INVEST’s Post

more good news from the economic front. while the stock market isn't the absolute best indicator of a sound economy, it does a reasonable job of displaying attitudes of the investing segment of business. this rise also deflates many of the rw arguments about 401K balances, etc. all boats are being floated in those sectors that provide these types of "retirement" plans. enjoy the read. the DJIA.."closed above 40,000 for the first time in history, ending the day at 40,003.59. This extraordinary performance means investors have confidence the Federal Reserve will get inflation under control without throwing the country into a recession. It is a triumphant vindication of the financial policies advanced by President Joe Biden and Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen. In comparison to the breathless coverage of the stock market during Trump’s administration, this milestone is getting very little coverage. Under Trump, the stock market had the highest annualized gain of any Republican president since Calvin Coolidge in the 1920s, but at 11.8%, that annualized gain was lower than the annualized return under Democratic presidents Barack Obama (12.1%) and Bill Clinton (15.9%). Biden’s annualized return passed Trump’s in April 2024, as well. " https://lnkd.in/djv7Ucj4

Presidents get a lot of the blame and take a lot of the credit for stock market performance while in office. However, a president's ability to impact the economy and markets is generally indirect and marginal. That said, there are some ways that the president can affect the economy and the market. Continue reading... #FinancialAdvisor #GenevaIL #Chicago

Presidents get a lot of the blame and take a lot of the credit for stock market performance while in office. However, a president's ability to impact the economy and markets is generally indirect and marginal. That said, there are some ways that the president can affect the economy and the market. Continue reading... #FinancialAdvisor #GenevaIL #Chicago

Key Takeaways: - In recent weeks, we have seen rotations in both equity markets and politics. In stock markets, the mega-cap technology names, which had been darlings of investors for most of this year, have lagged more recently. Value and cyclical parts of the market, including small- and mid-cap stocks, have outperformed in recent weeks. We believe this rotation has legs, perhaps not without bumps along the way. And more broadly, we see the theme of the broadening of market leadership (in both tech and nontech sectors) continuing in the back half of the year. - In politics, the historic announcement of President Biden to exit the race has shifted the election dynamics. Vice President Kamala Harris, who is poised to become the Democratic nominee, has narrowed the gap between her and frontrunner former President Donald Trump. While it is early days still, this rotation has added uncertainty to the election outcome, and we may see market volatility in the weeks ahead of the November election. However, history has showed us that volatility ahead of election day is common and tends to subside after the election is over. - More broadly, we continue to see a favorable backdrop for equity investors. Economic growth is cooling but positive, inflation is easing, and the Fed looks poised to lower interest rates in the back half of the year. In this environment, we believe investors can use volatility, whether from market or political rotations, as an opportunity to diversify or add to investment portfolios. For the full breakdown click the link below. https://bit.ly/3LK6z7d

🤔History Offers an Ominous Warning Following President-Elect Donald Trump's Victory -- and the Stock Market May Pay the Price Over the last 111 years, there have been 10 Republicans in the Oval Office and nine Democrats. Four of the nine Democrats to hold America's highest office did not oversee a recession that began under their tenure (key phrase!). This figure makes the logical assumption that President Joe Biden won't see a recession declared during his final six weeks in office, which would make him the fourth Democratic president to avoid a recession. On the other end of the spectrum, Republican presidents have overseen 13 recessions since 1913, with every single GOP chief contending with a recession during their tenure. Donald Trump was the latest addition to this lengthy list due to the COVID-19 pandemic-driven recession. While nothing is guaranteed, every Republican president for more than a century overseeing a recession is a worrisome correlation for Wall Street. Even though stocks and the U.S. economy aren't tethered at the hip, economic contractions would be expected to adversely impact corporate earnings. What's more, a study from Bank of America Global Research found that, between 1927 and March 2023, two-thirds of peak-to-trough drawdowns in the S&P 500 occurred during, not prior to, recessions being declared. In plainer English, stocks perform poorly when recessions occur. Ominous warnings are mounting for the U.S. economy and stock market As Donald Trump readies to take office for his second term, he's going to inherit a challenging set of circumstances. While the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite have all galloped to multiple record-closing highs in the wake of Election Day, ominous warnings for the U.S. economy and Wall Street are beginning to mount.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE - May 16, 2024 / WhiteHouse Talking Points - Under Joe Biden, Dow Crosses 40,000, Markets Set Record Highs Today, the Dow hit 40,000 points and the S&P and Nasdaq have also hit record highs, just another example of how President Biden is strengthening our economy and helping to secure the retirement of millions of Americans across the country. But while Americans are celebrating, Donald Trump is not – he’s said repeatedly he wants to see the economy crash, hurting millions of Americans, in order to advance his own political prospects. Biden-Harris 2024 Communications Director Michael Tyler released the following statement on the Dow’s record performance: “Toughest news yet for the one guy in America rooting for the economy to crash because he thinks it’ll help him politically. Donald Trump promised the stock market would crash if Joe Biden was elected. Instead, Joe Biden has broken economic records across the board – from record small business growth to historically low unemployment and now a new high for the Dow, strengthening Americans’ retirement plans. “Now the choice is clear: Either President Biden continues to deliver an economy that works for working families or we give the keys back to Donald Trump, who tanked the economy and left a mess for President Biden to clean up and get America back on track. If Trump returns to power, he will tilt our economy to benefit the super wealthy, cut Social Security and Medicare, and leave working families behind – just like he did before he lost to Joe Biden.” Donald Trump is Rooting for the Economy to Fail, While President Biden is Growing the Middle Class: Trump said the stock market would crash if Biden won in 2020. This obviously has not happened. Trump previously said that he believed the stock market is an indicator of a thriving economy. Trump is openly rooting against the economy on the campaign trail. Trump has the worst jobs record of any President in modern U.S. history. Under President Biden, America has created 15 million new jobs. The United States economy is growing faster than any large advanced country in the world. The U.S. unemployment rate has been below 4% for 27 straight months – the longest stretch since the late 1960s. Food prices are falling and inflation is easing. ###

