in yesterday elections andm as afar as Ukraine is concerned, will back up some of the Far right policies. Melanchon has expressed at best tepid backing for Ukraine, voicing support for Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and voting against a security agreement between Paris and Kyiv earlier this year. https://lnkd.in/eZHYabvM 4) Putin never not mop over a defeat for a long time. Expect a flurry of spectacular attacks on Ukraine along lots of hugging foreign presidents in the weeks to come. .https://lnkd.in/eNzchfJQ

"Swan song" is a fitting way to describe Biden's breeze-through trip to Berlin, to which he's on the way right now. The trip—trimmed down a bit from the original plans, which included a meeting with Ukraine's Zelenskiy and a second leg to Angola, which has separately been rescheduled to December—is largely now about cementing and perhaps Trump-proofing the US-Germany relationship. Germany's been a critical partner for Biden's foreign policy agenda, including perhaps the most pivotal moment in the execution of a monumental prisoner swap with Russia that hinged on the German release of a Russian murderer. At the same time, the two have also struggled to align interests on whether and how to counter China. Aides tell us that Biden and Scholz, when it comes down to it, really like and respect each other. We'll see how that translates to policy outcomes in what's expected to be Biden's final jaunt to Europe as president. Read more, from Jenny Leonard and Michael Nienaber: https://lnkd.in/e4XrkB_5

2024: A watershed year for Germany? POLITICS GERMANY By Emily Gordine January 5, 2024 According to a new survey by public broadcasters, 83% of those polled say they are "concerned" about the current situation in Germany. Only 13% feel optimistic. How will the country deal with war and political tensions both inside and outside Germany, after years of peace and prosperity? https://lnkd.in/eJqi6_r5

The Czech Republic, in coordination with Belgium and other European countries, identified Viktor Medvedchuk as the leader of a significant Russian influence operation focused on manipulating the European Parliament and public opinion. Jan Lipavsky, the Czech Foreign Minister, emphasized that Medvedchuk, operating from Russia, sought to spread pro-Russian narratives undermining Ukraine's sovereignty and infiltrating the European legislative body. The Czech Republic's exposure of these activities, described by German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser as a significant blow against the Russian propaganda apparatus, underscores the scale and sophistication of Russia's efforts to destabilize European democracies. The revelations are critical as the European Union prepares for significant electoral challenges amid ongoing Russian aggression. Read the brief #CzechIntelligence, #BelgianIntelligence, #SecurityCommandCenter, #EuropeanMap, #NetworkDiagrams, #DataAnalysis, #Collaboration, #Technology, #Counterintelligence, #InfluenceOperations

Putin meets with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Kremlin On June 2, Viktor Orban visited Kiev as the leader of the European Council presidency nation, where he met with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky MOSCOW, July 5/ Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the Kremlin. Last time, the two politicians met in October, 2023, at the Belt and Road forum in China. For the next six months, Hungary will chair the European Council. On June 2, Orban visited Kiev as the leader of a European Council presiding nation, where he met with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. Orban offered Zelensky conditions for a ceasefire in Ukraine, but Zelensky rejected them, according to his office. The prime minister himself explained that he represented the European continent, and peace is in its best interest, but it could only be achieved through talks with Russia. Previously, Kiev legally prohibited such talks under Zelensky’s own decree. The Hungarian government has repeatedly stated that communication channels with Russia must remain open, including in order to find a way to settle the Ukrainian crisis. Meanwhile, in regards to his talks today, Orban noted that he came in his personal capacity, not as a representative of the European Union. Budapest has been criticized and even pressured, as Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov pointed out, by the EU for its excessive independence. Meanwhile, the Kremlin representative characterized Orban as a politician, who can defend the interests of his country rather firmly. #business #finance #financialservices

Just over a week ago, the Orbán government took over the rotating presidency of the EU. Political Capital has analysed this period in our latest article, the main points of which are as follows: • The Hungarian EU Presidency is focused on trolling instead of loyal cooperation. • Orbán’s own group in the European Parliament and the so-called “peace mission” are partly a spectacle and a smokescreen for the domestic audience. • Patriots for Europe = ID 2.0 - more potent, AfD-free, but still pro-Kremlin and far-right. • The so-called "peace mission": reality-distorting trolling to weaken the EU while winking at Trump. • Against the national interests of Hungary and its allies. Our analysis is available here: https://lnkd.in/d2UpZdxZ

