Jared Jones’ Post

Big market news is the S&P 500 over 5,000. If you compare the S&P 500 vs the S&P 500 equal weight the performance is dramatically different. The "market" is being driven by a handful of stocks. Over 50% of stocks are actually down since March 2022. Are those winners going to keep going up or will we revert to the mean and the value is in the equal weight? Comment below with your opinion.

What do you think are the 10 best performing stocks of the last 25 years? While big names often steal the spotlight, some of the best performing stocks in the last 25 years are quiet achievers with steady, long-term returns.  Here, we uncover the 10 best-performing stocks and what sets them apart from the rest: https://bit.ly/4d59aER

While U.S. stocks were mixed last week, the S&P 500 ended the first quarter of 2024 up slightly over +10%. Performance was quite concentrated with only five stocks driving half the gain, and NVDA (up over +80%) accounting for a quarter of the indexes return by itself. Small caps, as represented by the Russell 2000, lagged for 1q24, but outperformed large caps in March as market performance began to broaden out. Read the full Weekly Market Update here: https://lnkd.in/gWf8NhdV

People have been excited about stocks recently, but the glass isn't all full. Over the past two years, plus or minus a few days, the equal-weighted S&P 500 index is flat to negative. Despite the recent April pull-back, the regular cap-weighted S&P 500 index is up around 9% since April 2022. What's even more interesting is that the equal-weight index was doing a little better than the regular S&P 500 from April 2022 to April 2023. They were both off about -10%. That means that all the gains for the S&P 500 over the past two years actually occurred during the past year, where it's gained nearly 21%. The equal-weight index is up nearly 10% since April 2023, to pull it back to even. And US small caps? they are down -6% over the past two years. My takeaway: only a handful of stocks are driving returns. And given the economic and rates backdrop, that's probably about right.

April is historically the second-best month of the year for stocks. Could we see a break in the trend this year? More on this in the Weekly Market Commentary. Link: https://lnkd.in/gQzRAW2E

The S&P 500's average return in September is -1.2%. Historically, this month tends to be the worst for stocks. There are 3 key takeaways from this chart: 1. The stock market goes up more often than it goes down. 2. The probability of a positive return in the S&P 500 increases the longer you hold your investments. 3. The S&P 500 often drops in September but usually bounces back in the following months.

How To Navigate A Narrowing Base. The S&P has been setting new record highs yet the underlying market has seen a deterioration in the number of stocks participating. When this most recent run-up began, our Composite of stocks we follow were at 87% with positive momentum. As of last Friday's close, it now sits at 62.75% #investing

September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks: The S&P 500 has fallen -2.3% on average in September over the last 10 years, marking the only month with negative returns. Since World War II, the average September return has been negative, at -0.8%. Moreover, the Volatility Index, $VIX, has seen an average spike of ~10% in September over the last 33 years. Subsequently, in October and November, the S&P 500 has seen a +1.6% and +3.8% rally on average. Markets are entering their most volatile period of the year. #buckleup

April is historically the second-best month of the year for stocks. Could we see a break in the trend this year? More on this in the Weekly Market Commentary.

September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks: The S&P 500 has fallen -2.3% on average in September over the last 10 years, marking the only month with negative returns. Since World War II, the average September return has been negative, at -0.8%. Moreover, the Volatility Index, $VIX, has seen an average spike of ~10% in September over the last 33 years. Subsequently, in October and November, the S&P 500 has seen a +1.6% and +3.8% rally on average. Markets are entering their most volatile period of the year.