James W.’s Post

📌 BRICS expansion offers opportunity to boost African trade, say experts The expansion of the BRICS bloc offers African countries an opportunity to trade value-added and intermediate goods with the world and move away from the trade in raw commodities, according to experts at a BRICS roundtable. In January Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates joined the emerging markets economic bloc, originally comprised in 2006 of founding members Brazil, Russia, India and China; South Africa joined in 2010. The new formation, dubbed BRICS+, accounts for around 40% of crude oil production and exports, one-quarter of global GDP, two-fifths of global trade in goods, and nearly half of the world’s population, according to the Boston Consulting Group (BCG). Read the full news 📌 https://lnkd.in/gwB6_P9e #EHSafrica #Logisitics #EHS #SupplyChain #WeLoveAfrica #AfricaLogistics #supplychain #logisticsolutions

"According to the IMF, growth in many economies in the Middle East is slowing due to tighter policies, oil production cuts, geopolitical tensions, and other domestic challenges. The organization recently lowered the real GDP growth forecast for the region to 2.0% for 2023, compared to the 3.3% projected in April 2023." #middleeast #northafrica #trade #mena #import #export #imf #gdp

Africa could benefit from the expansion of the #BRICS to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, experts told a roundtable in Nairobi. Discover how Africa can thrive in the global economy with BRICS+

Armenia was the fourth fastest-growing economy in the world last year (8.7 percent in 2023), but the heady pace of expansion slowed down to around 5-6 percent YoY by Sep/Oct last year when a sudden surge of economic activity resulted in much accelerated growth. Indeed, over Nov-Feb GDP growth has averaged about 12 percent YoY, with the Feb number alone impressing even more at 16.3 percent YoY. What is behind this performance? We track it down to an exponential increase in diamond trade over the axis of Russia-Armenia-UAE/Hong Kong, which, in turn, is related to EU/G7 sanctions on the import of Russian diamonds. The sanctions were formally voted upon in Dec, but news about them broke in Nov, which led to the creation of this meandering route of delivering Russian diamonds to other countries. While the direct ban on imports came into force from Jan 1st, the indirect one via third countries became operational from Mar 1st, although it will be phased in to a full ban over the next six months. We present a detailed picture of diamond trading between Russia, Armenia, UAE/Hong Kong and calculate that this type of economic activity contributed 2.8 percent to 2023 GDP growth and a hefty 7 percent to the 13.5 percent GDP growth posted in the first two months of 2024. While we anticipate that the Mar trade data (to be released in May) will start showing an appreciable decline in this trade, 2024 GDP growth will clearly be facing upside risks to our current 6.0 percent forecast.

Did you know that the strategic dynamics of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are redefining global trade flows? With a strategic location that bridges continents, vast energy reserves that fuel industries, robust economies that drive growth, and complex political dynamics that influence global relationships, MENA is pivotal in global markets. 📊 This insightful graphic, grounded in data from the IMF as of October 2023, unravels the intricate web of top trading partners engaged with the MENA nations. A staggering $171 billion worth of goods flowed from China to MENA in 2022 alone, underscoring the Asian giant's import dominance in the region. India emerges as another cornerstone, with a substantial $50 billion in imports from the UAE, where petroleum products comprise a significant portion. 🇮🇹 Italy's trade footprint is also noteworthy, especially with its $28 billion acquisition primarily of petroleum from Algeria and Libya. The trade winds are shifting with MENA countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, and the UAE joining the BRICS bloc, integrating over one trillion dollars in exports into this emerging market powerhouse. 📉 Yet, the IMF tempers the fervor with a cautionary note: MENA's economic growth is decelerating amidst tightening policies, oil production cuts, and geopolitical tensions. The forecast for 2023 has been adjusted to a modest 2.0% growth. What impact do you think these evolving trade relationships and economic forecasts will have on global markets and investment strategies? #intelligence #futurism #education #economics Excellent graphic by Visual Capitalist

In this post, we focus on how important #trade with countries outside the region is for each Med country, given the size of their economy. #Slovenia is the Med country that records the highest volume of trade in goods with countries outside the region relative to its #GDP. Compared to other countries in the #Mediterranean region, trade with non-Med countries is less important for countries at the lower end of the chart, given the size of their economies. Note: Analysis produced by Alma Economics based on the most recent data from the UN Comtrade and The World Bank databases. Values are shown for 2022, as a percentage of GDP and include trade only for goods. Due to a lack of available data, the latest available figures were used for #Libya (2019). #Syria and #Algeria were excluded from this analysis due to the unavailability of recent UN Comtrade data. For more information and to explore data relating to the Mediterranean, visit www.mgi.online

Sub-Saharan African nations with heavy reliance on commodity exports urged to address macroeconomic imbalances Nigeria, South Sudan, and Angola currently facing high inflation and economic challenges due to high reliance on oil Growth rates of commodity-dependent economies sluggish compared to more diversified economies in the region

The Israel-Iran conflict, or any escalation in tensions between the two countries, could have indirect impacts on the Indian economy. Here are some potential areas that could be affected: 1).Oil Prices: India imports a significant amount of its oil, and any conflict in the Middle East, especially involving key oil-producing countries like Iran, could lead to disruptions in oil supply and a rise in oil prices. This would increase India's import bill and potentially fuel inflation. 2).Trade: India has trade relationships with both Israel and Iran, though they are not major trading partners. Any disruption in trade with these countries could affect specific industries or sectors. 3).Regional Stability: A prolonged conflict could affect regional stability in the Middle East, which may impact global markets, including India. Uncertainty could lead to volatility in the stock market and currency markets. 4).Energy Security: Disruptions in oil supply from the Middle East can threaten India's energy security, given its heavy dependence on oil imports from the region. 5).Geopolitical Alliances: India has strategic partnerships with both Israel and Iran. An intensification of conflict could pressure India to balance its foreign relations with these countries, affecting its strategic interests. 6).Investment: Uncertainty and instability in the region might impact investor confidence, which could affect foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into India. Overall, the extent of the impact would depend on the duration and intensity of the conflict, as well as how quickly it can be resolved. #india #economy #iran #israel #unitedstate #import #export #oilprices #investment #energy #trade #stockmarket #globaleconomy #fdi

Intra-African Trade Reaches $192.2 billion In 2023: Afreximbank Report The #African Trade Report 2024, titled "Climate Implications of the #AfCFTA Implementation" and published by African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), indicates that trade within #Africa reached $192.2 billion in 2023, reflecting a 3.2% increase from the remarkable 10.9% growth observed in 2022. This resilience in inter-African trade occurred despite a global economic slowdown and various challenges faced by several nations. Furthermore, Africa's share of total intra-continental trade rose to 14.9%, up from 13.6% in 2022. This positive trend can be attributed to collaborative efforts among countries across the continent, particularly through the ongoing implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), aimed at enhancing trade within Africa. The report notes that while the overall figures are promising, they conceal significant regional variations. "#SouthernAfrica, with an impressive trade growth rate of 41.1% with its neighbouring countries, has solidified its status as the foremost contributor to intra-African trade in 2023," the report states. Additionally, #WestAfrica has strengthened its position as the second-largest intra-African trading sub region, representing 25.7% of total intra-African trade. "#EastAfrica has emerged as the third-largest intra-African trading sub region, contributing 14.1%. #NorthAfrica and #CentralAfrica accounted for approximately 12.4% and 6.6%, respectively, of total intra-African trade," the report further elaborates. Image Credit: Business Insider Africa #Africa #Trade #AfricanEconomy #Growth #Development #UpwardAfrica #Commerce #Business