#Putin’s Fifth Term Starts Amid War, Censorship, Repression and Media Control The 71-year-old Russian leader, who has been in power since May 2000, was re-elected for another six-year term in March in elections where he faced no opposition. 👁️Kyiv Post https://lnkd.in/gvr78SQ8 #VladimirPutin starts his fifth presidential term buoyed by minor reported battlefield successes in #Ukraine and dubious claims of sustained economic growth, despite Western #sanctions. In his Tuesday, May 7 acceptance speech at the Grand #Kremlin Palace, #Putin emphasized the need for #Russia's state system to be flexible while ensuring the “stability of development.” He hailed his recent election victory as the “consolidated will of millions” and a “colossal force.” “The Russian authorities are attempting to give the entire world and its own citizens the #illusionoflegality for the nearly lifelong stay in power of a person who has turned the #RussianFederation into an #aggressorstate and the #rulingregime into a #dictatorship,” Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated. The 71-year-old Kremlin chief has ruled Russia since the turn of the century, securing a fresh six-year mandate in March after winning #presidentialelections devoid of all opposition. Despite criticism from the #West about lack of fairness and freedom in Russia's elections, Putin focused on the legitimacy of his victory, stating that it reaffirmed the country's chosen path amid “challenging times.” The #EuropeanParliament deemed the election results #illegitimate and #undemocratic, calling on #EU countries to reject Putin as an #illegalpresident. The #US, #UK and #Canada along with most EU countries refused to send representatives, although #Hungary, #Slovakia #Greece, #Cyprus, #Malta and most surprisingly #France did attend – saying they saw the event as a chance to keep lines of communication with the Kremlin open. The Parliamentary Assembly of the #CouncilofEurope (#PACE) had already recognized Russia as a dictatorship and called on all Council of Europe states not to recognize him at the end of his last term. The ceremony concluded with a performance of “Hail” from Mikhail Glinka's opera “Life for the Tsar” and a salute from 76mm ZIS-3 field guns.😂😂😂

Another misleading headline... the espionage in question has probably been going on for years, or even decades. Development of these assets is a very long process, and it's not something that can be surged. So, their has been no "spike" in Chineese and Russian espionage in Germany, there has only been a spike in arrests. The real story is that the German Counter Intelligence services are only now starting to dismantle these networks. I believe the real question should be "why now?" Germany has been a soft target for a very long time, and I would suspect that German CI knew these networks existed... and of their connections to the AfD. What political decision has been made to go after these networks now, and can similar action be expected against the AfD for its part in this activity? https://lnkd.in/dWQpRqq9

I’m not sure you have to be an ‘apologist’ or ‘excuser’ of Putin to advance this viewpoint. Given the history of 20th century Russia, it’s not hard to see if you’re sitting on that side of the divide, how the creeping proximity of the liberal West, up to one’s borders in places, presents a rather different perspective than the one the EU might have of itself. Lazy to simply lambast an uncomfortable argument. All tuition in the art of foreign policy tells you to think how your opponent will perceive your actions. It doesn’t equate to spineless acceptance of the other side, but it does mean ruthless analysis of likely consequences. The EU and the rest fell short of that and Ukraine is paying the price. One of my favourite textbooks growing up was Robert Jervis’s Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Oodles of examples there of how failures to understand the other side have characterised most conflicts in history.

Be prepared for the next move of your enemy. There will be scores of elections around the democratic world in 2024, which means there will be periods of transition. We can assume that Putin, on whose watch Russian casualties alone are about to pass the mark of 400,000, will propose some sort of truce and "negotiations". Expect a carefully prepared, well-timed PR stunt, with supporters jumping in worldwide. Who doesn't want to stop the carnage, after all? It is very important that the West as well be ready and prepared for that moment. No time to imrpovise then, because that would only play into Putin's hand. Read FT columnist Ivan Krastev's take on this (caps by me): "Ultimately, Ukrainians will decide when and how to negotiate. But when Moscow advocates talks, it is important for western leaders to be clear about what is NOT negotiable when it comes to the future of both Ukraine and Europe. And what, in my view, should be non-negotiable is not so much Ukraine’s complete territorial integrity as its democratic and pro-western orientation. (...) If Putin’s offer is, 'if you really want to stop fighting, you need to stop supplying weapons', the western counter-offer should be, 'if you really plan to occupy Ukrainian land, you need to accept that Ukraine will be a NATO member' — as West Germany was during the cold war. It is time for the West German scenario to be put on the table." Simply put, calling Putin's bluff. #slavaukraini 💙 💛 Marijn Markus Victoria Stolpnik-Gubko Christine Khariv Yana Rudenko Michał Mozoła Beata Samson Hannes Fassold Lucia Morrone