Here are the stock market returns during each U.S. president’s term starting with Ronald Reagan: 1. Ronald Reagan (1981-1989): +117% Reagan’s two terms saw a significant economic recovery, driven by lower taxes, deregulation, and the beginning of the technology boom. 2. George H. W. Bush (1989-1993): +51% The market experienced moderate gains during Bush’s term, despite the Gulf War and a mild recession in the early 1990s. 3. Bill Clinton (1993-2001): +210% Clinton’s presidency coincided with one of the greatest bull markets in U.S. history, fueled by the dot-com boom and economic expansion. 4. George W. Bush (2001-2009): -40% Bush’s two terms were marked by the dot-com bust, the September 11 attacks, and the Great Recession, leading to a significant market decline. 5. Barack Obama (2009-2017): +182% Obama oversaw a strong market recovery from the financial crisis, aided by quantitative easing and low-interest rates. 6. Donald Trump (2017-2021): +67% The market saw strong gains during Trump’s term, driven by corporate tax cuts and deregulation. The COVID-19 pandemic led to a brief market crash, but it recovered quickly. 7. Joe Biden (2021-present): +57% approximately Biden’s term has seen market volatility due to inflation concerns, interest rate hikes, and economic uncertainty, though overall returns have been positive.

Here are the stock market returns during each U.S. president’s term starting with Ronald Reagan: 1. Ronald Reagan (1981-1989): +117% Reagan’s two terms saw a significant economic recovery, driven by lower taxes, deregulation, and the beginning of the technology boom. 2. George H. W. Bush (1989-1993): +51% The market experienced moderate gains during Bush’s term, despite the Gulf War and a mild recession in the early 1990s. 3. Bill Clinton (1993-2001): +210% Clinton’s presidency coincided with one of the greatest bull markets in U.S. history, fueled by the dot-com boom and economic expansion. 4. George W. Bush (2001-2009): -40% Bush’s two terms were marked by the dot-com bust, the September 11 attacks, and the Great Recession, leading to a significant market decline. 5. Barack Obama (2009-2017): +182% Obama oversaw a strong market recovery from the financial crisis, aided by quantitative easing and low-interest rates. 6. Donald Trump (2017-2021): +67% The market saw strong gains during Trump’s term, driven by corporate tax cuts and deregulation. The COVID-19 pandemic led to a brief market crash, but it recovered quickly. 7. Joe Biden (2021-present): +57% approximately Biden’s term has seen market volatility due to inflation concerns, interest rate hikes, and economic uncertainty, though overall returns have been positive.

"Looking past Inauguration Day, stocks typically struggle. The chart below reveals how the S&P 500 Index has historically performed following a presidential election and Inauguration Day. The data for the green line goes all the way back to 1932, so it gives us a good macro view. As you can see, we could be in for a bumpy few months. This makes sense, as investors will be reacting to Trump's actions, not just promises on the campaign trail. Of course, Trump is not the typical president. He's wildly outspoken. And unlike a lot of politicians, he does make drastic changes. In his first term, Trump delivered on the biggest corporate tax cuts in our nation's history, cracked down on international trade, and eliminated a bunch of environmental regulations. Stocks did very well with him at the helm. Even though markets have historically struggled following Inauguration Day, they shot up in the weeks and months after Trump took office in 2016. I believe we could see something similar this time around, too... As I've said before, I'm bullish on the markets in 2025. There are some troubles brewing in the economy, but sentiment is high. A lot of folks want to see change, and I think that's just what they'll get under Trump. So that could push sentiment even higher. My guess is that market performance will more closely resemble early 2016 than the historical median," writes Jeff Havenstein.

𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐎𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐦 𝐨𝐫 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐳𝐲? The S&P 500 has hit a remarkable 53 records this year, and the Russell 2000 has outpaced, nearly doubling the S&P’s gains over the past two weeks. Trump’s return to office has reignited bullish sentiment, driven by expectations of lower corporate taxes, looser regulations, and protectionist trade policies. While small caps have rallied on hopes of benefiting from Trump’s “America First” agenda, their heavy reliance on debt financing leaves them exposed as the Fed slows the pace of rate cuts. Sectors like semiconductors, tied to global supply chains, are particularly vulnerable to trade tensions. According to a recent article from Bloomberg, retail investors are embracing risk by pushing household equity holdings to record levels, fuelling concerns of a speculative bubble. As Richard Bernstein, CEO & CIO at our Partner, Richard Bernstein Advisors, warns in the article: “𝘈𝘯𝘺𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬𝘴 𝘸𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘢 𝘩𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘭𝘺 𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘥, 𝘪𝘧 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘣𝘶𝘣𝘣𝘭𝘦, 𝘪𝘴𝘯’𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘱𝘢𝘺𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯.” This echoes the broader question – how long can optimism defy fundamentals? While some optimism is warranted – broader market leadership is emerging, and valuations, though elevated, remain below dot-com bubble extremes – the parallels to past speculative periods are hard to ignore. However, history shows that exuberance without solid fundamentals can be dangerous. At iM Global Partner, our focus is clear: navigating these dynamics with a disciplined, fundamentals-first approach. Balancing opportunity with risk is key, especially in speculative periods. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/eDhjZFjB #AssetManagement #InvestmentManagement #Markets #Strategy #PeoplePerformance