Pleased to share my latest Daily Memo for Aviation Week Network, the title of which references the recent comment by Cathay Pacific CEO Ronald Lam that he foresees a future “ABC” market for commercial aviation—Airbus, Boeing and Comac—in which “triangular competition” will benefit the industry. Excerpts below:
Aviation Week’s forecast shows Comac in a distant third place, delivering 3% of commercial aircraft over the next decade—ahead of Embraer’s 2%. Comac is projected to deliver 332 ARJ21 and 281 C919 narrowbodies. Since Comac’s passenger jets are designed for regional flights of no longer than a few hours, the state-owned firm is eyeing sales opportunities in neighboring Southeast Asia in addition to its massive domestic market. On Feb. 27, Comac said that over the next two weeks it would conduct flying displays of its C919 and ARJ21 jets in Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, and Vietnam.
Comac could struggle to break into both the North American and European markets due to the challenges it faces in gaining certification from the FAA and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). Luc Tytgat, acting director of the EASA, told Reuters on March 14 that the C919 is “too new for us to know how easy or difficult it will be” to be approved by 2026 as Beijing wants. But as Kristine Liwag, an executive director at Morgan Stanley and head of the investment company’s aerospace and defense equity research group, noted at Aviation Week’s Aero-Engines Americas conference in Miami on Feb. 28 with regards to certification of Comac’s jets in the U.S. and Europe, “there are a lot of places you can go without touching those zones.”
If Comac is intent on competing outside of its home market, one issue it will need to address adroitly is the development of support infrastructure and technical support for its jets. Both are currently lacking.
The experience of Sukhoi Civil Aircraft’s Superjet could be instructive. During the Singapore Airshow in February, Eaton Industries’ Aerospace Group MD for Asia Pacific Desmond Goh noted that even though the Russian company “could sell the aircraft, they couldn’t support it. That’s why all the airlines and the customers struggled.”
#china #comac #aviation #airlines #supplychain #aerospace #boeing #airbus
Foreman at HIAP SENG ENGINEERING LTD
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