Invesco EMEA’s Post

With Donald Trump securing the presidency and the Republicans gaining control of Congress – we’re looking at a significant impact on the US economy and potential ripple effects across global markets. Considerations: 1. Tariff Strategy – Proposed tariffs (10% on all imports, 60% on Chinese goods) is expected to hit global trade hard, especially in Canada, Mexico, and China. 2. Fiscal Spending: With the proposed tax cuts and spending proposals, the US deficit could hit unprecedented levels, impacting US growth and inflation. 3. Dollar Outlook - The dollar is expected to strengthen with the DXY potentially return to the 2022 highs. Key Takeaway: With inflationary pressures and shifting trade dynamics, we’re entering a period of volatility and opportunities in the economic landscape. #USElection2024 #EconomicOutlook #Dollar

Trump, tariffs and treasuries – these topics were front and centre of this week’s interview between Deutsche Bank global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting and CNBC Asia. “If yields go higher, there could be some unwinding of the Trump trade,” Nolting said. Speaking from the #Singapore studio, Nolting said investors needs to look at monetary conditions, including U.S. inflation risks, the impact of tariffs, and rising treasury yields. “The rotation trade is very important to watch this year. We could see reallocation from US to Asia as the growth region. We still like Japan, but don’t write off China. If you see stabilisation and more fiscal policy in the second half, China could be interesting,” he added. Watch the interview: http://deu.ba/6046fi5Lg #NoltingViews #CIOinsight #wealthmanagement #emergingmarkets (If invested, your capital may be at risk)

Catch Rahul Kanwal, Executive Director, Business Today in this exclusive conversation with Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF. In this session she delves into the implications of President Donald Trump’s economic policies on global growth. With a focus on tariffs, trade, tax cuts, and financial deregulation, she highlights the complex dynamics of U.S. policies and their ripple effects across the world. From the potential inflationary effects of tariffs to the opportunities posed by deregulation and permanent tax cuts, Gopinath provides a nuanced analysis of the risks and opportunities these measures bring. As global growth slows, this discussion unpacks whether Trump’s economic agenda will act as a catalyst or a challenge for the global economy. A must-watch for insights into the intersection of U.S. policy and global economic trends. Watch: https://lnkd.in/gkdT9NPz | #WEF2025 #GlobalGrowth #TradePolicy #DavosInsights Rahul Kanwal | Gita Gopinath | Sridhar Babu Duddilla

What do you think will happen in 2025 re world trade and tariffs? Do you think the agenda being played in the media is just posturing in advance or that we are headed towards trade wars Visualizing the Interconnections US Tariff Regime ↓ Retaliatory Tariffs ↓ Reduced Corporate Revenues & Profits ↓ Lower Share Prices & Investor Confidence Dumping Treasuries ↓ Rising Treasury Yields ↓ Higher US Borrowing Costs & Debt Servicing ↓ Weaker USD → Rising Import Costs ↓ Domestic Inflation & Reduced Consumer Spending Shift Away from Dollar as Reserve Currency ↓ Decreased Demand for US Financial Assets ↓ Volatile Capital Markets & Systemic Financial Risks The US tariff regime and subsequent global reactions, especially a shift away from the dollar, could severely impact the US economy. The interdependencies between trade, currency, and capital markets create a feedback loop, amplifying negative effects on government borrowing, corporate performance, and the broader financial system. This would likely reduce the US's economic resilience and global influence.

How will Trump’s fiscal policies and trade tariffs shape US fixed income markets?   Charudatta Shende and Nicolas Jullien, CFA outline the expected upward pressure on inflation and higher growth scenarios. Learn how these changes could influence your investment strategy and what risks to watch for in this evolving landscape.   Watch the key takeaways here: 🔗 https://lnkd.in/eRy7ryaW   Together we continue #Investing4Tomorrow #USMarkets #Inflation #InvestmentStrategy #InterestRates

With talks of potential tariffs on Canadian goods by the U.S., economic uncertainty is on the rise. Such measures can disrupt trade and impact key sectors, potentially leading to market volatility. This underscores the importance of a diversified investment portfolio to help weather economic shifts. By spreading investments across various countries, industries and regions, you can reduce risk and protect your financial future. Speak with your Advisor today to review your portfolio and ensure you're prepared for any market changes ahead. Diversification isn’t just smart—it’s essential. #Investmentshashtag #Investing #MutualFunds #InvestmentAdvice #RetirementPlanning

Potential Economic Uncertainty Predicted for 2025 as a Result of Tariffs Imposed by Trump: Plan your financial future. In the grand theatre of global economics, uncertainties hover over U.S. policies, potentially decelerating worldwide growth slightly by 2025, as noted by prominent brokerages. President-elect Donald Trump’s anticipated tariffs may stir volatility across global markets. This situation could invigorate inflationary pressures, thereby curtailing central banks’ abilities to relax monetary policies, reports suggest. U.S. Federal Reserve’s […] The post Potential Economic Uncertainty Predicted for 2025 as a Result of Tariffs Imposed by Trump appeared first on Kingston Global Tokyo Japan. #GlobalEconomy

Aggressive tariff rises under a possible second Trump presidency would likely result in a reduction in US and global output in comparison to an illustrative baseline scenario with no further increases. We have estimated the impact on the world economy of a renewed trade war by conducting a series of macroeconomic simulation scenarios using the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model. In scenarios where the US lifts tariffs aggressively, the US would see short-term hits to the level of GDP of 0.4%-0.8%. If the US’s trading partners retaliate with tariff rises of their own, the modelled impact would be larger – up to 1.1% – and more persistent. For the US’s trading partners, the hypothetical impact is greater in scenarios with retaliation, with China, and particularly Canada and Mexico seeing the largest hits to GDP (averaging 1.8% in the worst-case scenario). The latter results reflect large-scale trade linkages with the US relative to Canadian and Mexican GDP. For a free-to-air summary from colleagues Brian Coulton and Alex Muscatelli, see https://lnkd.in/e3MqrgA2. For the full scenario analysis, subscribers can visit https://lnkd.in/eiNG-mHY #fitchoncredit #tradewars #tariffpolicy #macro #globaltrade

US growth momentum is currently strong, we continue to believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50bps in 2025, and we see a limited overall macroeconomic impact from an effective tariff rate of 30% on direct imports from China

US growth momentum is currently strong, we continue to believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50bps in 2025, and we see a limited overall macroeconomic impact from an effective tariff rate of 30% on direct imports from China