INVERLINK’s Post

International trade is projected to see a modestic growth during 2024. The international trade reflects the global economic condition directly. Trade volumes vary in accordance with the global economic cycles of expansion and contraction, offering insightful indicators of macroeconomic situations. Over the past five years, trade has shown notable volatility. Following the sharp decline in global trade volumes in 2020 due to the Covid pandemic shock, there was a strong rebound in 2021, significantly contributing to the post-pandemic recovery. However, 2022 witnessed a significant slowdown in trade activity amidst challenging conditions of rising interest rates, high inflation, and increasing protectionism. Trade growth in 2023 was even more disappointing, with preliminary estimates suggesting a contraction of 0.3%. Over the past 40 years, a contraction in trade has only been observed in 2009 following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and in 2020 due to the Covid pandemic. #economy #international trade

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The US dollar holds a dominant role in international trade and finance. Emerging markets are vulnerable to exchange rate risk and other external trends due to their dependence on US dollar financing. Discover more about potential risks to the global economy in EIU’s latest report: http://econgrp.co/Ch Gain in-depth insight into the global economic landscape with the EIU's Country Analysis service. The analysis and data featured in our latest report come from this integrated solution, covering nearly 200 countries and monitoring risks affecting business operations and strategies worldwide. Request a bespoke demonstration today: http://econgrp.co/Cg #exchangerates #emergingmarkets

An array of forces are driving trade fragmentation—and the #economic costs could be significant. The IMF projects that if the global economy were to fragment into two blocs, global losses could be staggering—between 2.5 to 7 percent of #GDP. For more insights on global trade and other macro trends, click here. https://lnkd.in/d8v2SVEZ

#WorldTradeMonth continues with more interesting facts! 🌐📈 #DidYouKnow? The trade services sector is a powerhouse in the global economy. According to the 2023 study, "Trade in Services for Development" by World Trade Organization and The World Bank this sector creates 50% of global jobs and makes up two-thirds of the world's GDP. This is more than agriculture and industry combined, demonstrating how crucial trade services are for global economic prosperity and stability. Read the full report: https://hubs.ly/Q02xNJtz0

Recommended reading. Geoeconomic Fragmentation: The Economic Risks from a Fractured World Economy. The world is facing the risk of fragmentation, with early signs taking root. The number of trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) restrictions has increased three-fold since 2018. There is evidence that trade patterns are shifting, as firms respond to growing policy uncertainty and look for ways to insulate their supply chains from geopolitical risks. FDI is also increasingly concentrated among geopolitically aligned countries. https://lnkd.in/dxg9XEm9

🌍𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗯𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟯𝟮: 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗶𝘁𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 Over the next decade, global trade will be characterised by shifts in geopolitics, transforming policies, market stability, and supply chains. Here are the main scenarios forecasted by 2032 according to BCG: 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮: U.S. trade with Canada and Mexico is forecast to increase by $466 billion while trade between the U.S. and China will drop by $197 billion. 𝗔𝘀𝗶𝗮: China and Southeast Asia is expected to grow by an impressive $616 billion and a surge in trade with Japan and South Korea is forecasted. 𝗕𝗥𝗜𝗖𝗦+: Russia’s trade with the EU will fall by $222 billion by 2032 compared with 2022, however its trade with China and India will grow by $134 billion and $26 billion. To stay competitive, companies that operate internationally should strengthen their global credit and geopolitical decision-making to enhance their risk capabilities. In Wiserfunding we empower export credit agencies to navigate complexities with confidence, offering a comprehensive understanding of creditworthiness 𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝗯𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀. 🔗 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻 𝗶𝗻-𝗱𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗵 𝗪𝗶𝘀𝗲𝗿𝗳𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗕𝗖𝗚 𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗹𝗲 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲: https://lnkd.in/e8ukR4ms   #GlobalTrade #ExportCredit #ECAs #Wiserfunding #TradeFinance #CreditRisk #SouthSouthTrade #Geopolitics #USmarket #BRICS #WTO

The global trade recovery is now a fact. A diffusion index of the world’s largest exporters has recovered sharply since Q4, after being deeply in contractionary territory for much of last year. Who wins? Economic growth and corporate profits in emerging markets, which tend to be more trade-sensitive than their DM counterparts. 

International Monetary Fund forecasts global economy to grow 3.2% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025 While global trade has firmed up, spurred by strong Asian exports, especially in the technology sector, inflationary pressures remain a challenge 👉Details — https://lnkd.in/ddczEWS4 #IMFForecast #GlobalEconomy #EconomicGrowth #Inflation #GlobalTrade #AsianExports #TechSector #EconomicOutlook #IMF2024 #EconomicTrends